WA Perth market 2018

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Prash, 9th Jan, 2018.

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  1. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

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    No index for the city as a whole shows a 25% drop. More like 10%.


    So, clearly, some places have deflating quicker than others.


    What I find strange about those areas experiencing those hits is how close they are to the city and the amenity they have.


    The only thing that explains it to me is investors accepting big discounts to get out.
     
  2. thatbum

    thatbum Well-Known Member

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    10% or 25%, if its just median house price, then I don't think the stats are reliable enough to make any real judgements on.

    You need to do like for like comparisons on similar properties.
     
  3. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    the discounting in Spearwood / Midland is INSANE - and well under value IMO.
     
  4. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    Indeed. But look at those areas.

    Yokine/tuart hill went through a pretty significant gentrification period. 3/2 vanilla villas is the new thing, and they are everywhere. But there is only so much demand for that product, and more keeps hitting the market.

    Spearwood is the same.
    Not really much different to balga. Well. Same same but different.

    Belmont will (has) gone the same way.

    Blacky
     
  5. Xiao Hui

    Xiao Hui Well-Known Member

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    Hello,

    Like to know anyone's thought about Midland in WA. As someone mentioned, the level of discount here was "insane".

    I understand this area is going through upgrading and is poised to be something like a mini CBD of Perth?

    House prices here are still pretty cheap I can see. Prices have gone done a fair bit and still stucked at the lower level. Is it worthy to invest in houses here, esp in areas near to shopping area and the Train Station?
     
  6. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    Please could you plug in a loan of $550000 into a spreadsheet and calculate out the separate P and I repayments on an average loan and assume no renovations (which is unlikely, but so be it) and then add all purchase and selling costs including stamp duty for a property bought in April 2007 for $687500 and sold today for the same price or to be more factual, probably about $600000, which is what that house is going for today, and tell me if your majority of home buyers, not investors, in Perth Australia has made any money? Then deduct inflation of close to 3% every year and please convince me they did.
     
  7. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

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    It’s not so much the house type but the location.


    Stone’s throw from the city.


    I am not surprised by the falls; just the magnitude.
     
  8. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

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    I have.

    The falls are staggering.

    3 beds selling for high fours in 2015/16 are coming on the market asking 390-400k.

    That's crash territory and there is nothing stopping even bigger falls.
     
  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Developers went hard in 2013/14 now too much stock in particular 6060 villas/town houses

    Deve sites in demand but perhaps 15% off prices in 2013/14
     
  10. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I don't need to convince you of anything mate. You have made an unsupported claim, based on median house prices and guesswork.

    I know plenty of people who have made money in that time. Markets within markets within markets. Is the Armadale property market the same as the South Karrinyup market? No? Didn't think so. So exactly how useful is the "Perth median house price" in determining if "most buyers" made money or not? I will give you a clue. 0. Zero. Nada. Nothing.

    But keep going. It's great for entertainment and a good laugh. :D
     
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  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    If you purchased and sold in 2013/14 in Perth good chance you made money, rising market during this period
     
    Last edited: 29th May, 2018
  12. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Good point, but only in some areas. Some markets were (mini) booming at this time, some going backwards, some going sideways.
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Started with sub 500k FHB market and development sites etc. FHB incentives helped drive this market
    Govt rezoned many suburbs close prox to city and off loaded stock in State housing suburbs ie Koondoola/Girrawheen, Lockridge, Coolibellup etc ......BOOM

    Inner city apartments, OTP also rose
    Many markets moved

    Higher end stuff did zip..... still waiting
     
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  14. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I followed Embleton, Belmont, Cloverdale, East Cannington and Beckenham at the time. It was crazy!

    One home open in Embleton in 2013 that had been on the market for 3 days. There were over 100 people at the home open, with many wanting to put in offers. It was so tense that I left because it felt like there was going to be a punch up! 18 offers and it went under offer than night for $552,000. There is something similar around the corner, on the market now (bigger block) for $479,950.
     
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  15. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    I have tracked multiple houses I and my mates have sold in multiple suburbs all around PERTH and when we sold them in 2007 and 2008 we know what we achieved. We have crawled the suburbs of PERTH I have been to hundreds of home opens in my life and I have my big database of prices of properties and when I attended them. We know what the same houses are selling for now or have sold for in the last two years as their new owners lost jobs, just sold to move into the Sydney market or retired and moved on. Let me assure you if they only bought like I said they have lost money. But do the spreadsheet to convince yourself.
     
  16. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    There is a chance indeed if you did that. The peak of prices was actually October/November in 2015. Then by December nobody was buying.
     
  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Better if investors sold end of 2014, as market sentiment changed rapidly from positive to negative.

    Don't you love property... all about the timing
     
  18. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I understand a lot of houses in Perth are worth less now than in 2007. If someone bought to hold in 2007 then there is a good chance they are behind. 2007 was not a good year to buy a house in Perth.

    But go back to your post and it clearly states "from 2007", implying if they bought after 2007 and sold now, they would be behind. Maybe. Maybe not.

    Consider Bayswater. Median house price in 2009 was $490k and in 2017 was $565k. I am not arguing that is stellar growth. It's not. And if I could be bothered tracking interest rates over the last 9 years on a $392k loan then maybe they would be marginally behind. However, consider if they were renting in Bayswater instead over the same time and now they are ahead.

    It's not that simple. Bought in 2007 to now and lost money? I agree with. Bought "from 2007" to now and lost money? I don't agree with. My opinion. Don't take it personally.

    It's irrelevant anyway. Anyone who sold in Perth in 2007, bought well in Sydney or Melbourne, and sold now is going to be miles ahead of any Perth investor buying in Perth.

    I was looking at dumps in Melbourne in 2007 in the 300k's, now selling 900k+ to over a million. Miles ahead of Perth.
     
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  19. Propin

    Propin Well-Known Member

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    I think I may be worth looking into near where the train station is getting moved to. I think it will make a positive difference.
     
  20. Xiao Hui

    Xiao Hui Well-Known Member

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    Propin

    Thanks for that. I understand this surburb a fair no of lower socio ecominical people staying here hence lowering its desirability. But there again, it is not too far from the CBD plus it's like a mini town of its own. Most importantly, some houses here are so cheap. I think if the market comes back, these houses will appreciate in value well esp those near amenities.
     
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