NSW Orange NSW and Central West

Hi All,

This is not a spruiker friendly thread, but wanted to say that there is so much happening in Orange, it is literally growing before your eyes.

There is as many cranes here as what I saw in SW Syd, well, not really, but 4 cranes, when I seen none for last 40 yrs is, well, something to pay attention too...

Anyways, apart from Syd and Mel, I would say the whole central West NSW, or Mid West, from mountains too Orange have done well, better than many caps or coastal regional areas.

Do not buy granny flat or small blocks, these places do best with a normal house on at least 500 to quarter acre, no one wants the cramped lifestyle outside Syd.

 

We’ve been onto Orange for 4+ years. We agree it’s a fantastic town! But you are posting old news . And you are still thinking about the demographics all wrong .

I’ve talked in other regional threads about how Granny flats have been spectacularly successful for my clients and I in Orange , when built in addition to 4 bedders on 700-800m2 lots ... the rental demand for them is incredible. Better than we anticipated , to be fair. So good that it’s been surprising , in fact. They rent faster than the houses and whenever there’s a vacancy they are snapped up immediately ... and the rents have grown 20% in 2 years ....so I don’t know why you’d be suggesting they hold no appeal. The evidence overwhelmingly suggests otherwise

To further the point about demand for smaller accomodation in Orange , we delivered 16 x 1 bed villas between 2 sites in Nile Street and Frost Street @ 4 years ago and again ... demand has been excellent for the entire time.

So I think it’s inaccurate to suggest that the only viable or appealing purchase in Orange is a standard house on a standard lot , and that other dwellings aren’t suited. The demographics are more sophisticated than that . Gone are the days of houses on large lots being the only useful product
And with each passing year the demographics move more away from that .

We have just moved our attention to Goulburn - it’s shaping up exactly like Orange was 4 years ago . Smaller population but located much closer to Sydney and Canberra and now that they have resolved their water issues , development is just starting to be allowed by council again . Just like Orange , changing demographics are being felt there . For example , they have a lot of Canberra downsizers starting to buy - and a lot of southern highlanders as well - and ever increasing number of Sydneysiders priced out of Sydney and Wollongong who are willing to commute . It’s only 75 minutes to the industrial estates around Campbelltown for example - many South Western Sydney residents spend longer than that on the M5 each way , daily. ... AND get to own smaller homes with much bigger mortgages than what they can have in Goulburn . Goulburn locals expect that trend of Sydneysiders moving in that direction to explode after the second airport precinct is complete . Dont know whether that will happen or not, but hat I do know is that vacancy rates have already plunged and I see no reason why dual occs with granny flats arent going to prove to be just as useful - and appealing - there , as they have proven to be in Orange and in other regionals around NSW....especially when we deliver them for less than what many local builders deliver a 4 bedder for.

People need to realise that the better regionals are now seeing significant demographic shifts which challenge traditional expectations of what is needed, accommodation wise . This trend isn’t going to stop as the wealthiest generation in history retires in the next 10-15 years . It's just how the demographics are. There's no changing it. It's happening. Good old plain 4 bedders on big lots are simply not going to be the only viable option is these locations any longer . They are still a perfectly suitable product - they just arent the only suitable product any more . Arguing otherwise is outdated thinking.

 

I wont bother debating, spruikers not welcome IMO, but, I have my opinion, and your clients may find themselves in a pickle when times become more normalised...

PS you can rent anything when you have no barriers......esp in a market with rental demand far above normal.

 

We are running at over 10K CF+. We could reduce rents by $200 per week and still be CF Neutral. You seem to believe tenants who live in regional towns don't have any appetite for granny flats, and that demand will disappear when things become "normalised"

But the argument is simply not supported by the evidence. Besides the fact we have first hand experience with the construction of Granny Flats in Orange and the leasing of Granny Flats in Orange that you do not, your argument essentially implies people only wouldn't rent them in a more "normalised" market. What does "normalised market" even mean? After all , there isn't a 0% vacancy rate in Orange where renters cant find anything else... Yes we have strong demand - but we don't exactly have people camping out by the hundreds for days to get them, or paying 6 -12 months in advance to get them.... so your point is lost on me. What is so abnormal about the current rental market that granny flats are ( by your implied definition at least) only a desperate fallback position for tenants that they'll abandon the minute they have other options available ? Please do tell us....


The truth is that Granny Flats are in demand because they are an appealing product. There can be many reasons. Privacy. Shift workers who don't want to be disturbed by housemates. The disabled who need a form of independent living. Elderly couples for whom a large home is too much to manage. Not everyone wants to rent a shared room in a 3,4 or 5 bedroom house with a 700 or 800M2 yard, and the associated yard work. Previously, many people just have not had the option in Orange- or many other regionals - because no one was delivering the product. And it wasn't being delivered because people like you say it isn't wanted or needed. You arent the only one. From day one, local agents told us no one would rent them. Local builders sneered. Well, we thought otherwise, went out and provided it, and voila! We were right- and they ( and you) were wrong. And they ( and you ) can go on trying to deny that the same demographics affecting every town and city in this land don't affect regionals, but you'll all continue to be wrong. These types of dwellings will become more normal, not less normal.


if you are suggesting the rents could come off a little because supply increases- thats a different thing entirely. Say that, if thats what you mean. Dont say people dont want granny flats. because the evidence is overwhelmingly the opposite . But remember, we run 10K positive, so a drop in rents - unless it's catastrophic- isnt going to make a dent, really.... That's the point of cash cows. They provide redundancies against change that other types of single income dwellings cannot. And they are proven winners in Orange, even though you tell people they are not.




#outdatedthinking

 

It is an old trick...write an essay and take over anywhere there is something to peddle too the audience....

Seen it too many times too find it entertaining......

Hurry and buy my product.......sigh......

 

Absolutely right. It was over before it began.... One turned up with an outdated opinion, not supported by facts The other turned up with facts supported by evidence which debunked the outdated opinion

I note that you have been unable to respond to the facts supported by evidence, and have decided to play the man instead. Also an old trick...seen many times...

Whether it's my product or someone else's - Granny Flats have a place in regionals, because populations are ageing ,demographics are changing, and the type of accommodation people want is changing. You are arguing against something that's already succeeded. It's not a question of IF granny flats work in Orange. They already DO.

You were wrong yesterday. You are wrong today. You'll be wrong tomorrow.

 

I am not responding to you or your sales product....do you grok that ?

Thread is meant to be about the town, not your op for a sales spiel.

 

I was reading not long ago about how the new building that will have private rooms etc has been doubled in size since the initial approval.

 

$50m private hospital and 500 jobs planned for Orange

I think it is 7 floors now also....odd seeing such a high building just out of town, but as said, there is now many multi storey buildings going up.....

 

do you grok that ?
'

And as I said - I think it's a fantastic town. Been onto it for years ... and as I also said... you are thinking about the demographics all wrong . You don't appear to be able to see that things have changed. Big houses on big lots are not the ONLY game in town anymore for prospective tenants. They are still in high demand, but the rental market has proven there is appetite for other ( smaller) accommodation options. And for the investors who buy the properties that are made available to the rental market - the additional yield /income produced by dual occs is also really helpful. So on both sides of the coin your thinking isnt keeping up with the times

 

Stop pushing your product then, and point out the things that matter too people who want or do live there, instead of your shameless, corrupt product promotion.....

If I were asked, I would avoid anything you do just because you push it so much, alas, that is not what the tread is about, but please go away if you must derail things that are only about your product, the world does not need you or more like you......

 

A downside may be, no river (i.e..no floods either mostly) so water is a problem....although there is a multi prong approach to that problem, not the sales/spruiker problem....which seems to be a bugbear of every single market and place.....

 

The funny thing is. When someone continually spruiks, especially with overly long messages, people just tend to see a name and scroll on past to the next poster. Read it all before. Groundhog Day.

 

lol...yeah I know, but may be lost on such offenders....

I do not mind the intelligent counter argument, but, not spruiker friendly being spelt out, and wanting to be more about the towns offering, but being taken over by one of the most shameless pushers of own product on PC.....well, what you have, is something you cannot shake but would lock your daughters, family, friends etc away from...but I expect as much.

Shortly there will be a list of reasons why you should buy some old cow, before it dies or gets mastitis from over use.... but nothing on the town or it's real merits, just buy my shizz, ok ? And I can get you the money, ok ?

So, maybe you scrolled past, do you think I read the self serving BS......certainly not all of it...ha ha....of course I must reveal I have an interest in the Central West, as I do in Australia

 

On to the town and data then....

It seems Orange has just pipped over 2% vacancy after 2 yrs of sub 2 rentals. Not saying there is any need to panic but bit of a spike in gross vacancies in Aug.

 

Data is one thing, being on the ground is another....

I can say, even though rental demand has been good for a while now, it can take a long time if you screen properly and want good rent.....not as easy rent wise as made out if you want top bucks with no probs. Of course, I am just an idiot, so better listen too stories by others on how easy it is

Lot of people will rent your new or renewed dog box atm, cause it is hard to build quickly, also hard to live in a motel if your waiting for your new home to be done

 

That’s your prerogative. But anyone looking for your advice would best get a 2nd opinion as you have made it pretty clear that you are years behind with your understanding of things. Evidently you are stuck in the past , pining for the 1950's, single homes on large blocks with hills hoists in every yard and FJ Holdens in every driveway. Your views havent matured with the times... you are being left behind. You have stated repeatedly that granny flats ( or dog boxes as you now call them ) have no place and nobody should buy them , because people don’t want a "congested life"and won’t rent them . But when the evidence is presented to demonstrate that people do actually rent them - for years now they have been renting them - your only response is to get personal. Even the information you posted about the hospital earlier in the thread was from May 2017. Almost 2.5 years old! It's almost finished now.

What you ought to be considering instead is whether there actually might be a place for something other than 4 bedders on large blocks , in this day and age. Whether demographics have changed sufficiently that accommodation needs have also changed Heaven forbid Orange actually has some single people or young couples or elderly people who might want something other than a large house on a large block.

So while I appreciate all of your kind words about me ....

 

Growth in orange was stagnant for a very long time before jumping over the last couple of years.

The closure of the Electrolux factory didn't seem to have much of an impact. This has been balanced out by the expansion of the cadia gold mine.

Orange is a destination for tree changers. My parents retired there from Sydney last year because of the affordable housing and climate. It is also drivable distance from Sydney.

The lack of water would be an issue. Currently on level 5 water restrictions. If drought continues it must put pressure on the capacity at the mine.

 

If I were too guess, the mine would get water first

Those restrictions just came in, but prob more to do with cost of getting useable water over not having any options at all.

2 yeas ago or bit more now, it was so wet you were hoping for a dry spell.

And who will forget the panic in Syd that brought about an unused desal plant.

 

I agree, and have said this many times on many threads over the past few years . But it is also a destination for young families priced out of Sydney - there are lots of young children playing in the front yards and driveways of the new estates on the Northern side of Orange whenever you drive through....and school enrollments surged about 3 years back. I have also pointed out it is a wealthy town. Much wealthier than many realise. Lots of big farming money there - in fact all of the largest agricultural banks have been HQ'd there for decades. I have also pointed out that Orange is the single most stable real estate market in the country over the past 20 years . It has had only ONE year of negative price growth in 20 years. No other location can say the same. I have also pointed out that a 2nd mine called McPhillamy's is opening at Blayney, and will expand rapidly to offer lots of new high paying mining jobs. It is owned by Regis Resources. I have also pointed out that it has a public and a private hospital. and that the private hospital was being expanded to make Orange the 2nd largest medical precinct in NSW after Westmead, meaning lots of medical jobs. I have also pointed out that Orange is home to one of the country's largest dental schools @ CSU, bringing lots of students to town . I have also pointed out that the campus will start offering a medical degree from 2021, further increasing Orange's reputation as a medical hub and bring more students to town. I have also pointed out that DPI is building a large new HQ building there at the site of the old Orange Hospital , meaning lots of Government jobs. . I have also pointed out Orange has a growing foodie industry and a growing wine industry, driving an ever growing tourism industry. It obviously also has a large agricultural industry surrounding it already.

Medical. Mining. Government. Tourism. Agriculture. Wineries. Education. Tree Changers. Young Families.

This is no one trick pony. It's a really good town. Doing very well for itself. And the fact is - because of the medical, mining and Govt jobs, the demographics are changing.... which is why we identified a need for alternative dwelling types 4 years back and started providing it . We got active there 4 years ago, not 4 minutes ago ....