Peter Thornhill 2020

Certainly has been an interesting few weeks!!

 

We've still a ways to go, so if anyones going you can ask him at this fall if he bought more WES, CBA etc or the Grandfather LIC's

 

Yes it will be interesting to find out in details what his thoughts are regarding recent developments.
The seminar next week is still going ahead as planned.

 

I reckon he'll have something old that will be copied and pasted, fitting the bill for current situation, like his latest 'my say'
When I attended his seminar, I really got a lot out of him talking about his personal experiences during every major correction right back to the 70s

 

Link to a chat the Aussie FireBug had with Peter Thornhill that was released this morning.

Podcast - Coronavirus market crash with Peter Thornhill - Aussie Firebug

 

Reading the transcript now, will listen later

It's all relative to the size of your portfolio, but just up to this portion where Peter discusses the CV-19 impact to date

 

Still not a fan of etfs, and the ol discount/premium to nta of lics doesnt bother him as he believes it will balance out over time. Hats off to him tho! Stays the course!

 

Is this still going ahead with the new Covid-19 congregating rules?

 

Although I don't know if the presentation is going ahead probably will need a 400sqm room for the max of 100 able to attend a non-essential gathering.

Hope arrangements are being considered for those who wear hearing-aides on that basis or are visually impaired.

 

Always repost

 

Yes seems still not a fan, of all the reasons he puts forward only one potentially bothers me that of the unwanted CGT consequences from the trust structure although I am not sure how relevant that is with AMIT or even if its still an issue either way I'm happy investing in both ETF's and LICS

 

Yes, it is. I asked Peter this morning and his plan is to go ahead as normal. It's gonna be a small group he says.

Hopefully there will be a precautionary measure put in place tomorrow. I will be attending so if you got questions for PT, I'd be happy to ask him for ya.

 

I have a ticket for Thornhill event tomorrow - I won't be going with the corona situation and what not.
DM me if you want it (free), I only ask that you post a summary of Pete's thoughts on this forum.

 

Still has CSL and Cochlear by the looks, may also still have CBA and WES

Yep, no real change or insights, like pippen said staying the course

 

PT should deffo get a full biohazard suit on if he’s doing this!

 

Main takeaways from today's seminar:

1. We know PT is not a fan of trust structure (ETFs, LPTs, etc) and his position has not changed. He doesn’t like it ('despise' was the word he used actually) and I don’t think he is likely to ever change his mind. HOWEVER, Oliver Thornhill has a different view to his dad's. ETFs have a place in a growing number of his clients’ portfolios and from time to time Fortitude Wealth is not shy of investing in ETFs when LICs are trading at a premium to make sure their clients will always get a fair return on their investment - as the very nature of ETF itself is tracking the share market indices. Good ETFs such as Vanguard’s are an acceptable form of investment as they are highly liquid, have low fees and good performance.

2. In regards to COVID19: PT believes that in the long term market is always self-correcting in nature and therefore this pandemic is just another self-cleansing event/adjustment to bring the market back to the level of where they need to be; i.e. fair vs overpriced/inflated value. How low can we go? How long will this last? No one knows. But if you focus on long term growth and not easily swayed by the constant fear/greed/volatility/ /negativity/uncertainty, plus you keep investing regularly and stick to your plan, you can expect the share market to keep doing what it’s always been doing: delivering wonderfully compounding income streams from growing capital and dividends.

3. We had Brendan O’Dea, Managing Director of Milton Corporation, joining us in the seminar today. That was a nice surprise I must say.

Share market has lost 30-35% so far. Brendan thinks they might shed a further 10%. How low, how long, he can’t say.

Late last year MLT sold their regional banks position to generate some cash and as a result they’re in a very good position to buy shares at a very good price during this downturn. MLT is always selling and buying throughout the year to achieve their objectives and set target; e.g. they sold Flight Centre recently, but also bought small investment companies at a discount from time to time.

MTL investment committee meets more than 20 times a year to make sure they’re actively engaged with the market and to align w/ objectives.

MLT pays around 95% of their earnings to share holders and as much as 110% during downturns (dividend smoothing). Brendan can’t say if the next dividend payments WON’T be affected by the market situation but it is too early to say how much.

4. PT’s trivia & fun facts:

in 1988 PT received $1,000 in dividend payments
in 2019 it was $440,000

His holdings are down by $4M so far

What to do when dividends are reduced during downturn? Buy more shares!

Simplification is key. PT holds ARG BKI MLT and WHF. He leaves the tinkering and management to his FA.

SORR = have at least 2 year buffer to protect your capital.

“Teach your kids not just how to earn money, but also teach them how to invest it, because other people will sure as hell teach them how to spend it.”

“If you’re trying to pick the bottom, then expect to get a smelly figure.”

“Volatility is a function of liquidity and not a measure of stability."

5. Whether you like or dislike his approach, you gotta give it to Peter. He’s very passionate about what he does. He argues convincingly that shares (LICs) can be a simple, set and forget, investment instrument that can deliver excellent long term income streams for those who are looking for good performance and stable returns. This fits the risk profile of lots of property investors in this forum judging by how many of you are really interested (or are already invested) in share holding.

P.S. No, Peter wasn’t wearing a hazmat suit. Yes, we have abundant of space between participants. It was a small group of 30.

 

Interesting in the podcast transcript PT says he expects to end up with 6 - 7 LICs overtime. Unless he’s including SOL also mentioned? It wasn’t clear to me.

 

Ollie is a lot smarter than Dad. But sometimes you need a fanatic without a single doubt to get people to follow them...confidence has its own currency! Keen to know if anyone asked why MLT no longer compares their performance against XJOAI after 15 years of humbling underperformance but I think I know! When they quietly swept that under the carpet in monthly NTA reporting all respect went straight out the window Might need to meet 50 times a year. Thanks for the report.

 

Listened to this today.
Sometimes AFB really ***** me, in that he tends to wing his podcasts, even when it's his solo Ask Firebug Fridays. He'll read a question, and start answering, and say something like "Oh I'm not sure, best to not trust me on this". Instead of pausing his recording and do some research he dumps some ill-informed figures out there. Another one is when he says "Computershares dot com dot au" Wrong. Wrong. Dude, fact check.

Same again with this Thornhill interview, he was pushing the limits when they started talking about wash sales, or "Bed and Breakfast" as Peter called it. Should've cut that from the interview. AFB suggested it was probably illegal, but then let Peter continue talking about the benefits, and how it all just makes sense to do it that way.

But hey, at least AFB is doing a semi-regular podcast, and is dedicated to the FIRE movement. It's still my go-to podcast when I need to reset my brain and align my strategy to where I want to go.

 

I think he does a good job overall.

Always gonna be a certain amount of winging it. Part of the deal I think unless scripted word for word but that’s terribly boring. To make it spot on would require too much time and editing.

Im actually starting a podcast at the moment with another Aussie blogger in the FI space which will be us having convos since AFB has the interview space covered.

No doubt it will be far from perfect so hopefully you’ll go easy on us