Panic Setting in Sydney

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by sash, 13th Mar, 2017.

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  1. turk

    turk Well-Known Member

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    I've seen that chart before and I will still stand by my guarantee that we wont see a confirmed figure and source that Most baby boomers have not paid off their homes,

    45% is not a most.
     
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  2. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Keep arguing with yourself if you want Turk... The important thing is the trend here from census data.

    Currently at 45% and we are 7 years into 20 year retirement cycle for baby boomers. Should be over 45% shortly...

    Therefore . . . more Pressure to get rid off Sydney property for indebted baby boomers.

    History shows such a demographic transition is rarely done in an orderly fashion, despite the repeated, almost weekly assurances of the treasurer ScoMo.. "It's all good, guys!" "No crash for sure" :)
     
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  3. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Yep also we have seen a big jump in reverse mortgage market too. Ppl were encouraged to put money into super instead of paying down mortgage. Problem with this is that returns collapsed so when they go to pay off mortgage with super, they actually need to sell the Sydney family home to pay off the mortgage...
     
  4. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Hey datto, how stong is mt druitt. You seeing big increases or is it slowing at the moment?
     
  5. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    It's still going strong. :D
     
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  6. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Barny, with regard to houses they're holding their ground (no pun intended). No big increases from what I can see. Prices range from just under $500K in the scummiest suburb to about $1m in Mt Druitt proper (pun intended).
     
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  7. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I'm wondering how many baby boomers have retired with debt because they value the debt?

    Hubby retired at 50 (eight years ago now) and we could pay our debt down or pay it off, but we have a development to do, and we want the loan for when we want to draw it back up again.

    But anybody looking at us would lump us into the basket of "retirees who have debt" without understanding our situation.

    So, I'm wondering how many people are like us, and are keeping debt for reasons other than not being able to pay it off?
     
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  8. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    The demand is the telling thing, not just if sales are holding up, or using data which means your 3-6 months behind.

    I think most places are exposed, but the cheaper places have a lot less $ figure to lose, if it does pull back.
     
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  9. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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  10. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep....that is one of the issues which is concerning governments also.. they were expecting baby boomers to largely have paid off their homes heading into retirement...the gubbermint is worried this is going to drain the public purse further....if the trend continues..
     
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  11. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    I suspect your relatively sophisticated strategy would make you an outlier.
     
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  12. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    Many retirees could have debt when they retiree but are planning to pay it off with a redundancy package or the like. I work in gov't and know several people who paid off what was left of their mortgage this way. Lots of people of retirement age just hold on waiting for the packages to be offered
     
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  13. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Would redundancies be rising though?

    On the opposite side - many govt employees have and are still retiring under very very generous pension schemes...

    Last few years of these though so trend is down...
     
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  14. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Nothing changes a market dynamic like some definite, validated price action DOWN... it really prompts action...

    Spoke to a Sydney Eastern suburbs RE agent yesterday who is a friend... they can't put listings onto the market quick enough. So much urgency from sellers...
     
  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep....that is the issue...everyone is acting a herd of Wilde Beasts...if that does not change the supply will be high ...and more choice...guess what happens then? Prices go down...then newspapers scream blue murder...guess what panic sets in......ah....just the end of another Sydney cycle.....
     
  16. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    Same situation. We've got lots of offsets that are full up. We just sold another as well, and transferred the debt to one with a heap of equity, as we want to keep the debt there to go shopping when property is back on the nose again. Having lots of debt (but even more equity) gives you options.

    On the other hand, the article may be lumping all retirees with IPs into the same basket as those with mortgages over their PPOR. You don't really need to pay down your IP mortgages if you've got the cashflow through rents & super.
     
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  17. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    indeed it will be the required sale of PPOR's that cause the pace of change to increase...

    By the way - property is plenty on the nose in Perth and Darwin!!
     
  18. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    I never said anything about requiring to sell PPOR's. There's plenty of BBs that own IP's. Some of them still have mortgages over them when they retire. The article that you referring to won't be able to differentiate between a mortgage for a PPOR or an IP. It's all debt! I could quite easily be one of those statistics.....but I'm not going to be panic selling ANYTHING!
     
  19. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Yes regardless of whether, you as an individual will be Panic selling or not, it's more about the increase in debt that will change how many many ppl enter retirement!

    This is from the census data largely, if anyone has any data to show that contrasts this, happy to review it :)
     
  20. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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