Opportunity is knocking!

I'm not a fan of dollar cost averaging, but when buying low for a long term hold, it's probably a safer option than chucking it all in as a big lump. Mitigates a bit of system risk.

Psychologically, a loss feels worse than an equal win, so you're likely to be more upset about buying too high and having it drop, than buying a bit high on the way back up.

 

Seems this is a strategy that the cruise companies are following among other strategies.

 

For those that were thinking about using NAB's equity builder product, it sounds as though they're no longer accepting new applications as a result of Coronavirus. Not sure if that's because they are having staffing issues, or if it's simply because there are a lot of people who are wanting to get in on cheap shares! The info was posted on r/AusFinance. I understand that many here would prefer to free up equity in a property to use instead, but the EB seems to be a popular and commonly talked about product for leveraging into the market.

 

Sitting and waiting.

We sold out the last of the CBA shares in my Super fund mid Feb. Was cranky that I missed the top as ran out to $90.

I am hoping that CBA will bottom around the $30 mark. My feeling is that if it gets under $52 then the next level is $41 and then maybe $27.

I will start buying when under $30.
I would love some input from @Alex Straker

 

This is frightening reading ... panic is everywhere. I think with this sort of sentiment about, its way too early to be buying ....

If there is no coordinated action from global policymakers to combat the threat posed by the coronavirus outbreak, Macquarie Research believes the current market meltdown will get a whole lot worse.

“The uncertainty of economic impact of COVID-19, collapse in the oil price and rising geopolitical pressures are aggravated by computerised trading and more than a decade of extreme monetary policies, which left investors marooned in overcrowded positions,” the investment bank said.

“Unless this ‘death spiral’ is arrested, all assets - except extreme safety - will collapse, capital will freeze, and liquidity disappear. At that point our entire asset-based financialized world will reset."

“Funds will collapse, pensions won’t get paid and we will need to recognise that decades of growth were not sustainable, ultimately converging money supply and GDP, and in the process wiping out years of rising standards of living."

“If there is no coordinated action from global policymakers, this will be the likely outcome.”

Fortunately, the team believes there’s still a chance to avoid such a scenario.

“We believe that rate cuts by themselves are not sufficient. Rather central banks need to embark on fully fledged quantitative easing, with no limitations on size or asset classes,” it said.

“Monetary levers must be fused with fiscal policies, with an aggressive spending and bail-out of the more vulnerable segments.”

My views is that this will pass.... it will be panic stations in the wider public for several more weeks because people are scared, but it will settle down and pass.... everyone just needs to calm the farm and wash their hands regularly and properly and stay at home as much as possible ....

 

I assume some of those reading into this thread may feel a little bit sick today. Hopefully not, but these type of losses are hard to absorb for many. Super balances will have just taken a mega beating (and we could still early on in the re-adjustment).

@euro73, spot on.

This needs to change. Pronto. At a global level, we may have forgotten it given recent years geopolitics, but co-ordination is very important in times of crisis.

Central banks are doing heavy lifting together, but fiscal responses & also IMO health responses may need to be co-ordinated to ensure chances of re-occurance don't occur (have zero expertise on that though). First priority is containing the health crisis of course. At my time at macro-group @ Treasury, i wrote a paper on how regulators responded to crisis like conditions (and some structural reforms required to maintain the integrity of macro-coordination for future crisis like today). Overall most view global responses to GFC type crisis as extremely important to backstopping market panic. G20 responses, massive stimulus co-ordinated at a worldwide scale, helped tame markets. ScoMo & Frydenberg seem to be calling for another emergency meeting to come up with an appropriate plan again.Lessons learned from those experiences are coming out...communication from central banks letting markets know that they'll do whatever it takes to inject necessary liquidity.

Nonetheless, we're in a similar situation now. Markets are in full blown panic mode. In conditions like this, it's a matter of time before funding dries up and the cost to borrowers/consumers is massive (Australian & worldwide). There's feasible scenarios as outlined earlier in this thread that this is going to get a lot worse. A full blown funding crisis isn't a far-fetched possibility now...the impact that this will have on equities, property, employment, etc isn't nearly priced in IMO (particularly with property). It's the time for regulators to come in, with massive intervention to ensure this doesn't happen. Monetary stimulus may be a bit more limited (not sure) given current rate settings and the current spreads spike in bond/rmbs markets.

Also, IMO now isn't the time for retail people who have no idea or expertise about how any of this works to be quoting warren buffet assuming now is a great time to jump in. Yes there's definitely plenty of opportunities to do very well now, but the average 'mum & dad' new to the stockmarket will probably end up more burned than ahead. There's so much that they don't know, realise or can even comprehend that is entirely plausible today.

 

The butterflies in the stomach got bigger today.

but feeling hungrier.

 

@euro73 @Redom Panic IS everywhere. Hubby is a school principal - parents are literally fighting at school - punch-ups. People are fighting at the supermarket...kind of embarrassed to be human right now.

I really fear for the vulnerable in our communities who can't easily access the shops...or who risk getting punched in the face if they do.

 

Yes, I already said that

People are behaving like first class @holes right now... everywhere you look people are behaving as though this virus will turn everyone into the walking dead. Its all far too apocalyptic, when the reality is that mortality rates are very modest. The bahaviour isnt proportionate to the problem. Whats truly frightening is that we barely have a few hundred sick thus far.... the panic is going to get far worse as more are diagnosed and as casuals and part timers and contractors start being laid off, and once the lock down gets more serious and cabin fever sets in... hence my comments about it being far too early to buy

#calmthefarm

 

Woolies is opening earlier only for seniors and those with disabilities.

Here they line up and endure punch ups for toilet paper. In the US they are lining up waiting for guns/arms shops to open

WRT your 16 year old daughter from another thread, they are still lining up for essentials here. A line of 40 or so teens a few days ago here at Pacific Fair waiting at Sneaker Boy for who knows what new release of thousand dollar sneakers. Miss Player aged 19 was with me and she beat me to the laughing and eye rolls.

The bind moggles.

 

Well I bought some VAS today for $65. You gotta be in it to win it. Obviously looking long term 10yrs plus

 

Those damn guns

 

My daughter has just graduated as teacher, now they are going to close the school this time will pass

 

[QUOTE="euro73, post: 798608, member: 241"

Its all far too apocalyptic, when the reality is that mortality rates are very modest. Whats truly frightening is that we barely have a few hundred sick thus far.... the panic is going to get far worse as more are diagnosed and as casuals and part timers and contractors start being laid off, and once the lock down gets more serious and cabin fever sets in... hence my comments about it being far too early to buy[/QUOTE]

Totally agree that it is to early to buy. This is why in my post I indicated the levels at which I would be looking to buy rather than this silly idea of dca downwards - what a ridiculous idea.

I don't agree with your comment where you say "Whats truly frightening is that we barely have a few hundred sick thus far.." This is diaganosed rather than the hidden infected who show no sign of the virus but are none the less carriers.

You may be interested in reading this article which illustrates how the number of cases can magnitudes more that the official numbers.

Whats truly frightening is that we barely have a few hundred sick thus far..

 

I can absolutely understand why people close to retirement would be upset with the recent market volatility, watching a lifetime of savings evaporate in front of their eyes.

People are panicking, with young employees talking about switching their super to cash now, locking in any losses to date.

Personally, from a selfish point of view, I am loving the carnage. My super unit prices have come right down. At the 12 month high, every $1,000 I contributed to super bought 282 units. Currently, $1,000 buys me 316 units. It's a big difference.

As a result I have put in place over a $1,000 per pay salary sacrifice into super until prices stabilise. I've actually had this in place since November last year and it's really boosting my super unit balance. I can't access super for 20 years, so the dollar balance doesn't affect me much. I see this as a great time to boost my future super value.

And before people get excited, I have sought personal advice on how much I can contribute to super without breaching my contribution cap and I am following that advice very carefully.

 

I wonder if the fear from a generation growing up watching end of the world, outbreak, alien invasion and other apocalyptic type movies is driving any of this BS behaviour

 

Seems my post was well and truly screwed up. More to the point I don't seem to be able to edit it.

The link to the article is

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

 

Hey @Redom, I've read many of your posts and am keen for your opinion on this. I've just bought a house as a PPoR (and then eventually will rentvest) last week and am currently in the cooling off period. Would you proceed (even if the house was approx. 7-10% below current market value)?

Cheers in advance

 

Mostly logical people on here but in general people you speak too daily in society are off their head , Along with A few of the comments and sentiment on here

The country is going into lock down in 4 weeks
The economy is going to be a blood bath

You will never have and will never again expierence this, you will be telling your grandkids about this

yes there will be huge potentials once in a. Lifetime opportunities for the lucky few with cash , actual cash , not assets they think they can borrrow against


But for the immediate next few months batten down the hatches.

On a side note anyone for a wager the govt have to bail out one of the big 4??

 

Some people just need to take a deep breath. Stop reading into the media driven hysteria. The storm will pass.