WA Perth market 2018

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Prash, 9th Jan, 2018.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Big Daddy

    Big Daddy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    998
    Location:
    Perth
    What 'key' ABS statistics do you guys use? I was attempting the use the below ABS Statistics with a 6 month moving average (seasonally adjusted) to determine when to jump back in the Perth market. I didnt want too much information overload so i was trying to only chart the main ones that have an impact on prices. eg I think Migrations data might already show up in the below data series

    ABS Residential House Price index - Table 1. Residential Property Price Index, Index Numbers and Percentage Changes
    ABS Housing Finance Committments - TABLE 5. HOUSING FINANCE COMMITMENTS (Owner Occupation), By State/Territory:(Number) and TABLE 10b. HOUSING FINANCE COMMITMENTS (Owner Occupation), By Purpose: State, Original ($000) <- I could not find the non Owner Occupier data (Table 12 didnt have the data i need)
    ABS Building Approvals - TABLE 16. Number of Dwelling Units Approved, By Sector, Original - Western Australia
     
  2. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,034
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
  3. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,767
    Location:
    Perth
    Sackie and icic like this.
  4. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    16th Dec, 2016
    Posts:
    1,109
    Location:
    sydney
    Lots of bargain to be had in Perth. Lots of places down South are way below their replacement value. If only my hands are not tied.
     
  5. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th May, 2018
    Posts:
    595
    Location:
    perth
    I like the bit at the end where she says that despite all these applications for sub-division the actual rate of building is at an historic low.


    Building will only start rising when prices do; and that won’t happen until demand mops up the existing oversupply.
     
  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,034
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.

    I hear ya buddy. I have been itching for a long time to get a site in Perth. The 'problem' is there is so much opportunity in Brisbane atm that there is no need to look elsewhere. I would though like to secure a site in Perth and rent it out and hold, even with a negative shortfall that's fine if the site has great potential.

    I strongly believe that most fortunes in real estate were made when land was bought at **** cheap prices during slumps, then developed later on.
     
    charttv likes this.
  7. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Feb, 2018
    Posts:
    1,010
    Location:
    Perth
    I'm pretty sure that the outer suburbs they quote for high subdivision numbers in the first graph (Baldivis, Wellard, Golden Bay for example) are not mums & dads doing urban infill at all, and actually just normal development of rural/greenfield land into suburban lots. I suspect there is not actually an urban infill subdivision boom occurring in Perth, and that this might be a desperate Perth property industry trying to stoke some activity. But maybe I'm just cynical...
     
    Cmelderis likes this.
  8. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,034
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    No idea mate. Just posting another piece of a puzzle. Interesting times though . At some point im sure Perth will shine again . Would love to have a crystal ball...:)
     
    charttv and Rex like this.
  9. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Feb, 2018
    Posts:
    1,010
    Location:
    Perth
    I noticed the bargain prices of development sites in Central Mandurah recently. Quarter acre R60 blocks with (just) rentable old houses have been going for circa $250K. My rough calcs suggest you'd break even doing a 4-6 unit development in current market, but there should be good money to made when the market eventually improves. Getting $200/week rent on the existing house is a 4% gross yield, so holding costs are minimal while waiting (potentially many years) for the market to significantly pick up.
    Downside is the plentiful similar blocks still undeveloped, and probably lots of people sitting on them waiting to do a similar thing.
    Thoughts? Anybody done developments in this area?
     
  10. Westminster

    Westminster Tigress at Tiger Developments Business Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,331
    Location:
    Perth
    Run
    Run faster
    On the plus side those blocks probably couldn't get much lower but they have been sitting around that price for years now.
    Mandurah crashed and burned and never even rose during last boom.
    Your $200pw house will require $300 of maintenance per week, then get trashed leaving you in tears.
    Harsh words from me but it's ultra high risk thinking about anything down there. It will come good one day but it will tie up your money with opportunity cost. Spend it more wisely
     
  11. Rentvester

    Rentvester Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Aug, 2017
    Posts:
    127
    Location:
    WA
    Wise words as usual Myf! I think Mandurah will take a lot longer to come good? Are there are major drivers of growth down south?Armadale would be a better bet for a long game I reckon.
     
  12. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,767
    Location:
    Perth
    No need to speculate. State lot activity will tell you

    State Lot Activity
     
    JohnPropChat likes this.
  13. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    10th Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    2,293
    Location:
    Middle Earth
    The only blocks I'll look at in Mandurah are the canal blocks but it's more of a lifestyle choice than good investments.
     
  14. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,588
    Location:
    Ocean Reef, WA
    Some canal lots have current development potential.
     
    charttv and JohnPropChat like this.
  15. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,588
    Location:
    Ocean Reef, WA
    Wow 25% more land in the system than the last quarter.....!
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  16. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,588
    Location:
    Ocean Reef, WA
    Lots in the very centre of town (east not north) might be okay.

    But there's better places to park your money.
     
  17. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    10th Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    2,293
    Location:
    Middle Earth
    Agreed. So many good opportunities in Perth at the moment.
     
  18. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th May, 2018
    Posts:
    595
    Location:
    perth
    Thanks for posting.


    You say it will tell us a lot. I am unsure what it is telling us. What is it telling you?


    Isn’t the only indicator that matters actual housing commencements?
     
  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,767
    Location:
    Perth
    Someone said "I suspect there is not actually an urban infill subdivision boom occurring in Perth"

    No need to speculate. There is a factual report to answer this.
     
  20. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th May, 2018
    Posts:
    595
    Location:
    perth
    Yeah, I get that. It’s just that I don’t know that the key takeaways from that document are.

    Particularly because it only has one year of data.

    Does it show a sub-division boom or not and, if it does, are we to expect that to flow into commencements anytime soon?
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.