WA Perth market 2019

{Note from mods - this thread continued from here: WA - Perth market 2018}



Well, all in all 2018 was another dud year for Perth property. Median price down 4.7% down for the year, I dare say worse than most expected after things looked like they were leveling off early in the year.
https://thewest.com.au/business/hou...-cent-slide-in-value-over-2018-ng-b881063045z

On the upside:

• plenty of good buys around, and
• Perth scraped in to be better than the national average, and well and truly outperformed the Sydney and Melbourne markets

Fingers crossed for a less painful 2019.

 

The rental market is the only barometer that matters now.

 

Does anyone know what selling tactic they are using here? Why increase the price by 75k in this market? Did they always want over 1.1m and were baiting buyers? Or was there a flurry of offers so the increased the price? If it was too cheap at 1.025m then i would have thought mutliple buyers would have pushed up the offer, or they would have taken it off the market for a few weeks then relisted with the new price.
https://www.realestate.com.au/property/35-shaw-rd-dianella-wa-6059

28 Dec 18 Normal Sale From $1,100,000 Passmore Real Estate - Morley
17 Dec 18 Normal Sale From $1,025,000
16 Dec 18 Auction
25 Nov 18 Auction OFFERS
22 Nov 18 Auction Auction

 

I have heard of this as a tactic or read it somewhere. Ill guess as to what i remember the book or net saying...

Its based on buyers seeing a number ie price is $100 all the buyers try and get it for $90 and offer $90 not what theyre after which is $100.

So they then gain a bit of traction and increase to $110 in the hope someone offers $100 which is ultimatly what theyre after. Plenty of buyers out there who will always offer 5 or 10% below asking price and think theyre getting something at a discounted rate. REA are aware of this as theyd do the same so they put it 5-10% above what the seller actually wants.

This may have happened here

 

It can be a couple of things:
1. an offer was made at $1.09m that was not accepted. The REA is then, I believe, obliged to increase the price on the listing.
2. the $1.025m was fishing and multiple offers did come in and it became apparent that the sellers weren't going to accept below $1.1m so the REA changed it
3. delusional sellers. Evidently it didn't hit reserve at auction on 16/12 and they just want more and more money.

 

Prices in Perth are now back down to March 2009 levels. I thought they would start recovering in 2018 as well. Net interstate migration for Perth was -6000. In good times net interstate migration is positive for Perth. Prices will start rising eventually but as you said it's a great buying opportunity, particularly for PPOR atm.

 

Still a few concerns about it rising. If buying PPOR like myself i still feel you can lowball a little. Concerns about Labor winning the May federal election will halt any improvement to the general market.

However on the street in the areas im looking and talking to a few REAs sellers that cant get what theyre after are now tending to rent the place and hold for change in market. I guess the drop in vacancy helps this now.

What im finding hard to predict is whether rates increase or decrease in the next 12 months. Banks may look to improve confidence in IO loans. I hear that one of the major lenders has lost a fair chunk of lending amounts due to the tightening and then i hear 'rates are going to rise' aswell.

I guess one has to happen. They either need greater quantity of loans or with the lesser amount to be charging a hire rate.

2019 a stabilising/plateauing period for me

 

Most people say that prices will eventually go up in Perth.However,I am of the opinion that past performance may indicate future performance only "when underlying fundamentals are intact" and I don't think they are intact now or will in future.More and more people are leaving Perth because of lack of employment opportunities.

 

I think further price declines are likely, and there is no price boom around the corner, but the Perth market does have a few things going for it in 2019 compared to 2018:

• Key metrics like wages growth, inflation, population growth, unemployment etc, whilst still weak, are better than 12 months ago and are only expected to keep improving
• Government and regulators are likely to loosen credit a bit further and may throw the fiscal and monetary kitchen sink at the economy, to stem the falls in the east coast markets. Perth can benefit from this
• Vacancy rates are closer to 'normal' levels, and are likely to return to levels that will put upward pressure on rents during 2019 if the recent trend of improvement continues.

On the topic of vague predictions, don't forget to check what the "experts" predict for the Perth market in 2019.
Perth property market outlook: experts' market predictions for 2019 | Community News Group

Got to laugh at the fact that big chunks of text are literally copied and pasted from the 2018 article...

 

How do I find if a block has subdivision potential / is in the process of being subdivided? Someone mentioned it could be found in the gazette. Is this true?

 

All town planning schemes are gazetted but that is probably not what you are asking.

To learn if a block has subdivision potential you will need to know it's current zoning and use the R Codes of WA page 59 to determine if it's large enough in size to accomodate subdivision. It can be helpful to use the measuring tools on the council mapping sites if you want to retain the existing house.

If you are looking to find if a council is proposing some rezoning then they may have a draft Town Planning Scheme and maps on the council website.

 

Where is back to 2009 prices?

 

Mainly outer suburban regions including:

Mandurah Investment Property Market Data
Rockingham Investment Property Market Data
Wellard Investment Property Market Data
Byford Investment Property Market Data
Armadale Investment Property Market Data
Seville Grove Investment Property Market Data

 

^^^ They are all pretty dud areas to buy anyway

 

The whole city based on the ABS index. Not as desktop so can’t verify but if you are it’s easy to check. Rents are certainly at levels last seen a decade ago.

 

Yes, not really the market I watch. My bank manager said that too. Mainly newer and southern suburbs hit . She said Northern suburbs held up better apart from Caversham where a lot of FIFO built and newer outer suburbs.
Yes rents are still shocking everywhere! @DAZ79. I was looking a bit around Hillarys to buy about a year ago. I saw a house that they wanted offers over $800,000. The advertising pic was photo shopped, the extension was a horrible rabbit warren, you had to go up steps to get to the backyard, it needed a total Reno, and it sold within a few days. It put me off looking! It was in a nice street but pretty far from ocean.

 

Can anyone help me with the term 'Sale Advised by Government'

What does this mean?

 

Based on REA invest id say areas like Marangaroo and Alexander Heights are pretty much back to this level

....... i know median prices dont exactly mean everything but when 70 properties have sold in given year then the ouliers are less significant?

Still outer suburbs

 

Probably that its a government asset sale?

 

Was previously a couple with a 10 month old. Only male clothes inside property and photos of baby with dad and cards to dad but not to mum or with mum

Was previousily bought by the couple