Perth's housing market is still lagging behind — and it will take more than a rate cut to fix things

Is it.. Supply and Demand?..

 

Nup , and a guy's gotta have some secrets ...

Cliff

 

Boring.. Just for that I won't share use of my crystal ball with you!

 

Damn it !!!!

Cliff

 

Hi See Change,
I am genuinely curious, did outer ring Brisbane suburbs exhibit similar indicators of Hobart's when you were looking there a few years ago ?

 

One was , I've added the second indicator recently while I've been going through a review process , though it's still a work in progress ., but Perth isn't close to ticking that box ... At this stage it's a filter , rather than a buy signal so keeping me out of a market unless it's fulfilled.

Back then It was more about taking to people about what was happening on the ground . Personally I think Brisbane would have boomed back then if the changes to serviceability hadn't occurred , but they did .

When we were were buying in Goodna / Ipswich I was hoping for a boom in the medium term but always had in the back of my mind the time frame between peaks in sydney ( 2003 - 2017 ) and the last peak in Brisbane being 2009 ( ? Peak 2023 ).


Cliff

 

People the game has changed....quality will grow...but waiting for things like Goodna/Logan to grow...is like waiting for paint to dry.

Good....nah....!!!

I am not prepared to share as I am still buying there..but some quality areas in Brissie well away from Brissie where you can manufacture growth...an easy 150-200k if done right on a 550-650k investment.

 

A few important indicators I have been looking at is pointing to Perth property bottomed out and starting a turn around.

1. Vacancy rate is now 2.7 % which indicates a balanced demand and supply but will likely to move to under supply very quickly in the months ahead.

2. Sale supply has trending gradually trending downward for a few months now
SQM Research - Property - Total Property Listings - Perth

3. Rent is trending up as a byproduct of vacancy rate trending downwards, this would put pressure on renters to think about buying. Investors would also be more entice to get back to the market with yields going up and vacancy time going down. Lots of renters were not buying not because they can't afford, but renting is much cheaper with plenty of stocks to choose from, rent increase and vacancy tightening will certainly make them think twice.


My take is that you will start to see gradual growth within the next 6 months if this trend continues.

 

Interesting Article, would be great to implement even just a few of their suggestions especially stamp duty for first home buyers purchasing established homes.

WA property industry stands together seeking government support

WA Property Industry Stands Together Seeking Government Support|REIWA

 

Personally i think stamp duty should be wiped completely for all first home buyers. Ours came to $30k.
We would have made a start on our front landscaping and completed our en-suite bathroom for that, injecting cash directly into the economy. Instead, it went straight into Govt coffers.

 

"Introduce a stamp duty exemption for multi-unit dwellings."

Yes yes! help developers off load poor business choices

 

I never knew how genuine these queries were until literally taking a call today from an agent who has clients looking for apartments/houses in a particular area of Coolbinia where I own my unit. There is nothing on the market, and I checked on real estate and he's right. I hadn't really been keeping on top of this particular market either as it's just being rented with no issues at the moment. Probably also time to review the rent for an increase when the lease ends in February!

 

Good to know observation on the ground is feeling it too. All I could do is looking at stats from 4000km away, or maybe call my Perth PM to have a quick chat...

 

I actually agree with this, you can buy a house and land package in the middle of nowhere and only pay stamp duty on the land component, why not encourage the same with apartments in suitable locations with existing infrastructure. Not always about an investment, more to help people live where they want to.

 

Perth market snapshot for the week ending 10 November 2019
NEW
11 November 2019


Sales activity increased five per cent in Perth this week, with REIWA members reporting 664 transactions.

This increase can be attributed to a three per cent rise in house sales, a 10 per cent rise in unit sales and a 10 per cent rise in vacant land sales over the week.

Properties for sale
There were 14,246 properties for sale in Perth at the end of this week, which is one per cent more than last week.

A closer look at listing stock levels shows house listings increased by one per cent, listings for units increased by one per cent and listings for vacant land decreased by one per cent.

This week's total figure is three per cent higher than levels seen four weeks ago and are 17 per cent lower than the same time last year.

Perth rental market
REIWA members reported there were 6,131 properties for rent in Perth at the end of this week, which is four per cent more than last week.

This week's rental listings figure is one per cent lower than levels seen four weeks ago, and are 17 per cent lower than levels seen a year ago.

Leasing activity decreased eight per cent in Perth this week, with REIWA members reporting 944 properties leased.

 

It will be below 2% before mid next year.. Severe undersupply soon afterwards... Looking forward to the good times...

 

Yep.....I have just started putting up rents...early days...