Opportunity is knocking!

Look at the charts. The sharemarket bottoms and recovers before the actual economy. Companies that are closed (casinos for example) had strong gains today. Lots of shop staff stood down. Shares are up. Qantas staff stood down. Qantas is up.

wait for the vaccine or treatment, and you miss the first, often violent leg of the rebound.

it depends on your circumstances. Some people cant afford to take risks because they cant afford to lose money or dont know how to handle losses, some can. This market is risky, but thats where the bigger money is made and lost.

you are basically saying wait for a clear recovery before buying in. Others are buying when the market overshoots to the downside.

the difference is some ask ‘why do you want to risk losing money’ and some ask ‘i’m willing to risk losing money because i think the upside has better odds’.

 

Couldn’t help selling today rather than buying. Had bought VAS and VGS over the past couple of weeks and made some decent gains. I’m intending to buy at discount price for a long hold. However can’t help but think we have a few more big drops to go after the last few days so made a few $’s today and planning to buy them all over again when / if prices drop.

 

Goodluck, don't lose your shirt.

 

Sure! if you are like that Har

I don't know. They have done studies that having a large buffer of cash is good for your mental health. One of the posters is suggesting going balls deep, selling all property and everything and buying the bottom in shares. It's not that all people are afraid to take risks or can't handle losses. It just doesn't seem like the best strategy.

 

Not sure where the joke is. This is deadly serious with people risking real money. Yes people are looking at the market and thinking the upside is more likely than the downside, especially medium to long term.

i think the greatest opportunities are when things look bad. This is from experience. Might be wrong, but...

 

fine. But you know the better, or best strategy, because.....

the best strategy is individual. For someone with 5k and a casual job? For someone on 200k, ppor paid off? Not the same.

 

Haha I have a guy trying to sell his $20m site to buy shares

 

I don't blame him. I would do the same.

 

This is what I think will transpire in the next few weeks.

 

As long as you have undies left should be OK

 

I said literally nothing about investing now. I said literally nothing about WHAT to buy.

I was talking in response to someone who was worried about missing out if things go up now, after a couple of days of positive movement.

The market is VOLATILE right now. If you want to know what's going on, don't focus on the day charts - it's too noisy.

If you look at the longer term charts, there is zero evidence of anything going up.

My point was, don't be tricked into buying now just b/c of a couple of days of buying.

 

On the other hand. 5 years from now? Its going to look cheap. Not the cheapest it got to, probably, but cheap.

 

Can't argue with that

 

Problem is his place is worth $12m

 

You will have long ago missed the boat if you wait until a vaccine is ready Dont get skiltled as it goes flying passed while you are treading water. The vaccine will long have been priced in and suckers will overshoot.The market is forward looking, 5 plus years, you cant value any investment in less than this time frame. A few dollars to-day will be inconsequential in 5 years. After 5 years it made little difference paying $ 4 instead of $3 for FLT in 2008, 10 years latter it only meant getting a 75% pa yeild instead of a 100% pa yeild

 

Also buisness was done very differently in the depression, it could take weeks to get information and weeks to react, There wasnt programmed instantaneous automated trading

 

One point that often gets overlooked is that when a share drops 30% in price your purchasing power increases 42%.

30% drop = 42% increase in shares purchased
40% drop = 66% increase in shares purchased
50% drop = 100% increase in shares purchased

 

I've read/heard several authors say once the peak of the virus hits in America that's when you will most likely see a rebound. That's about 3.5 weeks away. Any chance people are saying f it, I'm buying now before that happens?

 

My uneducated guestimate is that will be seeing a big fall before that. So woudn't be buying now, 2nd week of April will be interesting I reckon

 

Not sure. A lot of guessing around medical numbers. But yes virus peaking logicially should be the bottom because market will buy heaps on a flatter curve.

Though there’s also a tail end risk of mutation (eg Spanish, really American, flu and a relapse in China). As I understand it some cities you can still freely move around in USA.... ? Then of course every recession is different.... will employment numbers in April scare the market? SP500 almost reversed course last night as French employment numbers came in. Policy wise how many more shots can it inject? Unlimited QE already out.

For me I’d probably switch massively long when curve flattens. Same argument as buying on way down. Buying on way up basically gives same entry price, but retains optionality of cash.