Population growth on the increase

If there is one thing that most on here can agree on, it is that, broadly, population growth is good for property prices..

Very strong recent numbers due to immigration net flow, particularly in NSW and Victoria!

QLD showed some signs of recent uptick also, could be due to summer approching

Australian population growth is picking up speed again, thanks to immigration

 

Interesting - NSW population increase is entirely due to overseas migration as interstate migration is negative.

 

...& natural increase (births > deaths).

 

Net interstate migration has always been negative from NSW.

For decade after decade, migrants have come to Sydney, and Sydneysiders have moved out.



Which explains why 1.78 million people in Sydney were born overseas (as at the 2016 Census, it would be even more now).

 

Yep, fascinating.

Sydney does well when OS immigration is higher, like recently...

 

Ok. Who hacked DowntownAbbys account and put up a positive thread?

 

Yes, very interesting. Most of my aunts, uncles and cousins lived in Sydney while I was growing up and now everyone is out of there. My brothers moved out about six years ago when I did. We'd had family there since the 2nd fleet. Looks like that's not an unusual phenomenon.

 

Well, yes and no. Growth is up a little but it's still well down from the 2009 and 2013 peaks. It's also relatively low on a long-running average (for all you hear about mass immigration). What's interesting is most of the rapid growth is occurring in Melbourne. Sydney on 1.6% is sitting on the low side of the long term trend, and much lower than recent highs, so though it's still making up a huge chunk of overall migration you can see why Sydney is slowing down. Melbourne on the other hand has had quite a spike.

 

According to those abs results, Victoria increased 146,000 till march.
Last years abs results till September 2016 was 127,498 people. That's 18,502 more than last years increase already and results have not been counted till September as yet.

 

@petewargent what do you make of the ABS component data (natural, IS and OS migration) not adding up to total population change since June-16?

I am considering scaling migration stats proportionate to the difference between total population growth for each state and the sum of components. That way it will be more reflective of actual migration changes, but its highly uncertain. what's your approach?

 

Due to adjustment for intercensal difference?

Census showed VIC population growth was tracking way faster than estimated, & WA much slower.

 

End of the boom is nigh in Sydney & a bit more life in Melbourne. White goods, homewares & furniture sales to crash, ditch your Harvey Norman shares now.

 

To early, white goods have at least 2 years after markets turn.

 

Shhhhhh!

 

Yeah but you are looking at % not numbers.

The numbers are double the long term average. It is insane.

 

Yeah. it looks as though only total state change was adjusted for intercensal difference, and the interstate, overseas, and natural components were not. For all timestamps Jun-2016 and prior, the component data does not match the state total change (the adjusted stat).

For VIC, I estimate that the june 2016 overseas migration is under quoted by ~7,700, and interstate by ~3000, so the step increase we are seeing is not as dramatic as they are being made out (though still record breaking and note-worthy).

For WA, this has the effect of over-quoting growth through 2014 and 2015. Adjusting the migration statistics for the intercensal state total, WA likely had an overseas migration loss for 4 quarters during 2014/15, however the migration statistics are showing a stable, low, and positive. This understates the downturn and misses the pickup during 2016/17.

 

Just keep packin' 'em into an already over-crowded and cranky city and everyone can put a granny flat in their yard.
A lot of people in their heads on this thread. Stats are good and dissecting which stats came from where, no harm in that, and how this percentage compares to that percentage,but some real experience in the place you're talking about doesn't go astray. At least some are onto the fact that immigration has been one of the main (at times the major) ever-increasing driver /s in Australia since WW2.

 

Yes but that's not what you pay attention to in population growth movements because society expands to compensate for larger population, as it has done for the entire span of human existence. More people happen, so we build more stuff, and society gets bigger.

What matters is how quickly the population grows. That gives an idea of how quickly society will/can adapt. If populations grow very quickly, it puts a lot of pressure on infrastructure, inflation, house prices etc, because those things can't necessarily adapt as quickly as people can arrive. In the context of property, building houses takes a lot of time, and if there are more people than current houses you've got a supply problem. If populations grow slowly, it is much easier for the economy to absorb the excess arrivals even if they are more numerous than in the past. If population growth slows down (especially if it does this very quickly as it did between 2009 and 2016), you can wind up with a supply glut because real estate markets respond slowly.

That being said, sometimes it's hard to know what's going on based on population stats. Population shifts can happen at lightning speed. In Ireland for example we went from 2.9% annually in 2007 to 0.2% by 2011. But in the early 2000s, population growth was spiking, and continued to do so even after the market had peaked. If you'd looked at population growth, jobs growth, GDP growth in 2007 you could have been pretty confident in saying the market was not slowing down. I think part of the problem was the investment-property glut just grew too quickly even for strong population growth to fill.

For Australia we need to think about the growth rate. It's honestly not that high historically. Melbourne is a bit more rapid than Sydney, but for Sydney it seems like a possible warning sign. People are not creating households as fast as homes are being built. In Melbourne, that population spike has been pretty quick, and prices are growing, but there are still plenty of assets in Melbourne entering oversupply. I think it highlights the need to look at owning quality assets than families are going to want to live in. Investors make up half the market, and that half is going to be fickle, because many are holding for profit and too many have very short-term expectations.

The best bet is catering to the half made up by people wanting homes to live in. If you compete with them (i.e. you hold the assets they want) you're on solid ground because that group wants to establish households, not hot for profit. Surround yourself with assets being held by owners, in good suburbs, where you're not at risk of a wave of developer or investor panic selling. Don't surround yourself with assets owned mostly by other investors, especially if there are a lot of similar assets around you (so really I'm saying avoid apartments like the plague).