Peter Thornhill 2021

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by Aston Marersa, 2nd Jan, 2021.

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  1. monk

    monk Well-Known Member

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    Hi @Big A, I have never earned a big salary let alone one well above the average though I always respect those who have done so such as yourself. But fortunately I've always worked, spent less than I earned & saved consistently,
    My earlier attempts to time markets, pick good strategies etc. were a mixture of disaster and/or poor returns, thankfully I realised my own lack of abilities.I realised I was getting older & could not afford to take on much risk, I needed consistency & way less risk in my approach.
    Luckily for me a link on another site brought me here 4 or 5 years ago & I haven't looked back, lots of people who really new their stuff, you have mentioned 3 of them in your post.My portfolio has steadily grown (even allowing for 2020) as has income through consistently taking less risk, living within my means & re-investing also. Absolutely no need to take on potentially disastrous risk at this stage of life!
    The site I was on was a sister site to this where a lot of, shall I say, adventurous strategies were being promoted, when I fortunately clicked a link to this site. This site no longer exists, enough said.
     
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  2. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    i crunched the numbers on 'the tried and tested' strategies , and i couldn't see how i could hit my goals in ten years ( fate gave me 7 years , but there were always going to be twists and turns ) so i had to try different , which i can be quite comfortable for me

    yes my portfolio is up this year ( since the start ) but that is mostly DRPs and minimal effort for me apart from a little selling

    personally i would like to see how the market is going after July this year , to see if a clear strategy is visible , the powers that be might resort to sticky-tape and kicking the can a little further .. say, selling 100 year Treasuries , perhaps

    i suspected the GFC wasn't fixed properly so half expected a bumpy road , so am probably not as surprised as many

    BTW i would love to add , but at the right price ( and in sensible places ) , if i have to wait .. i have to wait it is not as though i am sitting on a huge pile of cash ( even if the CCL take-over completes )

    which trends will last and which will pass ??
     
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  3. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Well, you did ask.

    Tolerance can be a good thing and a gentle correction, if necessary, may also be in order.

    Alternatively:
     

    Attached Files:

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  4. Big A

    Big A Well-Known Member

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    Well done. You don't need to be a big earner to get yourself in a great financial position if you follow such a simple and tried strategy.

    I personally wouldn't recommend anyone to take on more risk or attempt more adventurous strategies regardless of what financial position they start in. But I can see why the temptation might be there for some one who is not as far ahead as they feel they should be.
     
  5. monk

    monk Well-Known Member

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    Yep I was such a one but then I didn't know any different at the time. Now with hindsight, had I been aware of the simple approach earlier I would be way more in front than I am now, but it's all good.
     
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  6. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    It's ingrained I'm afraid. Risk taking is part of us. Some learn and survive. Some don't survive.

    Way back when shortly after the 2000 tech wreck, there were a number of 20 yo's, 40 yo's various age groups, on margin who got creamed. $250k, $500k down the tubes and bankrupt.

    Fast forward to 2008 and the infamous Storm Financial. Margin and blown up. Some even able to achieve it without debt which is quite an astounding effort if you think about it but they were dabbling in the really small end of the market.

    And you can go back further to previous events.

    You would think with that history readily available similar mistakes wouldn't occur. But you'd be wrong. It's different this time as it is every other time plus I'm pretty good and way above average so it won't happen to me. A 20 to 1 punt is exciting and a 100 to 1 even more so.

    Government issues warnings to little effect. Apart from being a boring, age discriminatory old phart and continually going "Well, listen here young fella/lass...." I don't believe there is one darn thing you or I or others can do to prevent it.
     
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  7. Aston Marersa

    Aston Marersa Active Member

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    I worry this is true and am generationally affronted actually.

    Beyond pushing one further up the risk curve it does encourage you to stray away for the PT approach or market return in search of active alpha.
     
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  8. Big A

    Big A Well-Known Member

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    I see how lower future returns could lead to such temptations. But if such strategy did not generally lead to a better result in a higher return world, will it lead to better results in a lower return world. One would think not. But anything is possible.
     
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  9. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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  10. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Like many things, the answer is likely to be "It depends." I have accepted lower returns from an income perspective by investing via VGS rather than having purely a home country focus yet I'm OK with it. Yet, I wouldn't be comfortable chasing a higher income because of that. What I hold would not be viewed as a perfect portfolio by others as exposure to emerging markets is relatively low and it's mainly income focused rather than growth.

    However, if it wasn't that way, I'd worry more than I do and I think that is what individuals need to give some thought to it and access what fits them.
     
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  11. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    maybe i look in different places , but i already see signs , of folks ( managers ) succumbing to the risk-curve temptation

    APRA intentions of publicly publishing returns might accelerate that trend
     
  12. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    as one who admits they test out unpopular corners of the risk curve the key word is DABBLE ( not wade neck deep ) , sure i might risk $1000 here and $1000 there ( NOT millions ) but i resist leverage and am very prone to taking profit before 'nose-bleed highs' ( but maybe not exiting completely )

    now i have to read ( or watch videos ) about those major events , and keep telling myself history rhymes ( so far )

    as a former ( long odds ) race-track gambler ( investing means buying a horse or racing complex ) exciting YES , but very exhausting ( you shouldn't do it ,say , 5 times a day ) walking off course with POCKETS of money gets you robbed ( either at home or on the way there )

    will i make more mistakes ABSOLUTELY , i just hope i have avoided the financially crippling ones


    You must learn from the mistakes of others. You can't possibly live long enough to make them all yourself.

    Samuel Levenson
     
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  13. TickerHound

    TickerHound Well-Known Member

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    Buying-and-holding good LICs or ETFs are easiest from a skills perspective. Takes 5 mins to learn and implement. But sticking with them can be hard for some.

    Once you find strategy that works (not always easy) and you are happy with, then investing becomes a psychological issue.

    Boggleheads are cult-like in their beliefs for a reason - it avoids the temptation of being lured away, and drifting into other approaches, and thus not realizing the long-term benefits of buy-and-hold.

    BTW, despite the indexes being at all time highs, many really good active traders are being chopped around currently.
     
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  14. APINDEX

    APINDEX Well-Known Member

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  15. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Has his own dedicated thread so no surprises there I feel.

    Oh, in the article! Cool (haven't read it. Sorry.)
     
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  16. APINDEX

    APINDEX Well-Known Member

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  17. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    New My Say out by Peter, as always an interesting read

    My Say - No. 67
    18th July 2021

    Is it good or bad news

    With lockdowns dancing around the country it is hard to focus and with time on one’s hands scanning trivia becomes a bit of a trap. However, a piece in the Sydney Morning Herald, Monday 28th June, that resonated with me I considered as worthy of further attention.
    The headline was, “Mining, energy exports hit a record $310 billion”, but my heart sank as I read it; reminding me of an ongoing problem. The question is why?
    This triggered my ‘digging up’, pardon the pun, an article below which was written in 2003.
    ...
     
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  18. APINDEX

    APINDEX Well-Known Member

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    Interesting as always...However I like (Many?) was expecting some commentary on the biggest story in LIC land? MLT?

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th Jul, 2021
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  19. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Missed the publication deadline by a smidgeon. :)
     
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  20. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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