Opportunity is knocking!

I like this guy.

 

That's assuming the market is rational. It's not but how else are you going to decide when to go long.

I guess if the volume of shorts drop it could be an indication? If you know where to find the data

Or other people were posting about futures being positive or negative but I don't know what that means.

 

5 Indicators to Watch When Timing the Bottom of the Stock Market Crash

 

This Is How Experts Think Coronavirus Will Change The World Over The Next 18 Months — Esquire UK

Erm...interesting read

 

I understand better now thanks for that. Iran is really on the brink now. What will happen in the middle east if it all goes nuts? I think this is a really serious question, along with Europe getting smashed. I only mean to say it's complex, and not as easy as a U shaped curve. I think holding cash and a bit of gold is a good idea. I do think that an investment in google or something like that is probably not bad. I can't see them going out of business. I got some Iron Ore because I think it will be needed in China. The price has held pretty well.

 

Good advice thanks.

To be honest I’m more than happy if it’s onwards and upwards from here as well (thought I doubt it)...I went all into the market last Oct with a big lump sum and any losses that I recover in that would far outweigh what I’m can make with the much smaller amount of capital I have on hand to play with at the moment.

 

Nothing says property is more ****** than an entire thread on a property forum dedicated to making money on the equity market.

 

I’d respectfully disagree. In my opinion It’s a sign of the current situation / economy and the value we see as investors in the current equity market.

Although it’s called property chat there are entire sections dedicated to all investment categories not just property.

 

Property investors tend to be long term thinkers IMO.

We also know that property is good for generating capital but has low yields to hold for the long term. (council rates, water rates, sewerage rates, land tax, tenant damage, repairs, maintenance, the list goes on).

I have been considering building a third income stream (on top of super and rent) for a long time. My preferred would be something simple like VAS. It's relatively low risk, low return but franking helps a little. When VAS was in the $80 to $90 range returning $3 to $3.50 per share/year, I couldn't really justify buying it at this stage. However, at under $60, it suddenly becomes a whole lot more attractive to buy now. I know in the short term that dividends will be smashed but I'm in it for the long haul. Think 30 to 40 year investment time frame. It's a no brainer for me.

Also, none of those pesky expenses associated with resi property investments.

 

For me...

Historically, a recession tends to coincide with ultimately a 45-60% crash... so my observation is this is a more serious recession than Aus has ever seen in the last 30 years. Didn’t see that many people at Centrelink at GFC. So that’s one datapoint I find interesting.

A second one is probably just valuation. Even after the crash something like Wisetech trades on a PE multiple of 70x. For a mediocre growth business in tech space, that doesn’t sound all that cheap. Same with something like Afterpay.

Market’s not rational and it can stay like that for a long time - that said at some point the roosters something about coming home and eating roast beef, or whatever that western saying was.

 

In times like this is it fantastic to have experienced traders like yourself around. I appreciate your thoughts on this.

 

Well the US Fed is buying iShares and Vanguard so it’s only up from here !

 

As it relates to Sydney property at least, stock market crashes usually lead to property booms.

This was the case in 1987 (property went vertical), 2001 (property surged higher), and 2008 (there was an initial dip before ultimately moving higher).

This is because of 2 reasons:

1) Governments stimulate. But property doesn't respond to the selling in equity markets straight away because property is illiquid. By the time the stimulus kicks in, property hasn't experienced any panic selling and starts moving higher. It is also the most interest rate sensitive asset, and responds to the onslaught of monetary pump priming.

2) In recessions, supply of properties dries up.

I know that Covid19 is an economic shock first and a financial shock second. It could be different this time. It certainly feels different this time. And it is hard to see this not affecting the property market.

But the historical data suggests that property responds in a muted way to the recession, and in an exaggerated way to the monetary stimulus.

For investors, it is a time to look after your properties, and look after your tenants, and it too will pass. And if property moves higher, we perhaps should not expect it, but this should not be entirely surprising either.

 

VAS means Vanguard Australian Shares right?

 

US stimulus gifts ASX best three days since GFC

Here's an article that just caught my eye in the Fin 10 mins ago...

"The Australian sharemarket has extended its gains into a third session on Thursday as the US Senate finally passed a $US2 trillion stimulus package.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 115.2 points, or 2.3 per cent, to 5113.3, capping off the best three-day period for the benchmark index since January 2008.

Global markets had rallied ahead of the local market open, with hopes high the US Senate would pass the long awaited stimulus package.

The bill was due to be voted on in the Senate a day earlier, however last minute objections halted the vote, with no indication as to when a follow up may be held, causing the market to fall through the session."

So Jan 2008 was halfway through the GFC crash.

 

Dow Futures Sink Fearing Modern America's Worst-Ever Unemployment Crisis

Let the slide recommence..

 

Futures back up over 200pts. Buy the rumour, sell the fact it seems.

 

VANGUARD AUSTRALIAN SHARES INDEX ETF

Share Price & Information - ASX

It's not for everyone. It is relatively low return and income can be a bit lumpy. I would not want to rely on it as my primary source of income.

 

Jan 2008 was month 3 of a slide that lasted for 17 months (Oct 2007 to Mar 2009). We are very early days.

 

Predictions for today’s ASX open to close guys?

@Omnidragon @Sackie @mrdobalina et al?

I’m looking at cases and deaths trends, predicting some more stringent public measures (impacting businesses, including Construction and factories) and predict week 2 and 3 in April to provide a downward trend.