NSW Post a Bargain Sydney 2019

I started window shopping in Sydney, a few interesting choices here and there but many still living on the high of the boom. Once it bottoms out and starts going sideways is when people that "have to sell" for whatever reason will meet the market.

My short term concern is with rising rental vacancies and landlords reducing rents. This is never a good thing.

 

That is the real worry...too much supply in the rental market..that will push prices down even further...

 

I haven't heard of anywhere off that much.. 1-2 properties doesn't really mean 'parts of Sydney'

354F North Rocks Road, Carlingford, NSW 2118

Looks like pretty good value?

 

Mulgoa (out near Penrith, is that still Sydney??).

Median house price $1.39 million in 2017, but has since dropped to $829,000. (41.4%).

 

Mulgoa's probably not a good example here. There's average 20 house transacted per year.. with some farms exceeding $2-3m, and new builds that probably skewed the data. If you look at RE, the median for 2017 is also different

A number of bargain's posted here are either with overhead transmission lines, main road, very sloppy land that are inferior

Could we be fair to Sydney and post some fair bargains?

 

It's a road a lot of people use. Pass.

 

Good points, what about this one?

354F North Rocks Road, Carlingford, NSW 2118

 

Wow. That's really bad. Must have been new mini mansions

 

Not as bad as Pennant Hills Rd but I would discount 3-5% with a comparable nearby that’s not North Rocks/ Pennants Hills Road, just purely on location. We are in a fallen market, buyers picky and only way we can lured them is with discount

 

Let's see how the next few weekends go.

 

That’s a main road and it’s not far from two service stations either side of it plus the (ex) Westfield shopping centre. It would be a super busy spot to live.

 

Is there a post a bargain for Melbourne?

I remember @sash saying there’d be less defaults there than Sydney but at the moment land defaults in Melbourne are 27% but I wonder what the housing defaults are. Where’s the floor for em do you think Sash? Is there a floor for the endless amount of land?


https://7news.com.au/news/melbourne-families-panic-selling-housing-blocks-on-gumtree-c-123839

 

Yup. Subdivisions that’s why that’s dropped

 

Yes...there a quite a few defaults of land in Sydney as well as Melbourne.

In Sydney...because the developers are stubbornly holding their prices nothing is selling...but people are also unable to settle...you just don'y hear about it. People like Stockland are just holding stock and have slowed land development down a lot.

In Melbourne...there are not a lot of defaults on stuff which people bought 3 years ago because the land is still good value. Usually they are a able to nominate for about 5-10k more in cash and the deal still stacks up. For example if someone has a contract price of 220k on land bought 2-3 years say 400sqm that is still good value. Someone is likely to take the risk and pay to have the block nominated to them. The land would till value up to 260k easily. In some area there is very little land and it has sold things down which makes title blocks attractive...but you have to cherry pick the areas. Some estates are a no go zone.

The real issue is Sydney...the prices are still crazy and people are being stubborn....I saw that happening in Perth...and what you find is that supply builds up to the point where prices drop dramatically....usually that is because people and developers were so stubborn....

 

What suburbs in Sydney are you guys keeping an eye for potential investment bargains in the sub-$1mil range? The yields are still **** poor in most areas, still better than yields in Melbourne I think.

 

The supply of Melbourne is nuts though. On market right now there’s 117 estates in Melbourne with 4250 listings for land in Melbourne whereas Sydney has 64 estates (in reality most of these are 30 lot estates) and 1500 lots on sale..

My worry for Melbourne (and I own in Werribee), is the supply sits there for a long long time and we’ll eventually be back at the prices of 3-4 yrs ago if we’re lucky (could be lower). 27% default on land is huge and worries me that it will eventually be even higher once bad sales start recording and valuers drop their valuations even more and it becomes a massive downward spiral of on-sellers not being able to sell it even at the price they purchased at. Sydney has nowhere near that supply which is why its so pricey but its def dropped. Will never be anywhere near as cheap as Melb though. Way less land and way more infrastructure and jobs around the estates which entices more owner occs to move.

Stockland has discounted their land by 20-30k in Sydney and it sells at that. They’re smart. They buy it at nothing and just slow things down when its quiet and ride it out.

 

Nope...not what I am seeing...sure in places like Tarneit and parts of Melton things are not moving...but but others it is doing okay. The supply is being soaked up...the real issue is people who bought 400sqm blocks for 300k. People who bought for under 240k are okay....

Stockland are idiots...they are arrogant...I saw this happen in WA. If you go to places like Marsden Park and their Estarte near Leppington...they are in trouble. Prices are dropping like a led ballon. Same as people who bought in places like the Ponds for over 500k...they are also dead in the water.

 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...-struggle-to-bounce-back-20190524-p51qoa.html

 

This is a good article as it points to the big equilibrium factor in any price movements (and also why I think price movements from demand rises will be relatively modest).

Prices only adjust upwards if the demand rise is greater than the supply response.

IMO there's going to be an demand increase. It defies almost economic relationships to suggest that interest rates are cut, borrowing power is boosted and the floor price is 20% lower yet there's no demand increase.

Its how supply tracks/responds that'll determine price impacts. Elevated levels of supply, potential 'ghost' supply (sellers/developers waiting in the wings to sell stock), etc will all weigh down the market.

 

Don’t forget about the zerobound Redom...also the reasons for cutting interest rates generally have little to do with property prices... indicating risk of recession is rising. Indeed we are already in a per capita recession.

Oh what the hell, let’s just enjoy the first piece of good news for Sydney property in 2 years.

BUY BUY BUY (joking)