POLL: What are you going to do in the current market Aug-Sept 2019?

Taken from another thread, I had the idea of creating a poll to understand the sentiment of those within this community. There are many threads circulating talking about the same issues, maybe we can just summarise it here with a vote only.

The community is very experience, knowledgeable and respectively listens to other peoples views. The more people vote, the more confidence we will have with the results and this may help others decide if they will purchase, hold or sell into the future.

I have tried to base the Poll Options on similar markets you can only have a maximum of 10 options. You can vote with a maximum of 3 options or just 1 and it will be anonymous.

Feel free to leave a comment if you wish with only:
- Area
- Either Buy, Sell or Hold

The Poll will close in 7 days

 

Hold and watch Syd market.

Sydney appears to be improving. Just hope it's not a dead cat bounce.

 

I think it’s a dead cat bounce, a flattening at best. If world economy stumbles soon, Sydney and Melbourne will slide some more.

 

I'm going to do what I've done for the past few years: SFA
Given that I've had no serviceability since the APRA changes, I've been forced to the sidelines.

 

Syd: hold
Melb: hold
Brisbane: build and looking to buy soon.
Adelaide: No interest to buy soon
Perth: interest to buy maybe 12 to 18 months
NT: No interest to buy ever
Canberra: No interest to buy anytime soon.

 

I think you are right. I'd normally just sit and wait, but I've got a reno mid way through that is going to be sold.

 

Would a dead cat bounce require all things to stay the same and prices to go up temporarily by them self simply on a change of sentiment or speculation?

Have enough factors changed that the current change is not a dead cat bounce but rather a real bottom,

By this I mean the changes in interest rates and APRA have created a real shift in borrowing and Liberal party winning as opposed to Labor creates certainty in the market.
In so the market changed and so did the Property landscape.


I believe dead cat analogy does not apply here.

What do you think?

 

Renovate PPOR in Sydney, not making hasty decisions, working on increasing income, building a buffer for a bad economy/good time to get bargains.

 

I tend to agree. The lower interest rates have given believe to many of my friends that they now can afford a property. This is due to the current lowering, and forecasts by the media/government/RB that there will be future drops to interest rates.

So whilst property values may bounce slightly, the actual "Cost" of owning a property is less. A 1% drop for IR on a $1mil loan is roughly a $200k saving over the 30years. So if prices rise $200k tomorrow, the cost is neutral over the long term.

 

It will be interesting to see how handles things if vacancy rates continue to go in the wrong direction. Its also burning through water and will get very very low even before the desal plant can be upgraded.
More people = more water.

 

I'm currently building in Brisbane and will be selling in the new year. I'll be buying a PPR in sydney straight after that. It's not about the market for me, can't wait to get out of a rental.

 

Couldn’t vote for any of the above options wrt our IPs.

We are B+H investors, in pension phase.

So we will be doing nothing, not even watching the market.

We will get on enjoying life.

 

Interesting to note that quite a few investors are saying it is deadcat bounce in Sydney ....I concur.

The real issue is the economy....

 

Yes, you are right. It also changes the rent vs buy equation for some.

E.g. if mortgage rates have dropped from:
- 4% to 3% there is 25% reduction in monthly mortgages payments.
- 4% to 2% there is a 50% reduction in monthly mortgages payments.
So it changes the rent vs buy equation and suddenly taking on debt seems more viable than paying out rent.

In the longer term is this a good thing: no comments that's a different discussion.

 

Pray for rain!

I was surprised to see how many countries are in drought. Pretty bad in California. It's as dry as a...over there. Woudn't take much to set that tinder box alight not to mention the effect on food supply.

 

Not going to do anything ,what happens happens just intend hopefully at my age past failures and the scars are long gone just look after my family ,and each morning say it's going to be the best day of my life..

Don't need to sell or buy anything , looking back i don't need the complexity of working out which way the markets will go ,as there is enough social influences analysis professionals that give different interpretations..
Then next day,they say ''Sorry'' so they can do the same as before..

 

The cat isn’t really dead - it was taken off stimulatory life support for a while but has been put right back on life support !!

 

The impact is significant but it's not quite that big an impact.

A $1M loan over 30 years costs $4,774 a month over 30 years at 4% IR. If interest rates drop to 3% the same repayments are on a mortgage of about $1,132,000 so the increased loan amount is $132k. There's also about $10k more in stamp duty, etc and if people don't have >20% deposit there would also be LMI to consider. Overall the affordability would probably improve by about $100k so it's still significant.

 

Purchased another development block in Frankston, Vic last week with approved permit for 23 apartments and commencing build next month.

Whilst I remained very-bearish until about May this year and bought a few development blocks during the downturn, I am starting build on almost all my development projects and believe they will be ready by Dec 2020, which I believe will be well within this boom-cycle.

I do not believe this is a 'dead cat bounce' - this is the start of a new cycle which based on the speed & quantum of the U-turn surprised everyone and has a lot of juice left in it to run its course before any change in direction is observed.

People underestimate the value and power of 'momentum' with the change in sentiment. I have seen this across all 4 of the previous cycles that I observed. It is like a steam-engine which takes a significant time to stop even when the fundamentals start changing and 'data' and 'commonsense' might dictate otherwise.

This massive-momentum has already driven values up c10% in the areas that I am now getting info from on a daily basis and tracking prop values and by the time markets find out that values increased c10% b/w May and Aug, (by sep/oct)you are talking another 7% odd increase by the end of this CY.