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Perth is entering Boom cycle

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Ald, 12th Nov, 2016.

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  1. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    Yes circular trains and circular free ways
     
  2. Xiao Hui

    Xiao Hui Well-Known Member

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    Singapore started building the MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) system in the early 1980s when it's population was just 2.3 million and the country still considered "Third World". Despite numerous issues, it pushed ahead with the programme and now 30 years later, the MRT boasts 142 stations throughout the city with ridership of 2 million among its total population of 5.5 million. Trains come once every 3 minutes during peak hour and once every 8 minutes during off peak. And the last train operate till midnight 12am.

    The building of the MRT is still being done at a rapid pace in Singapore and it was envisaged that by 2030, 80 percent of its population will live within a 10 minutes walk from any station. Driving a car by then, will be considered more of a luxury rather than a necessity. Indeed, if you arrive today as a tourist in Singapore, you can take the MRT from the airport to almost anywhere you want. It is clean, cheap and comfortable. The max price for a ticket for a 40km journey is A$2.50 per person. I have hardly heard of any tourists who go to Singapore needing to drive.

    Even the other less affluent Asian cities like Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta, not to mention the numerous cities in China, are also aggressively expanding and building their own version of MRT in order to cope with future city growth now.

    In comparision, nothing seems to be happening in Perth. It's train system, once highly admired compared to Singapore's (which was non existent) in the 1970s and 80s, is now considered a laughing stock. The first thing many tourists, after exiting from the Perth Airport do, is to collect their rental cars and busily installing GPS or looking at their goggle maps. This is how much we have lagged behind the rest of the world.

    Perth is envisaged to contain upwards of 4 million people 25 years later. If nothing is done to radically improve its public tansport system now, it might be too late to do anything then. This is really no rocket science theory. If so many less endowed countries can plan ahead and invest in public infrastructures, what excuses a resource rich city like Perth have?
     
    Last edited: 11th Jan, 2017
  3. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    Stupidity is a good excuse.

    By their stupidity in WA they will have 40 billion debt.
    By the people's stupidity they allowed it. When I was telling people that the 8 billion debt in WA was unacceptable over 5 years ago people would look at me like I was from Mars.

    The citizens are too stupid to realise that when governments have debt, the taxpayers will have the price of everything increased, from GST, to car registration, to national parks entry, to land tax, to stamp duty, school fees, emergency levies, rates, medical fees, Medicare levies, childcare, everything. They are so stupid here they get angry if the government does not have a debt because they reason that the government is not spending money on them.

    Look in Sydney they have to demolish nearly 40 buildings to build a metro line. This is only to play catch up and still far from being. Enough. The cost is many billions.

    Many billions more then it would have costed had this been planned 3 decades ago.

    They are still not planning anywhere in Australia for 20 years time.

    Stupid as can be dumb assess

    It will end by property prices dropping because no extra money in the wider economy to support small and medium and large businesses. You can't cheat economics Infinetely, you can't sell assets infinitely.

    By having property prices double in Sydney from a median of $550k to $1.2 million in the space of 5 years what do you think the impact will be? That young worker will just stop buying clothes, gadgets, going to restaurants and clubs, having that coffee , hold off buying a car so that he can afford the higher rent and save up for a home deposit. He or she will leave Sydney Australia to live in a place they can earn money and save more. Now if all the young people do that how much less money is being spent. Remember that Sydney was stagnant already for more then a decade, already it was too expensive, the only thing that changed is a desperate government let foreigners buy property and that led to a knock on effect. The underlying economics for the population mass that lives there however has just got worse.
     
  4. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    That's why investing In Perth is just so sensible. It's the only place in Australia with abundant resources and is still completely undeveloped and being on the same time zone and so close to ASIA it will eventually become bigger then Sydney.
     
  5. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    Perth is also the cheapest place to buy property in Australia now and it's economy is beginning to take off.
     
  6. JL1

    JL1 Active Member

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    Ald given the lack of any actual numbers behind your calls, I've put together a likely scenario based on your events that could start the boom:

    Asian investment company CEO: "we've decided our holdings in Sydney and Melbourne are too far away so we're investing in Perth now because its so much closer and their people are awake when we are"

    Company Analyst: "but sir they have $40bn state debt, Melbourne is $2.7bn surplus"

    CEO: "Perth. Its just so sensible."

    Analyst: "Perth has less than half the population of each other state that is growing at a slower place"

    CEO: "yes, but they are closer. Migrants will always reach Perth first, and they won't have to change their watches. Very convenient."

    Analyst: "Perth has a fraction of the finance industry of Sydney and Melbourne, net loss of 5% of jobs over the last 2 yea..."

    CEO: "pretty sure I overheard Goldman the other day saying they were relocating their APAC HQ"

    Analyst "But sir, they're building almost one house for each new residen.."

    CEO: "Stop, young one. Do you realise Sydney are demolishing 40 buildings in order to expand their public transport system?! They will have so much debt from that!"

    Analyst: "... like, $40bn?"
     
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  7. Hwangers

    Hwangers Well-Known Member

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    how is the public transport system in Perth? Do people commute via buses more than trains then?

    Understand majority drive, what about the roads and freeways - congested during peak hour or relatively ok?

    As population becomes denser would assume that there will be a more heavy reliance on public transport options in the medium term
     
  8. Phase2

    Phase2 Well-Known Member

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    It's ok, but not great. Trains have one line that runs north south, and one that runs east west, both intersecting at the CBD. There's a heavy reliance on buses, even just for a connection to the train.

    The problem is the amount of urban sprawl. Perth has a pretty low population density, so creating a rail network to support all of it is very expensive.
    The other problem is the population's desire to drive everywhere, which is understandable because Perth is so spread-out, and in summer it's too hot to feel like walking anywhere, and in winter it's too wet...
     
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  9. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    A lot of City workers commute to work via buses and trains. Trains can be so crowded in the morning that people can't board. That said, it is a version of Perth crowded, where someone from Japan would jump on the "empty train" someone from Perth would skip because it is "too full".

    The freeways into the City become a parking lot in the morning. Trying to drive into the City during peak hour in the freeways is madness.

    We need a lot more public transport and the state government has started the next round of public transport building projects. We need more but apparently it is stupid to get into debt to build it? :rolleyes:

    If you want a case study in state debt, check out MetroNet.
     
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  10. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    While this is mostly true, there are exceptions. I rarely drive. I bus, train, ride and walk most places I go. There are others like me but as @Phase2 says, most prefer to drive everywhere.
     
  11. Phase2

    Phase2 Well-Known Member

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    Yep, I'm generalising for the sake of describing most of Perth's population. I usually bus or ride to work, walk or ride to local shops/cafes etc... but everywhere else requires driving.
     
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  12. Hwangers

    Hwangers Well-Known Member

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    you should see the roads and transport options here in Sydney - actually you wouldn't be able to with all the people... on weekends unless you start really early or really late the main and secondary roads become car parks

    Anyway I digress - thanks for the replies, do you Perth locals think that there is a decent premium paid for properties in close proximity to train stations and bus stops? of course there will always be a premium but is it valued as highly as say in Melb or Syd? Otherwise like you both kindly mention - if everyone drives, would be a longer mental shift to value public transport highly

    From reading can see a fair bit of council proposed/implemented rezoning for properties within say 400m to the train station or bus interchange so perhaps there are changes afoot!
     
  13. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I have found most people drive. I live 7 to 8 minutes walk to the local shopping centre. Most people in my street drive there. I usually walk.

    My observation is backed up by research:

    Each day Perth residents take more than 400,000 private car trips of less than a kilometre and equivalent to a 10 minute walk.

    http://www.transport.wa.gov.au/mediaFiles/projects/PROJ_P_Travel_Demand_Management__Plan.pdf

    That is crazy!
     
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  14. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    It depends on the area but for sure in some areas there are price increases around train stations. I know because that is where I want to buy for a PPoR site. I don't know if the price premium is as much or Melb or Syd but definitely noticeable in some areas.
     
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  15. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    I read somewhere that WA has 2mln registered vehicles. basically a car for every resident. Which means more than one per licensed driver.

    I honestly dont know a single person, over the legal driving age, who doesnt have a car.

    Blacky
     
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  16. DoubleD

    DoubleD Well-Known Member

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  17. Big Daddy

    Big Daddy Well-Known Member

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    2.7M registered vehicles (including trailers, caravans, motorbikes, taxis) etc. Many have a personal car and work car, eg fleets

    1.9M active licences

     
  18. Big Daddy

    Big Daddy Well-Known Member

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    Because its on a main road? or the shape of the block?
     
  19. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    I'm learning that you have to be really careful with stats...and it seems to be the smaller the town, the less reliable the stats are (sample size, remoteness etc...).

    Not saying that those stats are wrong, but it wouldn't hurt to have more than one source. Especially if you're thinking of investing in a remote town.
     
  20. Realist35

    Realist35 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks mate.

    I definitely gave up on investing in any remote/regional areas. Instead I'll be focusing on capitals with >1M population, that is Sidney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.

    And I think @MTR is 100% right. Only invest in rising markets. Hence makes very little sense to invest in Hedland, who knows when it'll starting rising?
     
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