VIC Past trends (ripple effect)

Just after some input on past trends using the logic of the ripple idealogy. It's not written in doctrine but I've always look at it as for example it starts in Sydney then Melbourne, and Melbourne usually begins to slow a year after Syndey.

Basically I'm trying to pick spots/cycles next in line along the ripple at this point in the market. Like last cycle Melbourne is following Sydney almost a year later, I remember early days in Melbourne it was the inner blue chip and the east/chinese suburbs that were primarily desired. Then everything over 30km out went boom after the rate cut/migration. Now everything has peaked with Geelong the last area growing. From what I've seen Geelong has been the last to grow every previous cycle.

I guess you could say my question is where to after Geelong? Or is Geelong usually the end of the line for Victoria? Using the logic of people being priced out, along with other area's having their turn and playing catchup. In the past has it usually been the regionals that grow next? Interstate? Or a slowdown everywhere?

It's not a sure way of looking at the property market. But I find it pretty good! If you're aware of what suburbs came next last cycle, you can always have your eye on them this time around and jump in the moment any recovery signs start to appear.

 

Definitely read this as it explains the ripple effect in Sydney/Melbourne in the past and was published 1/08/2018. It should answer your questions. While nothing is guaranteed, the Mornington Peninsula and to a lesser extent Geelong have benefited significantly from Melbourne's recent growth and even the inner suburban decline. However, Bendigo and Ballarat as mentioned in the link are a bit lacklustre.