Post Covid - Immigration and Visas

It's super early days so we will all probably get this wrong but... what's people's thoughts on the likelihood of immigration and visa policy post...

a. lockdown removal without a vaccine?
b. lockdown removal with a vaccine?

Of course I assume that those things in fact occur at some point

My guess...
a. I see international travel as unlikely to be re-opened until there is a vaccine. The lobbyists may push to say that if you are coming from "X" country that is "safe" and can demonstrate no history of travel from "non-safe" places then let those people in. There would need to be a fair bit of discussion in the media about this to warm the public up to opening the borders again.

b. I see a large push from the public to drop immigration numbers if we end up with elevated unemployment figures. This gets amplified if the JobKeeper program ends and a wave of people transfer from "off the books unemployed" to "officially unemployed". Whether policy actually changes, I don't know.

 

I see some policy to encourage immigration, likely 14 quarantine will continue and let’s face it if your plan is to stay long term it’s not a big deal

Lockdown will be removed once enough are infected or we have an effective treatment

 

Thos will dampen down any travel from short term holiday makers but I think it's the way to go or else we'll have more uncontrolled outbreaks.

 

After 6 months of social distancing , the next politician that suggests we need to fill our cities with more people would probably have lynch mobs chasing after them.
After 12 months of no immigration , numbers would be down 160,000-200,000 people, then you have the estimated 120,000 Airbnb properties that are slowly making their way back onto the residential market, plus well over 150,000 foreign students missing , with a proportion that would use private rentals
The next question is how many investors would be prepared to jump back in the market after months of a "No Eviction" policy, which is unprecedented, throw in a trillion dollars of debt and unemployment levels not seen since the last recesion.
Many people would have blown most of their savings and annual leave, so spending will be very tight for a few years.

 

The gov has released a pandemic stream to a temporary activity visa. So for those who cant go to their countries can apply for this visa if they meet the requirements and have skills to work in essential industries.

Go figure..in times like this id want aussies to have first dibs for jobs.

 

MERS & SARS were both a CV. No vaccine was developed. Viral outbreaks fade.... Often before you can test it works ! Then a vaccine makes no commercial sense.

The spanish flu may have been a CV. Nobody knows. Killed 15,000 aussies 100 years ago. Millions worldwide.

Remember when nobody knew if a tsunami was real or overhyped folklore ? And one hit Thailand and nobody had seen or video'd one. Then Japan.....But the biggest on record was in our lifetime but nobody saw it. La Perouse did too. Remember him. Almost raised a French Flag in Sydney. Then he vanished. Taken out by a Tsunami. I went to Lituya Bay in Canada / Alaska. Its scary. It tells a regular story. But nobody other tha Father & son saw it so it didnt happen. A 500 metre high tsunami. Regularly. 1958. and each 50 years so so.

And nobody had video'd a volcanic eruption up close. Until White Is. Or Hawaii...Or...
Remember the last meteroite impact...Hmmm. Crap.
Or that San Andreas thing. Or Tokyo...Or....

History never repeats. Split Enz