Owners rushing to sell

herd is running for the exit now, don't get trampled on the way out...

 

Gotta love consumer sentiment and how quickly things change. Makes or breaks markets.

 

I'm surprised by how fast it seems to be shifting... but I still think any correction will be concentrated in new development areas and fringe suburbs, at least long term.

 

Fringe/affordable suburbs are usually the most consistent performers.

 

What are you seeing? More stock coming onto market where?

I know outer suburbs still strong. However this is the time where you don't want to be caught with building, land and house packages if market sentiment is changing?

 

It does not surprise me whatsoever, seen this many times. Interesting how the psyche changes from wanting/needing to buy to wanting out.

However, its perhaps still not obvious to the average punter yet??

 

Yep but unless you never intend to buy again....whats the point MTR?

You just lose money in your entry/exit and unless there is a 10%+plus market crash you are actually starting out worse off when you buy the next property than you are today.

Don't get me wrong I'm not talking about people renovating to gain capital improvements etc but just selling because prices might come down slightly for the next 2-5 years.......hardly worth the effort when prices will go back up again eventually.

 

are you sure? I've been checking domain auction numbers the last few months and doesn't seem like a lot of properties (at least in Sydney anyway) for sale.

 

Definitely seeing a big difference in what Domain and their 'chief economist' Dr Andrew Wilson is reporting and actual market conditions.

Domain is completely unreliable and starting to smack of pure desperation. They're incentivised to spurik and sell ads.

 

Agreed that Domain is probably unreliable.
Agreed the market will eventually tank.
But there's a lot of wishful thinking going on here. People should be using disclaimers e.g.
'I sold all my negatively geared houses at a loss because my partner's business went down and we could no longer afford them'
or
'Due to local conditioning, I can't wait for Sydney go down - then I might be able to buy them out and beat them at their own game'
or
'I have more opinions and posts than dollars or days lived but life just wouldn't be the same without PC - let's ruffle some feathers.'

 

I'm sure there are lots on here that have missed out on buying in Sydney (and would love to). Some could sneak into the Mt Druitts and Campbelltowns of this world in the next few years but it's quite possible that the window has closed forever for the coveted suburbs.

 

The Domain Numbers for Darwin were way, way out. They were reporting a median of 600k+ for houses but even REINT (The spruiker for the spruikers) said on record it was more like 500k and they couldn't understand where Domain were getting their numbers from...

I'd approach Domain's numbers with caution...

 

Personally, I wouldn't touch anywhere in Sydney with a barge pole (and couldn't anyway!). Nevertheless, the oft-derided outskirts continue to tick along in this climate. What 'should' happen and what we all think is going to happen, and thought would've happened a few years ago, simply hasn't yet happened!

 

How's Cherrybrook doing this month? Anyone following please?

 

Good point raised here and I am with you Dean! It's amazing how people changed their view 360 degree just in matter of months and obviously that's because they have sold their IPs And I bet since then these people kind of trying to justify their action and think "have I made the right decision" and everytime they see "small sign" of downturn they will go all over on these forum

I am no expert in the investment game and I don't really care what the price movement will be in 1-5 years but I have vision what the property price and rent increase will be in 20 years.

Erorxxx

 

I'm on the fence with the sell or hold decision. I agree with what Dean says too, but if generalising, when you look at what happened with the Gold Coast / Brisbane from 2009 - 2015, and later for some investors, if you didn't sell in 2009 you'd have had 6 years of negative or sideways growth and probably the same for yield too. Imho it's a long time to have money sitting around doing nothing for you, hoping to then achieve gains sometime down the track.

Though would most people agree that it's unlikely that Sydney would suffer long periods like southern QLD? Gold Coast has a history of being a fairly volatile market.

 

From a long term (10+ years) perspective, surely buying in Sydney (selective - e.g. 3+ bedder, freestanding/townhouse/low-rise, blue chip, close to transport, <10km from CBD) for a PPOR isn't the worst decision one can make? What do you guys think? There is tremendous wealth in Sydney.

 

Hi all, a lot of Sydney didn't do anything much price wise between 2003/4 and 2008/9 ... Some areas (I'm thinking Western Sydney) even dropped up to about 25% and then eventually recovered. It's not impossible that it could happen again, and if it's going to happen, I'd expect there is a fair probability it would happen in the near future because of the huge boom that saw prices doubling and better between 2013 to now.

If you do buy, I'd make sure the location has access to transport (roads and rail). And understand growth might be low or even negative for a couple of years.

 

I would agree with this.
Long term, Sydney will be great.
When it's cycle turns (no one knows when, but it's likely it will be sooner rather than later) I would agree there will be a period if flatness or even smaller falls. I wouldn't be surprised to see flatness just like in previous Sydney cycles.
The issue for a lot of sydneysifers during that time will be the opportunity cost of other places going up whilst their (expensive purchases in Sydney) are going nowhere.
This will test a lot of Sydney spiders who paid premiums in the last 3 years...
I would also agree that if you do buy there now, the accessibility (which is really location) is going to be very important to appeal to as many as possible also ensure liquidity for an illiquid asset class.

 

Not a fan of ferries? Makes sense - I guess what provides some level of comfort is that there is no rent to be paid and better stability for non financial reasons.

I've personally offloaded most of my Western/South Western Sydney portfolio - Westmead, Homebust West and Liverpool. While it was mainly for personal reasons (getting married, looking to start family, stability etc.) it was also to improve the quality of the portfolio by freeing up needed capital to buy a inner city PPoR in the next 6-9 months. My rationale was that the blue chip areas I am looking to buy are likely to have more support in any potential market pullback and I can always leverage against the blue chip property to buy in other areas.