Panic Setting in Sydney

One would suggest that to get a balanced view you would need to look at the increase in assets.

Still no sourced data only your opinion supporting your statement that

Most baby boomers have not paid off their homes.

 

Meanwhile in Lodnon...

London house prices fall at their fastest rate since the financial crisis

 

Radson - agree... even with strong equity position . . . the question remains... how do you propose they access this to fund their retirement?

Reverse mortgage?

 

There are many ways retirees source funds, some of which are shown on the chart but you seem to have overlooked.

Some of these sources would be,

-Cash
-Dividends
-Superannuation
-Sell down equities
-Rents from properties
-Inheritances
-Income producing hobbies
-Part time work
-Consultancies
-Pensions
-Government Benefits, Health, Transport, etc.
-Family assistance, cash or kind.
-Orderly sale of investment property, proceeds invested to generate income.
-Income from a partner still working.


I'm sure others can think of more alternatives.

 

Yep, but a number are illegal, such as embezzlement, Ponzi schemes and questionable business "investments"...

 

What about double dipping into the old age pension once super is spent?

 

Sorry RT, forgot about this, and also the Click income from the Influencers that get free cars and intangible income from large companies' marketing budgets that allow numerous perks for taking selfies at various times and in various locations, so their "followers" hoover up all their outstanding stock in a mad rampage of "have to have it" consumerism.

What a great and sustainable business model.

Cant wait until the IPO.

 

I'm not seeing any panic yet around me in Glebe.

More ppl are saying, ok prices might be a bit lower but they were really silly 12 months ago so fair enough.

 

I'm living in Glebe at the moment and I'm not seeing too many investors lining up for the million dollar apartments at the start of Cowper street in genuine commission home territory. I am expecting some 20-30% losses from anyone who has invested there, the first building 80% empty.

 

Don't worry it has some of the most livable beaches in the solar system, I'm sure once the next delivery of baby formula arrives it's median will breach 1.4mil

 

Thanks I will have a look... 20% loss would be hard to swallow

 

My parents are selling their 4bdr hhome in seven hills at the moment and im a personal friend of the real estate selling it for them. This is the summary of that pocket of Sydney at the moment based on the real estates comments and my parents experience.
The market demand dropped off a cliff about 3-4 months ago.
Any property that's new and shiny on a nice street will still sell for a good price. If u have a McMansion on a nice street, people will still pay top price.
Any property that has any downside (main road, needs Reno, poor location etc) is struggling to get offers and they are selling with a solid 5% discount or more.
Auctions have become a poor choice unless you have an outstanding property that owner occupiers will bid for.
Buyers are starting to low ball offers at 50-100k under asking price instead of sensible low ball offers.

Based on what I've seen, the urgency and FOMO seems to have definitely dropped out of the market in the blacktown council region.

 

Read what you just wrote, maybe a few times.

Too me, that is exactly the indicator that tells me it has turned and will pull back. See, if people keep saying this for a few years......

 

Yep, same in the SW if you have a run of the mill place.

 

Pretty similar story at Cherrybrook (2126) which I am watching. Auction turnout low (has been 2-3 bidders for last 3-4 months) and long drawn out bidding process and bidding quickly changes from 10k increments to 1k. Houses which were listed on the market at beginning of year for 3 months and taken off the listing are now back on the market but not much luck.

Vendors upbeat. REA's trying to keep a strong face and you can see they are crossing their fingers behind their backs! Buyers are just walking down the road and saying no to REA's pitch in want of a better deal. Who wants to spend $1.5Mn on 4-bedder and another 150k to make it liveable?

Many senior/ long term gurus on this forum are calling this slowdown a non-event (read, Bulls). I am watching global trends in economic activity and politics it is showing signs of minor cracks (read, I am bearish). Though I would like to see market conditions to change drastically to help me buy in Sydney I will likely be waiting for another 1-2 years. Nothing is changing in the short term. Just sideway movement. It's like watching paint dry so have patience

 

What did the global trends tell you about sydney during the gfc?

The long termers have such low buyin prices its not a big deal. Theyve refinanced and moved on.

 

I think you misunderstand the sentiment. Many experienced investors are calling it for what it is.....part of the cycle. It's a non-event in the fact that it is normal. Property usually rises until there is a pull back, it might stagnate for a number of years, or there might be a drop. At this part of the cycle, many of the experienced Sydney buyers have stopped buying, may have already sold, if that was the intention, and are focused on other areas.

 

Theres a difference between investors looking to ride the different cycles to the owner occupier looking for their ppor.

 

If that is what it is, I stand corrected

 

Just sold one in good ol Sydney...........total land and build $840k....sold 1.38m........no crash...