Performance of active funds vs ETFs

If you are going to make an effort to demonstrate a particular investment is 'loss making' from your perspective then it would be respectful to actually do the research and plug in the correct numbers.

This is an ETF thread after all, and as soon as I saw your numbers I knew they were wrong without cross checking. I might not be a former fund manager or whatever and I definitely can't make squillions shorting the market but at least I can look up past dividend payments for and ETF and get it right.

I'm not really sure what your point is trying to convince people that an ETF like VAS is so bad. What business is it of yours really if I invest in VAS because it suits my investment strategy and risk profile?

 

Looks like another example of this poster not checking his facts before posting.

Yep & there it is again.

 

500 monkeys throwing darts for 10 years. 499 monkeys you’ve never heard of. They give up the dart game as they find it unprofitable. But, there is one monkey with a better record than all the others. Monkey gets famous and creates a story. Monkey raises lots of money. Monkey keeps throwing darts but as times go by the magic seems to have been lost. Was there any real insight or skill compared to the other monkeys or just luck ?

Doesn’t matter, he’s clipped the ticket for a decade and now happily retired !

 

Well when I don’t check I explicitly say it (hence I asked whether that was the dividend). Again another example of you guys being super defensive, and missing the point, which is 1.2% IRR or -2% or whatever it is is all the same and not good. Are you happy with 1.2% IRR these 5 years ?

 

Just saying it as I see it. If people make posts or threads about something, there’ll be people who dissent/don’t share the view.

 

Just a baseless generalisation. Is that monkey Soros or Icahn? Or Buffett or Dalio?

 

Play the ball not the man, it’s great to see some two way discussions especially when it involves something we are putting our hard earned in.
I’m glad @Omnidragon has an opposing view as it encourages debate and investigation, those with a rebuttal are providing some great research to back their claims.
I love it guys keep it up and remember people are allowed to have an opposing view

disclaimer: VAS is now my second largest holding

 

Oh I have no problems debating numbers and ideas. It’s entertaining to see how other people think and perhaps even take it apart - it’s a public forum after all.

Comments like “another example of this poster doesn’t check his numbers” when I was clearly asking whether that was the distribution, are pretty defensive/pointless, when the underlying problem is a 1.2% IRR over 5 years is nothing to defend for. If an active fund (whether in shares or private equity or venture cap) had returns like that over 5 years, it’d be out of business pretty quickly

 

Nah, I’m getting too old to keep going over the same old ground. Others no doubt more intelligent than me can continue going around in circles. A much more productive use of my time is working on my bottle top index accumulation fund.

 

Any of them given long enough. In the very long run all revert to the mean.

Soros hasn’t run a fund since 2011. Icahn has lost Money 4 out of the last 6 years. Buffet has underperformed SP500TR for the last decade. Dalio’s Bridgewater got hammered by Corona being caught long. Oops.

 

$1000 invested per month in L1 Long Short Wholesale since inception



$1000 invested per month in VAS over the same period.





VAS wins and thems the facts.

 

But you’re picking short term numbers again? How’s that diff to ETF doing 1.2% over 5 years... or negative in fact over shorter period

 

Ah I don’t like going around sharing funds as that wasn’t my objective. But since we’re so fixated on comparing vs L1. The fund’s actually been around since 2008, just rolled into a new vehicle. So you’d need full data to see. Suffice to say it’s still around and grown because it’s done well.

Give you one with fill data if you’re so keen to run the numbers. DS Capital.

Also there’s one issue in your analysis, which is you assume equal periodic contributions. The figure would look different I’m sure if you made a lump sum upfront contribution. Data can be cut whichever way to suit, as I’m sure you know as someone familiar with data.

 

No idea what you are on about. Equity markets performance is non linear. Gurus run out of steam in the end. If you are looking for a guru you will always find them..because maths. I understand the way you are approaching this. It’s first level stuff. Zero value bantering further on this.

Now back to etfs please.

 

Oi! BTI. Last sentence. Patented. Grr.

 

You're right Omnidragon, ETF's are terrible.

If you have any just can you transfer them to me in-specie? 20% below their 'market' value will be fine, as I know its probably hard to unload them as they aren't very liquid assets...

 

Again just another generalisation- gurus run out of steam at the end. I can make generalisations too - good managers in the long run outperform the market.

But ok... Check out the DS Capital I posted. Consistent 10-15%. But you’ll say it’s early days after 7 years, yet make a comparison on Coronavirus impact on Bridgewater after 3 months.

 

No sorry I don’t have any as they’re quite ordinary
and never bought. I’m happy with my one which did 80% in 2016, 10% in 2017, 2% in 2018 and 40% in 2019 and -8% in 2020 to date. In case it wasn’t apparent, I’ve easily more than doubled my money due to what Einstein supposedly says was mankind’s greatest invention (although some dispute if he said it).

It’ll have to fall by a good 50-60% to match the ETF’s performance from these few years but pretty hard as they’re now 30-40% cash

 

Good story. Cheers.

 

Not bad yea? And no I don’t know them nor have invested with them... just know of it.