WA Post a Bargain - Perth 2019

Discussion in 'Property Analysis' started by hematite, 1st Jan, 2019.

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  1. Damo93

    Damo93 Well-Known Member

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    If they pop over the other side of Reynolds Road to Booragoon first Id be happy :D
     
  2. Westminster

    Westminster Tigress at Tiger Developments Business Member

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    How about at the same time? I'm happy to share :)
     
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  3. Damo93

    Damo93 Well-Known Member

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    Sharing is caring :p
     
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  4. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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  5. spoon

    spoon Well-Known Member

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    Booragoon starts at west of Rogerson Road, so a bit of popping over to do. Still, I would be happy too if so happen :p We can walk to Garden City so it is a plus...
     
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  6. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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  7. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    I see... the market bottoming out... and the start of a V-shaped recovery starting next month. You heard it here first.
     
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  8. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

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    Spring 2019 was called a while ago because that is when rental listings crunch the most in Perth. 2019 specifically because listings are about to drop below what they were in 2014 (when rents were 10%+ higher). As well as this, rate cuts have now made it broadly cheaper to buy than rent in Perth, and as more landlords start asking for rent increases people will be more inclined to consider buying. This scenario is playing out for almost all of my friends renting in perth right now.

    To give some context to rental listings (how many there were this week each year):
    • 2013: 3,894
    • 2014: 5,876
    • 2015: 8,570
    • 2016: 10,952 (peak in June at 11,470)
    • 2017: 9,771
    • 2018: 7,484
    • 2019: 6,184
    There is a flattening out over xmas followed by another slide through February. without a doubt 2020 is going to be a good year to be a landlord in WA. Add this to the fact that new dwelling approvals are at record lows and population growth has been steadily recovering for 12 months + now, there is every reason to expect that rental listings may even drop below 5,000 in 2020.
     
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  9. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

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    Okay, so if the rent/ buy equation is finally shifting towards buying as you suggest then the effect will be to increase not decrease the vacancy rate.

    Specifically, once that households buys they are creating an additional vacancy in the market.

    For the vacancy rate to keep dropping despite this phenomenon there will need to be an increase in demand a drop in new rental supply or both.
     
  10. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

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    Consider rental vacancies a measure of un-used stock. Often houses that are for sale already have someone living in them, owner or rental (or a short-term vacancy during move). If a house is going to be vacant for a period of time, owners more often than not will rent it out (speaking from experience on that one..).

    Sellers also may very well be investors. Yes there is a small portion of investors who will leave a property empty, but those investors are also unlikely to be swayed by short-term market movements. If a renter buys a house then the person who was in that house now needs a new place to live. And if a tenant buys, the landlord now needs to do something.. perhaps they sell their house to someone else's tenant.

    As far as demand goes... in 2016 population growth was 16,000 people. at latest ABS data is is 25,000 people and climbing. Dwelling approvals (great measure of supply over coming 12 months) in 2016 were over 20,000. as of August they are 16,000. Far more people, less new supply, stock keeps contracting. We have relative certainty based on approvals that this trend will continue in 2020.
     
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  11. Bombers86

    Bombers86 Well-Known Member

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    I don't have all the preceding years of data back to 2014 but the vacancy rate reduction speaks for itself. As for the demand and supply, going off only this week's data on REIWA's website the numbers - sales activity is up over 25% this week compared to the same week last year. But total listings are down 15% on the same week last year.
     
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  12. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    Basically, new building approvals have halved over the last 4 years, whilst vacant rentals have halved over that same time also. Sure it's not a 1:1 ratio but it generally makes sense to me.
     
  13. VICPER

    VICPER Well-Known Member

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    To the gurus here, how do I find out which suburb has a high demand for rental?
     
  14. Shogun

    Shogun Well-Known Member

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    This thread and the other Perth thread as lots of useful info.

    I would locate a good property in your price range then worry about rental demand in that area as only one factor to consider.

    Just because a suburb has good rental demand doesn't always mean it is a good suburb to spend your money in but ymmv

    6021 has seven 2 bedroom units for rent on Real estate page. Doesn't mean it is a good area to invest in.
     
  15. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    I doubt it, generally.

    Maybe in pockets of Perth, maybe even some new subdivisions - but not as a median.
     
  16. Westminster

    Westminster Tigress at Tiger Developments Business Member

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    If you go on the REIWA website and look at their market research section you can look at maps for yield and you can drill down to each suburbs to see which ones have lowest vacancy which should tally to high demand. Note that you can have a dwelling type within a high vacancy rate suburb which is in high demand. For example a four bedroom house in a suburb full of 3 bedders can buck the trend and you won't be able to see that generally by looking at data
     
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  17. Damo93

    Damo93 Well-Known Member

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  18. thatbum

    thatbum Well-Known Member

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  19. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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  20. KB_

    KB_ Active Member

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    I'd say it must be, $320k for $640 a week rent is the stuff of dreams :eek:
     
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