Panic Setting in Sydney

There could be opportunities down the track, but not yet.

 

I expect some dramatic falls from July....

 

Yep...it will start from the Southy West......and North West and filter inwards....

 

Actually i think the downside is less out south west except for some areas around Mt Druitt which was a little over spruiked.

What I do think will happen next few years is rent increases (some big) while prices plateau.

 

@sash - what are you referring to as north west? Castle hill / Baulkham hills or further out (schoefields, the ponds etc).
I can see the further out areas dropping but I really can't see castle hill / Baulkham hills being affected. The access to the city via the m2 is good (both bus and car) and the norwest business district is massive and holds very high employment numbers. Add the new train station in at castle hill and I cannot see anything beyond a minor correction as you would expect after any boom.

 

Nothing in NW is immune.....people have borrowed a lot...to get in....

 

Record low interest rates, record high property prices. When could you find a better time to buy?

 

In Brissie/Outer Melb/Geelong yes.....Inner Melb and Sydney no way....

 

Just because Sydney is generally over valued doesn't mean you can't find individual properties at a good price.

I've noticed plenty of people buying a property to upgrade, they then need to sell the previous property as a matter of urgency... so they have taken some huge discounts to what they were asking... $755-765... 8 weeks later sold $685k.

With investors out of the market due to APRA heat, that means less competition to get something at a good price IMO.

 

Not really on topic but I just want to say this comment made my day "what could possibly go wrong?"

 

Who the hell would pay $1.5 million to live Campbelltown?

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...n/news-story/79cee6d8e28522555b2cee36914f2097

 

Damn! Expensive, but look at the size and calibre of the thing. Take a look at what you can get for $1.2m out in Wentworthville.. a rundown old house on a bit of land that is not in a very desirable area (subjective of course). I think I'd almost take the $1.5m C-town house over some of the $1.5m Western Sydney stuff..

 

With Wentworthville, the area has changed dramatically. Buyers want to be with their community (Indians) and I'm sure many who buy free standing houses have an eye to future development (no matter how high density it is compared to before, it's still more livable than Chennai or Delhi, etc).

 

I agree with you. Hope for the best but expect the worst. The only thing we need is a catalyst.

 

This article claims the market is cooling but maybe the flipper just made questionable design choices? Doesn't look like a million dollar kitchen to me:

Flipped Surry Hills terrace passes in at auction after full renovation

The numbers do seem to support the market cooling theory though.

Sydney auction market has slowest month since January, with May clearance rates consistently below 80pc

 

I saw this one too Perthguy, I was suprised, two beddy reno'd in Surry Hills passed in at $1.35m? It's a bit of coin but far out seems like a steal the way the market is going (Or not going, if you know what I mean ). Possibility of lower quality marketing though, it's hard to see what the background behind the auction was. I won't be convinced until I really see the clearance rates dropping, but I think there are multiple sources showing Sydney is peaking.

 

sounds like more signs of trouble coming,....

 

yep....the fact someone is listing a house for 1.5m in campbelltown says it all

 

$3m unit sold in Norwest/Baulkham Hills off the plan.

Baulkham Hills unit sells for more than $3 million - realestate.com.au

 

I'll be frank is it not expected that the tightening of lending/APRA rules and just the general consensus of borrowing getting harder will no doubt have an impact on the Syd/Melb housing. This is actually a good thing and nothing to be afraid of.

All these measures will indeed cause auction clearance rates to reduce, home prices to slow growth or plateau because of tighter lending. Your effectively cutting off the hand that feeds you in some sense.

I think its a good thing to slow growth to a more sustainable level and that's coming from someone who has 7 investments in Sydney alone. I would rather a slow down now and another surge in 5 or so years time.

I think most of us big investors have made enough to withstand a 10% - 20% fall in prices without really affecting anything (Which wont happen but as a theoretical example) - even if prices dropped 50% we probably still made money recently. LOL

All these new restrictions we should be expecting exactly what is happening which is a cooling of the market - not sure why people are surprised. Doesn't mean its dropping just cooling and getting to a more acceptable rate of increase. IMHO a good thing.