WA Perth bottoming out?

Hi all

I don't think it's news to anyone that Perth prices are now coming down now that a large amount of the construction in the mining has finished and the lay offs due to the ore prices.

My question is, do you guys with the experience thin that it has a way to go yet or out is near the end of its drop. I think it has a way to go yet. I'm seeing houses that were $280k now at $250k roughly and it looks as though there are more and more hitting the market.

Is timing the market as important as time in the market? Do you wait or move anyway?

My intention, finance providing, is to buy one unit in the gold coast and a house in Rockingham area that i can add value to. It seems to make sense to buy the Gold coast one first as that's said to be a rising market and that'll give me time to watch the perth market but still make a move, progress and get started.

 

I'd be waiting for a while before buying in Rockingham - we should get plenty of notice before the market starts its upswing.

 

The rent market will probably move first. Unless there's good demand levels for property by tenants, investors won't move in.

 

I'm in a similar position. I'm not experienced enough to sort out the noise from the gold so I decided to make my own data set.

Every Friday after work I open up re.com.au and not down the number of listings.
I then go to the sqm research website and not down the vacancy rates (one a month).
Put all this into a spreadsheet and over time it becomes pretty clear what is happening (not just from the data, opening up re.com.au regularly will give you a gut feel for what is happening as well).

Will graduate to an rp data account this year, but will probably keep this going as the information is valuable.

Just keep in mind the margin of error.... This will show you trends only.

 

So what have you found from the data?

 

Listings and vacancy rates are still increasing quickly......

Got a long way to go up here at least.

 

So do you wait it out or do you look interstate?

 

I have been tracking 9 popular inner/middle ring suburbs over the past 4 months. 4 of the 9 suburbs have actually decreased their lisitngs....

 

Buy interstate while waiting it out

 

I was talking about Darwin which is a different animal to Perth. However, the past 4 months won't be enough time to get a trend happening clearly. Things go wierd around Xmas time and a "normality" starts coming together around about now...at least that's what the last 2 years of Darwin data says...

Also maybe add a bigger net to your numbers? Keep to going with the data on your target suburbs, but maybe add a couple of extra columns for "greater Perth" and the general postcodes of the area of interest?

 

Perth Market is struggling and still has allot of room to drop. I have had a few clients in Perth where values from the last three months vs values from three years ago have dropped off to a scary level.

 

Certain pockets are going well - I know my local area is selling well, with only minor discounting. One property was under offer within a week, and not much on market at all. Could be seasonal though being beachside. I'm going to be waiting for winter

 

My area is still dropping. Prices are coming off and anything not priced appropriate for the area is sitting on the market. Properties are selling but only if priced right for this market.

Both are important but it's obviously not a great move to pay above market value in a falling market. You will have tied up capital in an asset that is falling in value.

Rockingham could still be a way off bottom IMO.

 

I'd be waiting out Perth a little longer before entering - the supply side has only just started to peak, there no doubt will be a point of consolidation, especially with the mixed bag from the economy and slow down in mining.

In any case yields are still negative and there's no boom in immediate sight, so not a screaming buy.

 

Perth has so many negative factors still playing out. Increasing supply coming on. Population declining as mining boom ended. Unemployment rising. Economy declining for same reason. WA state income massively dropped. Any many people who had borrowed and/or leveraged only just starting to deal with the implications. I see very little upside over the next 3 years. Only benefit might be to push for and pick up property at bargain prices from desperate sellers.

Gold Coast is the place to buy right now and almost the exact opposite and outlook. Looking very positive next 3 years and longer term - the growth and positivity is feeding on itself.

 

what suburbs are we seeing the largest fall currently?

 

I'm actually in GC at the moment having viewed property all weekend. Ready to make offers today so that's good to hear. First intentional IP so needless to say I'm a little nervous but that won't stop me pulling the trigger.

I'm in a position to be able to buy something else at maybe the $200k mark maybe more depending on how my finance plays out. Maybe I'll be back over here again soon of your correct about Perth. Thanks for your thoughts

 

Good luck!

 

I'll be waiting for 2017 but keeping an eye on the suburbs I like this year.

 

I don't know the largest but there have been significant falls in Belmont/Cloverdale/Kewdale and Beckenham. For example, from the peak in 2014 for development sites in Cloverdale, based on actual sales at a per square metre rate, prices have dropped about 30%. The scary thing is they don't appear to have bottomed out.