Peter Thornhill 2021

I too think that's a suckers game.
But being sorta right or right-ish, or half right is genrally beats the crowd and the index.
What counts is having a plan.

 

I've posted this previously but I still believe this is one of the better discussions concerning the worries surrounding share markets. Very insightful I feel.

 

I certainly hope they did as your face would be sad one if they didn't. Am I correct?

 

Sure! You can adopt me.

 

yeah , my brain thinks like that also , BUT i look at SOME prices and start thinking that QBE is a fair price , and HVN has some weird but successful moves ( i should add a few more ) and i have always been attracted to TWD ( so bought a few of them ) look at those APE , and CMW

not big buys but i got some in case the market did recover ( despite my predictions , so i used some of that cash reserve but NOT all of it )

i did OK but could have done much better if knew where the bottom would be

i guess that is the silver lining of never being a perfect tipster

 

cautious stabs would be more accurate for me last year ,

i did OK but could have done better if i was more aggressive with the buying

went BIG on APE @ $2.63 for example , but even with careful moves APE is currently my largest holding anyway even after recovering the cash invested in June

but 2020 was OK for me despite nearly always being very cautious

 

I read it last year - imagine my surprise when I found it in our local library!

It had some major plot holes (oh the confirmation bias! Start your back testing from the perfect time to prove you're right when though the data goes beyond that time), lots of repetition and some parts have aged poorly - but on the whole a great guide to income investing for Australians.

Personally if I was to go that route I would not exclude resources though, which helps a lot as you then can pick AFI or ARG which are lower cost and more liquid than the WHFs of the world. How easy would that be: 100% into AFI and just watch the income and franking credits roll in each year....

 

Oddly enough it also happens with ALI, ARG, AUI, DUI, MIR, MLT and a few others

Hmm, I recall it was mentioned by somebody they were not in love with dividends. Wonder if they are amenable to selling them to me (mates rates will apply of course.)

 

I understand his favourite Lic's are ARG,BKI,MLT & WHF, that was a little whike ago so it may have changed, but coverage of resources in most of those.

 

I would, but I promised to return them straight back to the companies (via new purchases).

You could probably pick one, 3 or all of them and end up with the same outcome. Like an ETF I would go the lowest cost, most likely to not change strategy, and largest and be happy with that.

There's something to be said for the simplicity and consistency of large LICs. Maybe when it's super drawdown time they'll be my reinvestment vehicle of choice.

 

I took the easy option & own all of them .

 

Can you pick too many, which in turn will effect long term growth??? Just saying

 

those who like a bit of adventure might keep an eye out for a replacement for WHFPB ( convertible preference shares ) when they mature near the end of the year , obviously details count , but a reasonable amount of fixed interest and the conversion into shares at a later date may have some attractions

i put some money in CAMPA and later CAMG to get a similar result , but CAM's recent strategy shifts might make some investors uneasy ( the ' if it ain't broke , don't mess with it ' school of thought )

 

The focus of the approach is growing income @MTR. Any capital growth is a fortunate side effect but not to be relied upon.

 

i would argue , and i bet many will disagree , NO

however would you buy multiple LICs ( or ETFs ) of the same style in the same week , i would think not

i was more suggesting that one might say , have bought MLT around the share split ( i tried but missed the target price ) sure buy as many as you wish but at those moments when the entry price is lower , or there is some other advantage of one LIC over it's peers .

 

Same can apply when selling. I will give a personal example.

When I retired in 2010, I bought a sizeable chunk of DMP/Domino shares via several tranches over a few years, average cost base of $33.

By 2016, I more than double my money as the share price went up to $76. I could have/should have sold a portion/all of my shares but didn’t because I convinced myself they will/might go higher.

By June 2019, their share price fell to $38, a drop of 50%. I was seriously thinking of bailing out before all of my profit was wiped out. I just couldn’t pull the trigger as I was hoping/praying they had hit the bottom.

Then COVID hit. By February this year, the share rose to $110 (even now it is $106). That is a rise of 290% in less than 2 years.

DMP was my best share in 2020.

Have I sold any yet? Nope.

Buying might be difficult but, for me, selling is *******’ impossible.

Lucky I am a B+H investor. My approach should be “Buy, then close one’s eyes/ears, ...” but I haven’t perfected that yet.

 

despite my tendency to participate in DRPs ( when available ) , yes that is my long term aim as well , i am aiming to withdraw from selected DRPs , when i start to need more div. income ( rather than sell down holdings solely for income supplementation)

i thought i might have had to start that process in Jan. 2020 , but so from keeping the DRPs in play has been an unexpected luxury

 

Balderdash. There can be specific reasons for doing so, especially if, say, ARG offers an SPP either available to prospective purchasers or there are multiple SPPs on offer.

While the circumstances may not happen often they do occur.

Think a little deeper than you presently do would be a good thing.

 

am not familiar with how ARG does it's SPPs , but if i REALLY want to take up and offer i would ring up the full service broker and buy through the 'institutional investor' account ( obviously a large amount of shares )

currently i am quite content with cautious dabbles , until i can see where the local and global economies are going ( it looks like ' to Hell in a hand-basket , but i could be wrong on that ' )

for instance when CMW does a SPP , i have holdings in two accounts , just worked out that way i can choose IF to participate , which account to use , or participate in both , or of course ring that full-service broker

one account participates in the DRP 100% and the other only partially participates in the DRP ( when the DRP is active )

CAM for an example offers convertible hybrids to raise extra funds , and i adjust my holding via those ( most of the time )

more complex ABSOLUTELY , but i have the time to fiddle about like that ( and other people love gardening or fishing )

 

Mate, I am sure you are a nice person. However, it is a worry you post making a claim as per the first quote above and then inform us you actually don't know how an LIC such as ARG operates an SPP should it offer one.

On a number of occasions you have said in various threads you are at home a lot and have time to do research. Yet, while you claim to have an interest in LICs and ETFs, it doesn't appear you have been doing any structured research but are simply applying a shotgun approach and then make posts which are full of inconsistencies and errors.

While most of us can work through the slush and ignore it, there may be newbies who will find it totally confusing and off putting. That is a shame.

I don't expect you to change. I don't consider that is possible. That's all fine and by all means keep posting. However, while there are many good and very patient people on this forum there may be limits to that. So be aware of that and do not be surprised if some responses to one of your future posts could be considered somewhat harsh.