WA Perth market 2019

Data suggests that Perth is rallying. If Perth continues in its current trajectory it'll be 3 - 9 months until it reaches a stable base.

 

Louis Christopher, head of SQM, was recently interviewed where he spoke of personal confidence in the Perth market based on the upward trend of rental prices.

 

Ease up folks - there's still not much here except local demand.

 

3 / 14 Byland Street Doubleview WA 6018 3 / 14 Byland Street, Doubleview, WA 6018 thoughts on this one as a set and forget?

 

Speaking of SQM, their listings numbers for Perth remain eye watering. 27,000 total listings vs 35,000 for Sydney, despite the fact that Sydney's market is more than double the size of ours. And Perth listings are still rising, albeit more slowly than the other capitals. Until this number starts falling convincingly, the Perth downturn is not over.

 

Just back from a month in Europe and have started browsing again.
I've noticed VERY little new listings and some properties selling within 1-2 weeks.....
Is the reduced number of new listings just a seasonal thing do you all think? Im getting itchy fingers thinking I really need to get something this year....dont worry I wont panic buy

 

Right now different sub-markets are doing very different things. Have a look at Mt Hawthorn for example, huge amounts of listings under offer and not many available "good buys" around. This market (inner suburban, $800k+ detached housing) has already been flagged as the epicentre of the next growth phase.

If you're looking at lower value and second tier markets its a very different story. Just across the road from Mt Hawthorn in Osborne Park / Tuart Hill there is still a flood of historically cheap townhouses. Have seen a few 2 bed villas with decent outdoor areas going for $200k and under. they were going for 50% more than that 4 years ago, and there's so many available now. No doubt they'll catch on eventually, but its a while off yet.

 

I've been tracking listings religiously since Jan 2017. This is from realestate.com.au, excluding properties under offer:
June: 2017 | 2018 | 2019
WA 39,501 | 39,698 | 38,747
NSW 49,187 | 54,975 | 58,927
VIC 50,119 | 45,684 | 53,566

Where it is most interesting however is rental listings, which are typically the leading indicator of what the market is going to do:

June: 2017 2018 2019
WA 15,993 13,243 10,749
NSW 24,824 29,852 36,831
VIC 18,264 17,190 20,130

So looking not at where we are, but where we are heading.. from my directly sourced data, WA sales listings are tracking steady while rental listings plummet. NSW is up 20% and supply is coming thick and fast. Rental listings there are up 50% in only 2 years. They may still be rough, but they're heading the right way.

 

Agreed.
THe $700-900k inner suburban has been moving well now for awhile.
The cheapness of villa/townhouse stock in Yokine/Tuart Hill/Osb Park is kind of scary. Older 70s/80s stock going for very low prices that might end up being some nice cash cows

 

What 50% drop, can you provide some links on those $200k units, I really find that hard to believe

 

My market is detached 3X1 upwards, <550k, west of the freeways and <17km from CBD. So dview/innaloo/cooby/hilton and surrounds

 

27000 is deffo on the high side but what do those include though? Does Perth include Peel region? Do they count the many listings by builders that are just advertisements? Do they include umpteen blocks of land in middle of nowhere estates?

Realestate.com.au says Perth-region has 26k listings - I know this site has a lot more phantom listings.
REIWA says otherwise: 16k listings in Perth region.

 

Tbh not seeing the love at all

Infact anyone paying attention to business activity?? Lots of resturants in inner city shutting doors. Its practically a ghost town, no resemblance of the boom days sadly

 

Markets within markets and type of stock you are targeting as well.

 

50% more isn't a 50% drop. A $200k villa with 50% more is $300k which is the equivalent of a 30% drop to get down to $200k

$201k 5/85 Shakespeare Avenue, Yokine, WA 6060

Villas in that complex have sold as high as high 300s

 

Have you got a parameter for land size also?

 

Id like more than a courtyard......for Cooby it would have to be at least 600sqm with retain subdivide potential, for the other suburbs my budget would only get me 300-400sqm

 

Sold 2014 $360k, 2018 $300k https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-5-158-hector-st-osborne-park-wa-6017

Decent condition same block listed $239k 12/158 Hector Street, Osborne Park, WA 6017

$239k *150% = $359.5k

The block at 15 Hamilton Street: Building profile - 15 Hamilton St, Osborne Park WA 6017

Sales in 2014 peaked at $395k. one listed now for $249k 13/15 Hamilton Street, Osborne Park, WA 6017

These are just two examples i came across in a 2min search of current listings. I have seen Villas going for under $200k in the area.

 

I think this is a pretty good market to be getting in to around now. Rental yields in that area are heading north, but importantly the area is undergoing a shift from townhouse development to unit development. There is lots of units being developed now and asking the same prices as the older 3 bed townhouses and only really getting this because of their new-ness. Fast-forward 5-10 years and people will pay more for a townhouse than a 10 year old unit, so if units don't move then townhouses have to go up...

Its a simplistic model, but hasn't ever let me down

 

Did you mean to reply to my post @JL1 as you are talking about townhouses but I am talking about freestanding