WA Perth market 2019

Perth Market Snapshot For The Week Ending | 29 September 2019 | REIWA
Certainly stock levels are nearly at balanced market level, but low demand is delaying the recovery

 

Wandi may be city of Kwinana but not Kwinana the suburb. Wandi is mostly new housing stock.

 

So few new listings coming to market in the 7 or suburbs I am watching ( both NOR and SOR )
Friend that is searching completely diff areas to me also saying very few new listings...
We were both thinking Spring would've have brought a lot more..

 

Likewise - good new listings have really dried up in the areas I watch, no spring surge so far like has occurred in previous years. Let's see how we go over the next two months..

 

I wonder does it indicate that all the investors that were going to cut and run have done so?

 

Probably, I think most of them are holding at the moment as Rental market has improved by leaps and bounds as compared to couple of years ago. Rents are rising and properties are being leased out quite quickly. It is not hard to hold an investment property unless someone has to really sell due to personal circumstances. Rental listings are dropping quite sharply and worst for rental market is behind us IMHO.

 

If you have the property rented and interest rates are dropping you would just hold on. The only issues I've seen is when banks change payments from interest-only to principal and interest this can cause financial hardship and force a sale especially if you have multiples properties converting from IO to P&I at the same it can be a significant difference monthly payments. Hopefully, with APRA removing the restrictions on IO loans it will hopefully reduce the number of forced sales.

 

First sod turns on $2.32 billion METRONET-linked project in Brabham

The State Government started out with dreams of apartment blocks surrounding new Metronet stations. Not viable. My bet is that the 3,000 homes will be another Ellenbrook: identikit, soulless, boring, bland. An ocean of 4x2s.

At least there will be a few jobs created.

 

Perth market snapshot for the week ending 6 October 2019

07 October 2019

Sales activity decreased in Perth this week, with REIWA members reporting 502 transactions compared to 675 last week.

This increase can be attributed to a 25 per cent decline in house sales, 6.3 per cent decline in unit sales and 42 per cent fall in vacant land sales over the week.

Listings for sale
There were 13,640 properties for sale in Perth at the end of this week, which is 109 properties less than last week.

This week's total figure is 14 per cent lower than levels seen a year ago and the lowest since October 2014.

Perth rental market
REIWA members reported there were 6,200 properties for rent in Perth at the end of this week, which is 13 more properties than last week.

This week's rental listings figure is six per cent lower than levels seen four weeks ago and are 18 per cent lower than levels seen a year ago.

Leasing activity decreased 16 per cent in Perth this week, with REIWA members reporting 852 properties leased.

View our Perth Market Snapshot graph for a detailed breakdown of the past week.

 

Just a thought,

I see everyone (Media, REA, gov) trying to pass the image that Perth bottom is gone and it’s now the flat period of the market with the upward trend just around the corner.
I can see that they are using the decrease of listings for sale and rentals. It’s my opinion that this is a result of hard times do make a sell and there is a crazy amount of owners awaiting for better times to list their properties. A minor quantity of people selling to make a profit at the moment.
I am more into comercial property and the incredible increase of commercial properties for lease or sale are scary. Pick any street of Perth and you can see this. And if you want to be amazed go to any industrial area.
It’s my opinion, that this amount of commercial properties for lease and sale hits one of the main fundamentals - Jobs. They are scarce and rare. If you don’t have a secure job you are not running into a bank to borrow money to buy your Ppor or Ip doesn’t matter how low prices go - simples as that.
We are all worried about residential properties figures when businesses of all kinds are still closing every single day.
Maybe it will be too late, I don’t know, but when I see a decrease of commercial properties for lease I believe that we then have hit the bottom and ready for a flat period.
Feel free to tell me that I am wrong - I would actually be happy about it.

Cheers,
Eduardo

 

Makes sense and I agree completely.
Vacant commercial properties can be realistic indicator of residential properties.
Listings and stuff can be fudged to create false impression of market movement.

 

Just an example, I recently advertised a job in the main seeking websites. I got 40 applicants in one day but the most interesting (sad) fact was that around 30 of the applicants had a different trade! They were just applying for a job that could pay their bills/mortgage etc.
This makes me scared and concerned.

 

I am a Mechanical Engineer by profession.
When I was looking for job 2 years ago, 500 applications for a job was a common thing.

 

Have you been to many home opens recently?

Its been pretty busy in a lot of places I've been to. Worlds apart from a year or two ago.

 

I have being following closely 3 properties with some considerable action at opens but with no real offers...I am betting that 2 of them are going off market because they are not willing to take such a loss or a small profit.
The busyness that you report I think reflects the lack of good properties for sale, but not because they don’t exist, just because they are been waiting for the right moment to go into the market. It greats a real buzz, and I can understand what you mean/see but there’s still some serious problems ahead.

 

I agree that this will be one of the indicators. Other indicator will be the population growth, people moving in to Perth from other states. Right now it is opposite with lot of people I know are moving to Eastern States for better prospects.

 

Now you get 300 applying because 200 have left the state.

 

The golden rule is to look at the data and make your mind up.
Any other medium passes through the filter of vested interest
Government: the need to keep confidence up by talking up the economy
Commercial media: Rely on advertising revenue from the housing industry and therefore talk the market up
ABC: Owned by the government who would be none too pleased if they talked down the economy.
The industry bodies: Talking the book of their members.

The truth is that we are, at best, grinding our way towards a recovery. In the housing market, purely due to the fall off in new supply. **** all from the demand side.

For all the talk of busy home opens and stock moving in the ‘inner circle’ competition, the basic condition for price inflation, is not present.

And that’s with money as cheap as it has been in…forever.

Price are still falling: SQM Research - Property - Weekly Asking Property Prices - Perth

 

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the demand side in WA according to data released today by the ABS. The red line is the 17 year average; data goes back to 02.

Recovery or new depths of hell? You decide.

 

Agree. I would just add that both indicators are linked and work as one. There is various reasons to move to Perth but there is only one that would make you stay long term: Jobs.
Business need to grow at a faster pace to create jobs. Until then nothing substantial will happen to the residential market.
Business growth > jobs creation > business+jobs stability > then buy a property.
We will get there...