WA Perth market 2019

Balanced market used to be 12,000. Our population has added a bit since then, balanced market is more like 13,500 now.

I don;t know how anyone can only look at a quarter of the story and call a "cycle" here.

There's nothing but broken fundamentals and shattered dreams currently.

 

.....and now we have interest only loans reverting to interest and principal, this may be the nail in the coffin for many investors

 

It doesnt matter who gets in and what they propose, they still have to get it through parliament, too much cash just sitting there, we will see.

 

Sure then so is Brisbane and goes without saying Adelaide. Perth is about 10% behind Brisbane. Melbourne will take over Sydney as the most populated city in Australia. The current Perth population levels are after loosing many people to net migration loss.

As it stands now, Perth is undoubtedly the most undervalued major capital city property market in Australia.

 

Nah, analyzed to death already. Many saw the writing on the wall and starting taking measures. Besides IO lending is easing up again, NAB for example is doing 4.19% IO only, that is very competitive. Investors that got lost in the Syd/Melb frenzy towards the peak and over leveraged were set to fail from the start anyway, if not IO then something else will take them down. When stretched to the limits anything will break.

 

Yes it may get blocked in the senate but it is not looking good for LRBAs. Follow our discussion in the SMSF sub-forum.

 

Forgetting one thing..... to change to NAB or refinance ......rules have changed you need your house revalued, wont work too well in most Perth markets and you need to be able to service debt under new guidelines. Why did oz market go south??? Investors cant source finance, many investors are out

It does not just impact Syd/Melb investors it impacts on all investors whose loans are reverting from IO to I@P

I have just been down this road, and there will be others, tack 40% on the loan repayments

I had to use another lender and they valued my property and wanted full financials. Got the loan, but if I could not meet this I was up for $3000 per month more on 1 loan

We are talking billions in loans

 

You are wrong

You forgot something, even if investors were able to use another lender they need to get their home revalued, wont work too well in Perth market. Those 5 year IO only loans are close to expiry dates, or already expired

They also need to be able to service debt. Why did the market go south? Cos investors can not meet new servicing criteria

This will impact on any investor whose loan is reverting back to I&P,

I had to switch from AMP. It would have cost me $3k per month, 40% on top of repayment, one loan. I had my house revalued and had to provide full financials

RBA have already warned we are talking billions in loans

 

Not all IO loans will trigger full applications. Agree that it affects investors everywhere but in absolute dollar terms is much less painful here. IO Cliff has been in the works for a few years now.

A friend recently moved from from IO (3 years into the 30 year term) to 30 year PI without valuation but just providing full financials. A good broker will present all options and sometimes there won't be any in which case not having over leveraged in the first place is the lesson. Not talking about you ofcourse, you are a legend. Respect.

 

I would be interested on @euro73 take on this, his very much clued up with this

 

Not denying the process or the outcomes, just saying that it has been in the works already and many started taking action. Some will get caught in the mess, nevertheless. It's impact on the already depressed current Perth market may or may not be as it's made out to be. Only will time will.

 

Lets see

Is this the legendary aka Ausprop?? John

 

@Redom and @TheSackedWiggle posted at length on both sides of this.

 

I was already accused of that but I am not. Happy to take credit though

 

Ok will check this out thx

 

OK, But you never replied

LOL

 

Haha, I did reply - Where are they now?

 

Something slightly positive for Perth, from latest Corelogic monthly YouTube update. New listings way down (they were still trending up 12 months ago) and total listings down 4.2%. It's not amazing, but a positive movement like this hasn't happened for several years if I recall.

Time on market and vendor discounting is also down YoY, however this is probably a case of sellers adjusting their expectation to meet the market. And of course rents are slightly up.

 

This will certainly effect some homeowners and some investors for sure but not all. In my case I have moved all my loans to P&I at lower interest rates because the numbers work for me. All my IO loans were due to roll over to P&I during peak IO to P&I rolleover referred to as the P&I cliff. I took control of the situation because I don't like the idea of driving over a cliff.

Personally, I think the P&I cliff has been overstated but we will see. I am happy to be proven wrong because if prices really do collapse then it will present buying opportunies for investors who are prepared. I would go again at the right price. Why not?

 

now you've got me thinking of
good track, thanks @Aaron Sice