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Population Growth Doesn’t Have The Influence That You Think”.

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by See Change, 5th Dec, 2015.

  1. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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  2. York

    York Finance Broker Business Member

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    Interesting indeed Cliff.
     
  3. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Now I am really confused:)
     
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  4. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the link. I wouldn't dismiss population growth, but I think the author has some merit in pointing out that it's the economy and jobs that drive prices. For example look at the boom to bust mining towns. When there were high paying jobs on offer houses were selling for ridiculous prices and receiving ridiculous amounts of rent because the workers were getting paid enough to stimulate the costs. However, obviously that wasn't sustainable in the long-term and ended in tears for many.

    As for capital cities and metropolitan population growth I think it comes down to scarcity. If a suburb dramatically increases it's population the way it usually has done it is by building high density living to accommodate the extra people. High density tends to be cheaper as it's got less land content. Exclusive suburbs and the suburbs that are well-held will never have much population growth because they're held by NIMBYs so there will always be a lack of supply, but strong demand to live in those suburbs.
     
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  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    nice summary, now I am not confused:) I agree
     
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  6. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Population is not just the main factor, otherwise India would have the most expensive property market in the world.
     
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  7. Esel

    Esel Well-Known Member

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    I found this article really hard to follow at points. I dont think its very well written so i dont trust the analysis. Hopefully someone with a better grasp of statistics can critique it.

    these points struck me;

    - It took a very long, rambling time to arrive at the point.

    - some of the terms/stats/maps were confusing, misleading, contradictory or poorly explained.

    - The use of the term 'population mass' was a bit irritating. I think the author invented this term and i dont think it adds any more clarity than the usual term population size.

    - The author pointed out that migration increased in 2008 while house price growth was low. i think this has more to do with the GFC (which wasnt mentioned in the article) than any negative relationship between house prices and population.

    Having said all that, i didnt realise that darwin and hobart experienced the 1st and 3rd largest change in median house price 2000-2014. That surprised me.
     
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I think it can be dangerous and misleading when stats are viewed over a long period ie 10+ years because there are so many variables in between that can distort for example GFC as you mentioned

    I must admit I take this information with a grain of salt, because what am I going to do with it? it's not going to help me, in a way it confuses me, but that's ok I am confused most of the time:)

    MTR
     
    Last edited: 5th Dec, 2015
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  9. Dmarkw

    Dmarkw Well-Known Member

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    I agree regarding time frame MTR and was thinking the same as I read some through the article. Interesting article nonetheless, and good collection of stats.

    It's not just time frames, but start and end points. Where there is a lag between for example population growth and house price growth, measuring a defined window doesn't capture the full growth impact. Also long time frame may capture multiple growth cycles with different drivers.
     
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  10. Esel

    Esel Well-Known Member

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    The premise of the article is that population growth 'doesn't have the impact that you think'.

    Then in the conclusion he explains that actually its supply, demand and sentiment that determine property values and population growth is just one pressure on demand. I would imagine that thats exactly what most people would assume, as shown by all the agreement on here about oversupply of inner city units and warnings about land at the urban fringe.

    It was a very long winded way to say population growth has some Impact.
     
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  11. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    The author Simon pressley has pointed out some great facts that population increase is not the driver of property prices. He's not the only person that has done this. This info is continuously pointed out by many authors and researches that predict property busts. It's used to give examples such as....
    Monaco 18,005 inhabitants per km2
    Hong Kong 6,544 inhabitants per km2
    London. 5,354 inhabitants per km2
    New York. 10,725 inhabitants per km2
    Sydney. 380 Inhabitants per km2

    Going by the info, population increase is not what drives prices, otherwise how would we explain high prices in Sydney.

    He's a regular of late, on your money your call with Margaret lomas, I usually don't like hearing what he has to say on the show, but the info above does make sense.
     
  12. Darren A

    Darren A Well-Known Member

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    He has left out the No 1 reason for property price increases which imo is availability of bank finance to purchase property.
     
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  13. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    I think he got it spot on , in particular by including sentiment in the mix . I think that's long over looked and that's what you can pick up by

    If there's no demand / positive sentiment , then all the finance availability does nothing .....

    Cliff
     
  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Market sentiment is big and definitely a driver.
    We are now reading negative reports in media, pretty sure I know what this means.

    Finance - lower interest rates help drive markets.
    Now we are seeing interest rates rise, this is why in part we are now seeing cracks form in various markets around Australia.

    MTR:)
     
  15. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    we've seen one interest rate rise and promise of a further cut .

    Sydney , which was getting to the top anyway has slowed , but some markets seem to be going ok .

    Just a matter of buying in the right ones .

    Cliff
     
  16. Esel

    Esel Well-Known Member

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    From the article:

    'Generally speaking, locations with a large population mass already have expensive housing so the potential for growth can be less than locations with smaller populations.'

    Presuming he means capital growth and not population growth, Isn't this only true if demand increases in cheaper areas because buyers are priced out of expensive areas? So there is more demand generated by wealthier buyers and/or a greater number of buyers.

    And why does he think that areas with with large population 'mass' (whatever that is) already have more expensive housing?
     
  17. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Not really. Not unless there is demand to take up the available finance. In Perth right now credit is cheap and available, but prices are plummeting - no demand. There is this myth that available credit drives up prices. That's not true if there are no/few buyers. Therefore, availability of bank finance is not the No 1 reason for property price increases.

    Exactly. Prices in Perth are falling because of lack of demand. All the finance availability in the world can't fix that.

    Of course demand and credit driving up prices are inextricably linked. All the demand with no credit mean prices won't increase. Available credit with no demand means that prices won’t increase. It takes both: demand and available credit to drive up prices. Which makes demand the No 1 reason for property price increases and available credit the No 2 driver. But without both, prices won’t increase.
     
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  18. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    You mean Brissy?

    Perth has tanked, Sydney pockets are falling, if you look at cycles Syd has started to turn, its only a matter of time, before other markets are effected. Melbourne showing signs of slowing down, Adelaide been flat for years? other markets well I don't believe we have seen growth?? not in the last 2 years.

    Don't bet on a interest cut? Even if RBA cuts rates, there are no guarantees banks will pass it on. In fact lending is tightening, if we think its tough today, it will be harder next year.

    I am looking at the big picture not necessarily Brissy.

    Market sentiment will most definitely effect all markets.

    You did mention market sentiment impacts on markets, and I totally agree with you on this point. We have no control over this unfortunately.
     
    Last edited: 7th Dec, 2015
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  19. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    I also agree with this.
    Does the time period start for one city at the end of a property boom but at the beginning of another.

    But still a good article, some interesting take outs.
     
  20. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, sentiment will impact in all markets but not to the same degree. Depends on where the market is in the cycle and relative affordability. For instance, a 25bp hike [ lets just assume its passed on in full by the banks for illustrations] will have a greater impact on Sydney, which is already stretching a lot of peoples budget more than somewhere like Brisbane [ or maybe even Adelaide] where salaries are only marginally lower yet house prices are significantly lower. the person looking to invest in Brisbane/Adelaide is going to be able to withstand a 25bp hike more easily than someone looking to invest in sydney.
     
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