WA Perth market 2019

We're back, baby!
*crosses all fingers and toes in hope that it's not another dead cat bounce*

 

also

Perth is showing strong potential as sentiment rapidly changes. A rise in search is unlikely to meet demand as the number of homes available falls.

“After NSW, Perth is seeing the biggest imbalance between people looking to buy and the amount of property currently available,” Ms Conisbee said.

“Not surprisingly, it is Perth inner that is seeing the highest views per listing at a small area level.

“The difference between this part of Perth and the remainder of the city is stark. Views per listing are more than triple in Perth inner compared to most middle and outer suburban areas.”

 

0.4% increase on a month on month stat? Seriously? Pretty much means nothing imo.

I'm still waiting for a stronger recovery on rents before I expect any real price increases.

 

No ones opening the champagne but it’s not a negative stat, it’s some positive data that we haven’t seen in a long long time (albeit minuscule).

 

I just have no regard for median house price stats at all. They're a stupid metric imo when trying to use them to measure broad price movements. It wouldn't make any difference to me if it was +2% or -2% for the last month - I wouldn't change a single thing about my investing.

 

Hey mate ....may I get the site location and address too ?

 

Perth market snapshot for the week ending 8 December 2019

Perth Market Snapshot For The Week Ending | 8 December 2019 | REIWA

Sales activity decreased two per cent in Perth this week, with REIWA members reporting 662 transactions compared to 683 the previous week.

This decrease can be attributed to a five per cent fall in house sales, a nine per cent rise in unit sales and a three per cent rise in vacant land sales over the week.

Properties for sale
There were 13,931 properties for sale in Perth at the end of this week, which is two per cent less than last week.

A closer look at listing stock levels shows house listings decreased by one per cent, listings for units decreased by one per cent and listings for vacant land remained stable.

This week's total figure is two per cent lower than levels seen four weeks ago and are 21 per cent lower than levels seen a year ago.

Perth rental market
REIWA members reported there were 6,018 properties for rent in Perth at the end of this week, which is in line with last week.

This week's rental listings figure is two per cent lower than levels seen four weeks ago and are 17 per cent lower than levels seen a year ago

Leasing activity increased two per cent in Perth this week, with REIWA members reporting 997 properties leased.

View our Perth Market Snapshot graph for a detailed breakdown of the past week.

 

I'm calling bottom as Q1 2020. Upward from there.

 

Domain Rental Vacancy Rate November 2019: Perth vacancy rate continues to decline, Sydney and Melbourne steady
TRENT WILTSHIRE DEC 9, 2019
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Capital city rental vacancy rates – November 2019
Nov 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2018 MoM ∆ YoY ∆
National 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% – –
Sydney 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% – ↑
Melbourne 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% – ↑
Brisbane 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% – ↓
Perth 2.2% 2.4% 3.2% ↓ ↓
Adelaide 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% – ↓
Hobart 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% ↓ –
ACT 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% – ↑
Darwin 3.6% 3.6% 4.8% – ↓
Source: Domain
Note: The vacancy rate represents the portion of available, empty rental properties relative to the total stock of rental property. The rental vacancy rate is based on adjusted Domain rental listings and will be subject to slight revisions over time.
Rental vacancy rates were unchanged in Australia-wide and in most capital cities in November, but there have been some big movements over the past year.

Perth’s rental market continues to tighten, with the vacancy rate falling to 2.2 per cent from 2.4 per cent in October. The tighter rental market will likely translate into rising rents, and is a sign that the Perth property market could be at a turning point. But Perth is still a renters’ market. Perth has the fourth-highest vacancy rate of the capital city markets, and the lowest asking rents.

Sydney’s rental vacancy rate remains the second-highest of the capital cities, behind Darwin. Sydney’s vacancy rate has been steady since September, but is below the peak of 3.3 per cent reached in July 2019. The elevated vacancy rate across Sydney continues to put downward pressure on rents. There were approximately 18,000 vacant rentals across Sydney at the end of November.

The vacancy rate was also steady in Melbourne, at 1.8 per cent. Despite a construction boom, Melbourne’s rental market has remained tight due to ongoing strong population growth.

Hobart continues to experience a rental affordability crisis, with the vacancy rate falling another 10 basis points in November to an incredibly low 0.3 per cent. At the end of the month there were only an estimated 90 rental properties available across Hobart. The tight rental market is feeding into extraordinary rent rises. Median asking rents for houses increased 10 per cent in the year to September, while the median unit rent increased 13 per cent.

The vacancy rate was steady in Brisbane over the past month but has declined 40 basis points over the past year.

 

New year, new market: positive signs expected for WA

New Year, New Market: Positive Signs Expected For WA | REIWA

REIWA’s 2020 outlook indicates the Western Australian property market should experience better conditions in the New Year, with some positivity expected in both the sales and rental market.

Perth sales market
REIWA President Damian Collins said market conditions throughout 2019 had been fairly mixed with sales activity fluctuating and rental activity improving incrementally throughout the year.

“We saw lower sales activity at the start of the year, followed by an uptick in the second half of 2019, while listings for sale in Perth decreased from 17,000 to 14,000 – stock levels this low were last seen in 2014,” Mr Collins said.

“We expect sales activity in 2020 will continue to gain momentum, however there is a possibility that rising consumer confidence levels, coupled with improved housing affordability, could translate into higher sales volumes than we have seen in the last few years.

The full impact of the rate cuts and tax reforms put in place during 2019 have not yet made its way to WA, however it is expected that the onset of these initiatives will be seen later in 2020.

“With the current low interest rates and Perth’s population growth slowly but steadily improving, Perth’s median house price could improve over the next 12 months. However, we do not expect this rise to be consistent across all sectors of the market,” Mr Collins said.

Perth rental market
REIWA analysis shows the upward trajectory of the Perth rental market should continue through 2020 with consistent demand in line with improving population growth and reduced supply the key drivers for this improvement.

Mr Collins said the Perth rental market led the way in 2019,with stable median rents, reasonable leasing activity levels, declining listings and a plummeting vacancy rate to currently sit at 2.3 per cent.

“We are already seeing competition for good, quality stock which means we can expect this to pick up at the start of next year, and continue to gain momentum later in 2020,” Mr Collins said.

Perth’s overall median rent price has held at $350 per week since April 2017 – the longest period of stable rents Perth has experienced since REIWA first started recording rental data in 2001.

“We’re at 32 months and counting of stable median rent prices in Perth. If listings continue to decrease, new build stock continues to decline and leasing volumes remain healthy, we should see the overall median rent price gradually increase,” Mr Collins said.

“Perth currently has the lowest median house value of any major capital city. This combined with strengthening rental conditions and the opportunity to get into good suburbs at an affordable price point, means investors are likely to re-enter the market.”

With REIWA’s 2020 outlook for the Perth rental market positive, an increase in investors looking to take advantage of the favourable market conditions will help boost the available supply of rental property, keeping rent increases to moderate levels.

Regional WA
REIWA expects overall market conditions to improve in regional WA during 2020 as a direct result of investment in the mining sector.

Mr Collins said we have already seen improvements in Karratha during the latter half of 2019 with increased rental demand and sales activity.

“In addition to Karratha, Port Hedland and Kalgoorlie are areas to watch in 2020, with the new mining projects going a long way to restoring confidence in these regions. These projects are expected to create thousands of new local jobs, which should continue to support population growth, improve demand for housing and aid recovery,” Mr Collins said.

“The WA Government’s push for tourism looms as another positive for regional WA, as it could provide some much-needed support to WA’s tourist focused regions.

“After a prolonged period of turbulent conditions following the slowdown in the mining sector, the WA market appears to be stabilising. While the worst appears over, REIWA cautions against expectations of a rapid recovery during the next 12 months.”

 

Perth market snapshot for the week ending 15 December 2019
NEW
16 December 2019


Sales activity decreased 14 per cent in Perth this week, with REIWA members reporting 568 transactions compared to 662 the previous week.

This decrease can be attributed to a 10 per cent fall in house sales, eight per cent fall in unit sales and 51 per cent fall in vacant land sales over the week.



Properties for sale
There were 13,709 properties for sale in Perth at the end of this week, which is two per cent less than last week.

A closer look at listing stock levels shows house listings decreased by two per cent, listings for units decreased by two per cent and listings for vacant land increased by one per cent.

This week's total figure is four per cent lower than levels seen four weeks ago and 22 per cent lower than levels seen a year ago.

Perth rental market
REIWA members reported there were 5,998 properties for rent in Perth at the end of this week, which is in line with last week.

This week's rental listings figure is three per cent lower than levels seen four weeks ago and are 16 per cent lower than levels seen a year ago.

Leasing activity remained stable in Perth this week, with REIWA members reporting 978 properties leased.

View our Perth Market Snapshot graph for a detailed breakdown of the past week.

 

Just rented a appartment in CBD.Huge competition.The one which we got had 22 application and the one which we liked was advertised for 400 and rented for 430.

 

Some thoughts from Jarrad Mcmahon (Investors Edge) on the Perth Market Perth Property Market Update for December 2019 - The Recovery Year That Wasn’t - Investors Edge Real Estate

I agree with a lot of his general comments but I was underwhelmed by his thoughts on new construction numbers. He was looking at it from a recovery marker saying that the number of newstarts increasing would indicate recovery but really didn't talk about how much populaton x lack of new supply would impact the market

I'm not pro or against the suburbs he's picked for growth - Heathridge, Padbury, Harmersley and Craigie. It all depends on what you are looking for and what your strategy is. I wouldn't be rushing into them without a lot of due diligence and the ability to hold long term and deal with some socio-economic issues.

 

Agree with you on the impact of the population and supply mix. I'm also not a fan of using dwellings under construction as a gauge of new supply as you can't annualise it and compare to demand-side stats (i.e. a house can be under construction and built in less than a year, and a unit may take 3 years so how ever many are under construction now will not be an accurate gauge of total annual supply). I prefer dwelling approvals/completions for this reason, and approvals also have the added benefit of forecasting supply 1 year into the future.

This also leads to my favourite metric, new people per new dwelling. Generally as soon as there has been more than 2 people per new dwelling in any state (except Adelaide for some reason), a growth cycle kicks off. The next step for Jarrad will be to pull his data together and make correlations to quantify his predictions. Looking forward to his findings if he does that.

 

Where do you find this info? Can't find this on census

 

So #Perth20/25km ? Interesting

 

In Perth (and presumably other states) a lot of people get development approvals (which last 2 years) and then extend or never actually build so they are a tricky stat too - unless it's building permit approvals which would assume it's actually going to happen. I would like to see more data on completions - as you say - as this would be more accurate.

 

Australian bureau of statistics:

8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Oct 2019 building approvals (i use tables 22-29)

8752.0 - Building Activity, Australia, Jun 2019 under construciton and completions

3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Mar 2019 population change