WA Perth housing and unit prices slump

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by cashnow, 1st Aug, 2015.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    So it's worse than some expected.

    September will tell the story as it's a likely time for more redundancies to be announced.
     
  2. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,930
    Location:
    there's more to life than working
    Only a few more percentage points until it matches Karratha's 32% drop eh?
     
  3. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    Nobody said it would match Karratha's percentages. If you can produce a post alluding to that, then fine, otherwise shut it.

    But it's obvious what is going on up there is having an effect in Perth.
     
  4. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,304
    Location:
    Democratic People's Republic of Australia
  5. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    Perth is maintaining a furious pace, and with the apartment glut about to impact, it would take abrave man to take an educated bet on where it will taper off.
     
  6. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,930
    Location:
    there's more to life than working
    So perhaps you can explain how Karratha is a barometer of what's going to happen in Perth?

    Karratha is a complete different market to Perth. In fact, there are markets within the Perth market. What happens in Dalkeith is different to what happens in Mandurah, Forrestfield, Joondalup and inner city apartments.
     
  7. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    I've already detailed that.

    Yes there are markets within markets but what do you think the percentage drops are currently as the scale slides towards the 1 million and up price bracket?

    I'd hazard a guess and say we are heading towards some pretty thick percentage drops even at the lower end of that level... if it isn't already in vogue.

    There is a high incidence of properties listed with simply "offers" on them, many that failed to sell at auction.

    Rents are dropping whilst vacancy rates go up with massive amounts of supply coming on line.

    Construction phase of major projects in the Pilbara are moving closer to completion.
    Perfect storm.
     
  8. sanj

    sanj Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,461
    Location:
    Perth

    Massive amounts of supply? I don't believe it is as bad as that
     
  9. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    What do you perceive it to be as bad as?
     
  10. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,930
    Location:
    there's more to life than working
    No one is arguing that the short run for Perth is contraction of prices. But to say that Karratha is a barometer for Perth... is b.s. How does Karratha's 10% annual declines for the last 5 years, and 32% last 12 months, reflective of Perth?

    It's almost as ludicrous as saying Gold Coast and Perth are the same. Oh hang on... You already tried to make that argument on ss.
     
    Aaron Sice likes this.
  11. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    I did make that argument, it's common knowledge that rarely do either have a happy medium.

    You should try producing something to support what you say instead of an endless stream of empty statements.

    I'm pretty sure I said Karratha was a pretty good barometer for Perth, without the extremes in percentage drops.

    Seems a valid statement, only someone resembling an ostrich would suggest that what is going on up that way, and the perception of it's impact, is not having any effect in Perth.
     
  12. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,930
    Location:
    there's more to life than working
    Funny. I haven't made any statements. I've just challenged your statement why you believe Karratha is a barometer for Perth. You keep saying it, without presenting any facts or data to support your hypothesis.

    I agree that Perth has a negative outlook. But I guarantee that I will still be making asset gains in the next few years, whilst some others are screaming the sky is falling.
     
  13. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    But I have, the facts do support my argument.
    Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
    In this case, it was Karratha. Now the influence of the party being over up in that region is impacting on what is going on in Perth.

    The pace of the decline will increase to mirror it even more.
    Fact

    You're last statement is simply empty rhetoric.

    We can all be tycoons from the safety of the keyboard.
     
  14. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,930
    Location:
    there's more to life than working
    I'm fascinated. You keep saying that, but I seriously can't find any facts that you've presented to support your argument. Maybe I'm just really really stupid.

    And yes, evidently, everyone is an armchair expert on a discussion forum.
     
  15. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    Let me make it more simplistic for you.
    If Karratha was positively buoyant, or merely just neutral, would Perth be negative? :D
     
  16. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,930
    Location:
    there's more to life than working
    I don't know. What? Maybe not simple enough for a simpleton like me?

    But...
     
  17. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,066
    Location:
    Bali
    Personally Im still waiting for any evidence from you that Karratha is a good barometer for Perth.
    The markets rely on separate economic factors. Although these aren't totally independent of each other (i.e. one may impact the other) to indicate that what happens in one will happen in the other is incorrect.

    The below doesn't show the last 5years. but the separation is fairly obvious.



    content-img-hso-wa-2.jpg
     
    mrdobalina likes this.
  18. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,588
    Location:
    Ocean Reef, WA
    Karratha is NO barometer for Perth, the state's capital and home to nearly 2mil people.

    Changes in Geraldton or Bunbury or Kalgoorlie would have a greater impact than Karratha - especially considering house prices there are NOT related directly to the FIFO condition - being that permanent residency is exactly what Karratha was grown for.

    In fact, I would suggest our Wheat and Sheep / Cattle exports are a better barometer of the health of Perth - and grains especially are looking forward to a bumper crop with most of the wheatbelt experiencing 240 of their annual 280mm average rainfall already.

    Karratha and PH are barometers for the health of the commodities export industry.

    Blacky's graph above is a better representation of how far removed those markets are from the metro area.
     
  19. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,588
    Location:
    Ocean Reef, WA
    condescending tones aside, last time Karratha took off Perth didn't move.

    last time prices in PH slipped (took a dive? fell out of the sky?) Perth was on the up and up.
     
  20. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Perth
    Considering it's missing 5 years of data, not difficult to disagree with that.
    240mm of rain in the wheatbelt isn't going to stop the bleeding in Perth.


    In real terms Perth could not be described as being on the up and up anytime in about the last 7 years.

    It's certainly following them down now however, although without the extreme percentage drops, which is exactly what I said.

    However I would say in that 1 million plus bracket the percentage drops would be significantly closer.to those extremes.
     

Buy Property Interstate WITHOUT Dropping $15k On Buyers Agents Each Time! Helping People Achieve PASSIVE INCOME Using Our Unique Data-Driven System, So You Can Confidently Buy Top 5% Growth & Cashflow Property, Anywhere In Australia