Panic Setting in Sydney

Hey sash. How do you know this? Not challenging you, genuinely interested.

 

Traditionally, Perth and Sydney run counter-cycle. I don't think Perth was booming in 2003 when Sydney peaked. Sydney was really quiet when Perth peaked in 2007. Perth had a bit of mini boom that ended in 2015. Current Sydney boom started around 2013 and it's still booming whereas Perth is dead. It is reasonable to assume that when Sydney corrects, Perth will pick up again at some point.

 

Cycles....see next comment above from @Perthguy ...that is why....

 

Perth was booming 2001 to 2006/2007

 

But there has to be a reason why a market booms, a trigger ie immigration, jobs etc nothing to do with any other State in Australia

 

So there was some overlap with the Sydney boom that ended in 2003. After Sydney died, Perth really took off until 2007.

 

Kind of. The mining boom drove the Perth boom. When the mining boom ended and many people moved back to Sydney and Melbourne, Perth died and Sydney and Melbourne boomed. There is a link.

 

Sydney boom started in Syd west immigration, professionals from India actually drove this market and boom started here

Melb foreign investors, immigration, areas in East moved due to buyers chasing certain school precincts

Unusual in the past booms started in inner city, not so with recent booms

2013-14 Perth boom driven by FHB market sub 500k

 

Correlation is not causation

 

And also developers chasing development sites in places like City of Belmont, City of Canning and City of Gosnells. Lots of first time developers thinking they could make a quick buck building apartments pushing up development sites to ridiculous levels. Probably because the FHB market was running so hot. I know some got burned. Sad really.

 

I am sure that cashed up mining workers returning home to Sydney and Melbourne had no impact on prices in Sydney and Melbourne

 

comes back to microeconomics101 from 1st yr uni - the good ol supply and demand friends, supply and demand

 

Here is some of what is starting to happen.....

Three reasons Sydneysiders are flocking to Brisbane homes - realestate.com.au

 

Ahh these articles keep resurfacing everytime prices get too hot in Sydney.

Can't remember when there was a torrent of reports of Sydneysiders trekking up north for cheaper housing....think it was 2008?? pre GFC and prior to the floods in Brisbane?

History repeating itself perhaps albeit based upon one news byte.

 

Interesting developments....it could be very worrying for the high priced markets in Sydney and Melbourne:

1. WBC NAB just put up rates in an out of cycle increase...under 30 basis points for investors. Others will definitely follow.
2. The US just put up rates....this will increase funding costs for Australia
3. The state and feds are looking at some sort of tax on foreign buyers.
4. Serviceaibility changes keep coming through

Very interesting times indeed...

 

Didn't have to wait long, did you.

And there have been multiple rises since you joined, it is a trend.

 

The commbank striked before the nab announced as my investor loan will increase on 1st april .12... i wish it was a joke.
The may budget will be interesting i hope they pass the housing for services as my missus is a nurse and we will jump on that

 

Point 4 change about to happen - APRA is about to put in place limits of 30% I/O only lends...that will further tighten the screw in Sydney...the market where people are stretched the most.
If CBA..stops does the 5 year extensions without a serviceability check...it will get even more interesting.....

Panics is definitely setting in....another thing I see at the end of the cycle is everyone becomes a mortgage broker....question is whether people will be able to make a go of it if they jumped in so late...interesting times indeed....

 

Is this official? Or a rumour?

 

Official.....

APRA's moderate approach in home lending crackdown