Poll: Where will outperform over next ten years – Brisbane or Sydney?

Interesting that the poll as of today has Sydney in the lead 22 votes to Brisbane 19. To take the position that Sydney will do better in the next 10 years is saying that the pattern of growth of the two cities over the last 50 years will no longer be the case into the future. It is saying that unlike every time in the past where periods of divergence have consistently been followed by realignment, now Sydney will keep powering away while Brisbane languishes behind.

I don't buy it. What has fundamentally changed in the current cycle to make this the case? Sydney has always been a bigger city, it has always been the financial center of the country, it has always been the preferred location for settling migrants, but regardless of all that it has never moved much past double the median of Brisbane. 4 times over the data range the Sydney median has reached double that of Brisbane, and every time it had been followed by a period of flatter growth while Brisbane played catch-up. We are in that exact position again, why will this time be different?

 

There are US and Chinese cities where housing in tier 1 cities keeps getting more and more expensive and the tier 2 cities go nowhere. I think we might see this. And people with money will choose where they want to live, and it tends to be in certain cities.

 

Sure
But what is interesting is historically Brisbane booms after Sydney, yet it never happened. Melb did. Just shows dont look as past as an indicator moving forward


However, there are markets within markets, I hear some areas close to city in Bris are rising now?? No idea, not looking. Perhaps others know

 

Doesnt it show exactly that? Ratio for Perth increased 2012 to 2014 indicating asset appreciation.

 

I cant see it? Are we looking at the same chart?

 

@MTR This post. Perth is dotted line

 

your right...... thx

OP referred to last boom/bust Perth cycle 2007, no mention of the 2013/14 boom. I assumed It was not shown on chart..... OMbad

 

I don’t think SYdney is that expensive by international city standards and has plenty of room to grow further. I mean quality apartments in Mumbai or Bangkok are US$2-5M. if the population grows to 8-10M, then house/land prices won’t be stagnant that’s a certainty.

Having said that, I sense Brisbane has a very bright future post Covid. the Olympics if won will put the city on the map. West end, South Bank, New Farm, Burleigh, Noosa, Dayboro, Stradbroke - SEQ has a hell of a lot going for it lifestyle wise!

 

Have we even officially made a bid? I remember there was a pre-election promise but I just assumed it was nothing but a pre-election promise, and nothing more than that.

 

Last I heard they were still thinking about it.

 

The bid has been placed on hold to focus on the Covid-19 Recovery ... refer to the article below:
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/queens...o host the,economic impact of border closures.

 

Looking at historical averages would lead to the answer being Brisbane. However, it appears that Australia is following the USA and growth is becoming much more polarised. Since Sydney boomed post-GFC people have been predicting Brisbane to boom and it hasn’t happened yet. COVID-19 throws a spanner in the works, but assuming society goes back to normality I think Sydney will keep growing faster than Brisbane. High paying jobs, geographically limited and 100k+ people each year all requiring land. Affordability constraints appear to be offset by people choosing to rent or buy medium/high density.