Pauline Hanson and her potential negative impact on QLD property market

There are no two arguments about this - immigration is a major factor behind price growth in Australian property market. Pauline Hanson mentioned Hurstville being swamped by Asians but property owners in Hurstville are very happy to have Asians as their property prices have almost tripled in last 15 years. In recent Sydney boom, suburbs with Asian, Indian & even Muslim immigration have easily outperformed the blue chip North shore suburbs and there's no slowing down.

With Pauline Hanson back in limelight and with her even more hostile attitude towards immigration (particularly Muslim & Asian), I don't think she's doing any favour to real estate markets in Australia particularly in her native QLD.

What do we all think?

 

I was thinking I would like to buy in QLD because of Pauline!

 

Do you think Pauline will bring an improvement to the prices? She put her own unit in QLD on market recently and might buy in Hurstville next

 

I think its a bit of a reach to say that her views will impact house pricing. Yes it is controversial and would put some people off, but at the end of the day do you really really think that it would stop you from buying a house that A) You want to live in or B) You see yourself making some money from it

 

I really don't know that she will bring an improvement to prices or not. I just like that she speaks for me on the matter of immigration and coal seam gas mining and a few other policies. And because many others in QLD feel the same way (they voted for her) it seems that it aligns with my views very well and I would like to support that by investing there. Soooo that's how I am thinking and I've also bought in Adelaide so what if she bought in Hurstville, she's allowed to be an investor I assume.

 

Irrelevant, One Nation Party reached its zenith in the late 90s at a state level holding numerous seats throughout the Qld electorate.
This was followed by a period of high immigration, especially asian and strong economic growth.

I'm not suggesting anything similar is about to happen, more that fringe minor parties have, in recent decades been part of the political landscape in Qld.

Previously it was PUP and KAP is still there as well.

 

I respect your political reasons. I was merely referring to investment prospects. Lets say if there are lots of people like you who would go and buy in QLD to support Pauline Hanson, that alone should be enough to cause the boom anyways but most serious investors will not bet on the possibility of that happening.

Not sure specially the kind of air time and coverage she's getting, the perception about australian xenophobia may start building soon.

 

From a historical perspective have a look at the 1998 Qld Election. One Nation polled 23%of the vote and won 11 seats. Qld doesn't have an upper house.
Give it a term and it could be KAP's time.
That's how politics works in Qld, the population is more decentralised and so are the political views.

Have a look federally how much more the federal seats in Qld swing each election, both towards the left and right or elsewhere.
That's how I see it anyway.

 

I think it will have some very minor implications. It does not help with the reputation. However Pauline Hanson is as popular elsewhere as she is in QLD, she just happens to come from QLD.
Her views are not helpful (socially and economically) but I don't think the impact will be particularly noticeable on the property market.

 

I don't think it'll make any difference (to the QLD market). There was little interest without her, there will continue to be little interest.

Data Tables: Permanent arrivals (settlers), country of citizenship and states and territories of intended stay, 2014–15 (OESR, Queensland Treasury)

Look at the numbers for Sydney and Melb. It's no mystery, if anything these are the markets that will feel it.

 

I agree. But issues she's talking about aren't QLD specific and media is blowing her importance out of proportion.

To a perspective immigrant someone sitting in India, they don't know how significant/insignificant Pauline Hanson is. Their takeaway from a news story would be that Australians aren't very welcoming to other nationalities.

Example: Between 2005 and 2011, Indian population in Melbourne almost doubled. However, due to a few attacks on students (massively exaggerated in media), new Indian migration to Victoria had a sharp decline and people started choosing Sydney over Melbourne which massively helped Sydney at the expense of Melbourne.

 

Pauline Hanson could dent Asian investments in Australia

"If Ms Hanson insists on working against a multicultural Australia, or adhere to the rejection of a race or a religion, yes, Australia's development and ability to attract investment could be a problem," developer B1 Group chairman and NSW Multicultural champion Anne Bi said.

B1 Group builds apartments in Sydney and partners with the powerful Chinese developer Shimao.

Any dent to Chinese investor sentiment could hurt Australia's pocket, Chinese investment group PIA managing director Justin Wang said.

"Pauline Hanson's One Nation party 'policies' are studiously opposed to foreign ownership, investment and immigration," he said.

Developer Yuhu Group and the UTS Australia-China Relation Institute chairman Huang Xiangmo weighed in on the debate from China.

"Australia's Asian community, including the Chinese community, has made an overwhelmingly positive contribution to this country and it would be unfortunate to see anyone seek to denigrate that contribution with inflammatory language," he said.


Ms Hanson aside, property company VIG which has invested more than $400 million in assets in Australia, has put on hold all deal search due to uncertainty.

 

She is not a positive factor for property, or for business in general.

 

It will make no difference,after all Miss Hanson has been a real estate agent in annerley many years ago in inner southside brisbane her office was right next to the kumon learning centre and my daughter and myself used to see a very well dressed RedHead Lady every time we would go there so this Lady would have a understanding how the real estate sales systems work..

 

My two cents on this.

If anything will inhibit immigration volume growth, it is highly unlikely that Pauline Hanson, her parties, or her policies will enact it.

If unemployment skyrockets in the coming 12 months, I'd argue that this would be the catalyst to adjust-down, any holistic immigration influx numbers/quotas. I know that the Sustainable Australia party went to the last election with a policy to reduce the overall holistic immigration number from the average of the last few years (don't quote me - but somewhere in the vicinity of ~200,000 per year) to the historical average annual rate of the last 10 or 15 years (being ~75,000 people per year). I don't know or trust their methodology but they argued that the historical average rate was more appropriate based on the rising (and pending - due to auto, manufacturing, and mining closures) unemployment rate.

IF this was accurate, I'm inclined to agree. If 75,000 people per year is more sustainable to ensure that more of those who want to work, can more easily find a job, then it makes sense to lower immigration.

Coming out with offensive race/religion/country-specific 'rationale' for reducing population intake is awful. It is not the right way. Economy and amenity/infrastructure should determine immigration volume ebbs and flows, amd this is heavily linked with employment rates.

I worry more about job displacement here in Aus due to automation, globalisation, and machination in the short term, than any other driver. We need to make sure that there are jobs here for those who are already here, firstly, before then seeking overly high immigration volumes elsewhere.

 

It's possible that she may use here influence in the senate to reduce immigration and that in turn would be a negative for house prices. it would be better if this was advocated in a non discriminatory way, ie just an argument about nos rather than where they come from. It might be a good thing for the economy if we wound back immigration/ population growth.

 

How's Lakemba going?
I don't think she'll have any impact. On anything really. No comment on whether that's a good or bad thing, most politicians are pretty useless.

 

I dread to think the deals that will have to be made with crossbenchers to get even slightly contentious legislation through, but I think Pauline will be the last person they will want to be seen making deals with.

I don't think she has much sway on house prices/immigration outside parliament, except maybe lower international student numbers if the foreign media report too much on the shenanigans?

 

I agree she doesn't have much Influence.

Hate mongering does hurt everyone in the end though.

As an investor, the areas from where she gets support does leave a red flag because it raises a question about the demographics of the area - lower income, high unemployment, lower education levels, protectionist & rigid political views, hostility towards change etc. all point to a potentially messy tenant base to draw from.

 

Even if she has some good ideas, she doesn't appear to be articulate enough to present them correctly, and becomes defensive too quickly when questioned. I think she'll mostly be ignored or simply walked over.