Crypto Poll: Hows it going to end for Bitcoin?

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by Blueskies, 28th Nov, 2017.

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Poll: How's it going to end for Bitcoin?

  1. Near worthless by the end 2017

    2 vote(s)
    1.7%
  2. Near worthless by the end 2018

    13 vote(s)
    11.2%
  3. Near worthless in the next 5 years

    40 vote(s)
    34.5%
  4. Volatile but finding some stability in the future

    35 vote(s)
    30.2%
  5. Steady gains continuing well into the future

    7 vote(s)
    6.0%
  6. Continuing to shoot the lights out, $100k plus in the next decade!

    21 vote(s)
    18.1%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    Ok, so Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies seem to well and truly be in the zeitgeist. I am seeing pop up ads spruiking Bitcoin trading platforms, articles on news.com, blue collar factory workers at my work talking about trading cryptocurrencies, a surge of PC posts on the topic, the list goes on.

    My thoughts, the great man Warren Buffett once said be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Based on the greed I am seeing and the ridiculous claims of future growth and paths to instant riches we should be at 1 minute to midnight, DEFCON 5 levels of fear at the moment.

    I'm putting my thoughts on the record, you couldn't pay me enough to take a stake in cryptocurrencies. You can go on about the great opportunity of the blockchain, and decentralized currency free from interference of Federal Banks, but I just see a massive speculative bubble with an underlying "asset" with virtually no real intrinsic value. My feeling - if it makes it to the end of 2017 at the current trajectory I would expect to see it lose at least 50% of its value by the first half of 2018, with a real possibility of crashing down into the sub hundred dollar values again before the end of next year. Don't get me started on all the other offshoots...

    Having said that, curious to hear thoughts from other learned investors on the topic, perhaps I am just stuck in the past with my views on how to value an asset and need to get with the times!
     
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  2. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Extremely hard to make a call on value. Personally I’ll use crypto when it’s widely adopted, price is stable and does what it claims. I have no interest in speculating on it as an asset class, any more than I have in currency or gold.

    Plenty of hubris on display and lots of varieties of cog bias/misjudgment but to be expected. Watching with interest former naysayers jumping on board due to fomo which is often a five minutes to midnight sign.
    BTC Could go to 100k. No idea :)
     
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  3. Xenia

    Xenia Well-Known Member

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    Omg
    How is it going to end???
    Really!!!
     
  4. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    I've given up trying to predict it....We were at Defcon 5 when it hit 2k 4 years ago....

    It's still worth a "play". Learn about crypro, put a few hundred bucks in, see how it does/doesn't work etc. It's an idea that is here to stay.

    You would be a fool to treat it as an investment though.
     
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  5. OscarBravo

    OscarBravo Well-Known Member

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    Over the last couple of years BTC has had downswings of over 80% multiple times. Can't see people who have just started piling in now being able to "hodl" through that.
     
  6. Xenia

    Xenia Well-Known Member

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    Smart people embrace the technology, build businesses and contribute

    Fools jump in so they don’t miss out.

    Fear does not make money
     
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  7. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    Ok, could reword slightly, don't mean end as in completely disappear, there are still diehards using MySpace, Yahoo etc, rather how will the current round of irrational exuberance end.

    Strongly disagree, unless you are talking about FOMO. Proper risk assessment and the preservation of capital should always be top of mind.
     
    Xenia likes this.
  8. djyella

    djyella Well-Known Member

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    $100k in the next decade? More like next year. It'll hit $100k before it crashes. Why? All the bulls expect it to hit $100k, its a self fulfilling prophecy.
     
  9. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    I kinda hope you're wrong. If it hits 100k then crashes it won't just be Bitcoin that we're worrying about...
     
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  10. TheRayTracer

    TheRayTracer Well-Known Member

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  11. Martinez22

    Martinez22 Well-Known Member

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    There are two important factors to being considered a valid currency: 1. ease of transactions as a medium of exchange
    2. being a storehold of wealth

    Bitcoin is volatile in both aspects atm, plus people will probably start to use it for tax evasion so its only a matter of time before there is legislation/heavy tariffs
     
  12. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I am playing with some of the other top 10 coins. I am hedging my bets on Monero (XMR). I could have picked any of the other 8 in the Top-10 but this is what I decided to "gamble"on for very many reasons I won't go into here and it payed off handsomely in the last 6 months. What will it do going forward? Who knows ...

    In any case, never gamble more than what you can afford to loose and all that.
     
  13. chi.lam

    chi.lam Well-Known Member

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    Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The Blockchain technology has real world applications, take for example Kodak announcing a coin to allow photographers to be paid fairly for their work.

    Yes there is a lot of speculation right now and FOMO. Which is why there is such volatility. If you research more into what the world of crypto is all about and how it works, it'll be apparent that it's here to stay. We are only at the beginning.
     
  14. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Ye olde Kodak coin stinks like a bucked of 100 day old prawns. It's a dodgy ICO that couldn't get off the ground so they just paid Kodak for the brand.

    You're right though the Crypto genie is indeed out of the bottle and it will never go back in. It is at its core a fundamentally amazing idea that will probably change the world.

    However I suspect that it will cop a fair flogging at some point before it all equalizes out. The insanity meter is in overdrive.....as the Kodak coin illustrates.
     
  15. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    "Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The Blockchain technology has real world applications, take for example Kodak announcing a coin to allow photographers to be paid fairly for their work"

    So now a photographer can choose to be paid in an ephemeral blockchain 'token' processed on by a data mining centre in China with a volatile value that changes from day to day which could be worthless tomorrow, which could completely evaporate if the exchange goes down or the offsite storage system is lost or corrupted, which probably can't be declared as business income on finance applications, which virtually no other business will accept as payment?

    The future is here! Who needs EFT cash payments! Sell bank shares! :rolleyes:
     
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  16. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    It's all ********* presently have to say... there is no logic to it.. Following Asian gamblers is not really a strategy.

    So many religious type posts on crypto lately I haven't seen in about 10 years (speculative mining bubble). How old are these kids?
     
  17. chi.lam

    chi.lam Well-Known Member

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    What you're describing is the environment of today. In time, with wider adoption, it won't be like that.

    Here's news just in of another major coin, Ripple, teaming up with MoneyGram. Ripple surges after teaming up with MoneyGram on cryptocurrency-enabled payments There are real world benefits and applications to crypto.
     
  18. chi.lam

    chi.lam Well-Known Member

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    Oh and this at the end of that article "In November, the firm teamed up with American Express and Santander on a blockchain pilot to speed up cross-border payments between the U.K. and the U.S."

    It'll be a brave person to say that these decisions by executives in 3 different worldwide companies is all *********.
     
  19. KinG3o0o

    KinG3o0o Well-Known Member

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    just now is all speculative *********, its a tech that always can be improved, if cryto is for real in the long game, we are just betting on who is the one gonna be adopted in the real world.

    just like pot stocks..

    block chain its a tech so there will always be a 2.0 - 3.0 etc
    just like ether is btc 2.0
     
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  20. Depreciator

    Depreciator Well-Known Member

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    My brother-in-law called me all excited the other day about a crypto he had heard about called Hempcoin. A mate of a mate of his has apparently 'made heaps' on it and everyone should buy some. I think there is another one called Potcoin - ostensibly for the growers of legal hemp to use.
    What are we up to now? 1,500 crypto currencies?
    How many of them are used as an actual currency? Not many, I imagine.
    The ones that have traction as a currency I assume will survive the shakeout when it comes.
    I have some Ethereum that I bought last year, but not enough to be of much consequence. Just a token number to help me take an interest in the whole phenomenon.
    Scott
     
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