NSW Opportunity cost between NSW regionals v other capital cities

I must say that the science of real estate is not an exact or perfect one because there are conflicting views amongst the experts.
On one hand you've got people talking about the virtues of long term fundamentals of population growth, economics, jobs, unemployment and infrastructure projects.
On the other hand you hear a lot about market cycles and in particular timing the market.
Then you have this psychological thing called market sentiment and where people feel they would like to live. You can also include lifestyle choices, tree changes, downsizes, and the Sydney ripple effect, and market within many market ideology.
You also have this concept of affordability and what the banks will let you borrow money on and individual risk profile and stage of life.
Finally you have all this data available, median price, days on market, vendor discount, advertised rent and growth rates.
May I also add you also have the media which like to hype things one way or another, some people call it noise.
So in the end you hope to tick most boxes as you do your research.
Ok so with all this information you can start to get a little tied in knots (I'm already confused just proof reading this post).
As a result of all this's one of my thoughts are this:
Sydney has great long term fundamentals but it's past its peak and is very unaffordable.
Newcastle and Wollongong has benefited from being close to Sydney but is at the peak of the market. If Sydney goes flat do these areas follow?
Melbourne is getting unaffordable and close to peakbut has very good population growth fundamentals but the offordable areas are 40km out of town. What will areas like Cranbourne, Melton, Werribee and Sunbury be like in ten years time. A lot of Melbournians like the inner to middle ring suburbs of the East.
Hobart for a long time has had the worst growth of any capital city in Australia but currently is rising on the property clock, is very affordable and properties are selling quickly in a hot market.
Adelaide has a much bigger population than Hobart, Newcastle and Orange combined yet is not growing faster enough, has high unemployment, but is affordable and very compact city and candlight dinners.
Who can help me!

 

general comment
7 yrs ago, when I first considered buying property, there were a lot of reports about overpriced sydney - esp in areas I was interested, like Chatswood, Inner city etc When I told my parents (with a bit of I'm young so I'm right kinda thing) there was a bubble, my parents laughed and laughed (and they dont' often). They said they had heard this since they were poor teenagers in Hong Kong and the general situation for a lot of the workforce was much worse then here today, most were uneducated, slaving for slave wages and long hours, no job security, jumping job to job, jack of all trades. And if they had listened back then, life would've been very different. And the same message continued - for decades now. And yes its not great for society, today some ppl are living literally in cages, ppl sign up to queue for goverment housing lottery when they get into primary school in the hope they get something for themselves by the time they become adults - but the point remains that housing costs and prices never stopped going up.

 

Dare I say it... You can't really go too wrong with Sydney and Melbourne. If (non mining) international companies are going to have a presence in Australia, the office will generally be in one of these two cities.

Even if they pull back, it would be temporarily. If you buy in a good location, long term they'll go back up and surpass previous highs.
I think they can have significantly higher prices than other Australian locations because of jobs and overseas migration and they'll keep growing.

 

No, not exact science. So do your best and buy into what you are comfortable with.

 

Arrivals to Greater Sydney by source location, 2015/16 Photo: Alison Taylor, ABS

(Borrowed from the thread featuring the Jennifer Duke article.)

Although there is a lot of movement out of Sydney to Melbourne, there is also massive migration to regional NSW. Actual migrants and refugees who have been hand-picked. I know for sure that they have been flown into Newcastle, Coffs Harbour and Wagga Wagga. I would be checking not only for upcoming infrastructure projects but also for government contracts which have recently been issued in regional areas.
There are pros and cons to every regional.

• Newcastle is very much like Sydney now. In itself it's a major city; some would say already 'unaffordable'. However, close enough to Sydney to commute for work if necessary and a great place to live.
• Same with Wollongong.
• Albury is beautiful and has a good yield. There was an influx of migration 6 or 7 years ago. How about now?
• Wagga Wagga is cold and gloomy in winter and hasn't moved since the iceage. However, there's recently been a major influx of immigrants / refugees who are creating services jobs and who will be looking to buy in a few years. At present, they have soaked up any softening in the rental market.
• Orange had a boom and then went backwards and hten backwards again with the closure of some old companies. But it's had an on-going tree-change thing going on and is very beautiful. It's also only 3 hrs from Sydney.
• Bathurst is almost not even in the country. Only 25 mins away from Orange but seems more like a pretty suburb of Sydney these days. The old adage 'west is best' will carry all the way out to here and eventually the infrastructure and migrants will arrive - probably sooner rather than later the way things are looking.
• Then there's Tamworth, Goulbourn, the Central Coast, etc etc all bound to do well.

1. If you can afford a million dollar place and the negative gearing, then yes, go to the cities.
2. Otherwise, look on the outskirts.
3. You wouldn't buy into a regional area unless you were to get a good yield. So look for a low price and a very good yield and you've made good money on day 1.

Incidentally, the inland freight rail will go through Parkes! not Oange and Bathurst. (It will also go though various other inland towns and cities, basically assuring their longevity.)

 

Even though it goes through Parkes, Orange and Bathurst will suit those working on it and still want to live in a major town, though land is extremely cheap in Parkes ATM, was looking a little while ago.

Current situation means I'll be sitting on my hands for the moment though.

 

And don't forget Dubbo
The towns closer to where new sections are being built will boom me think...

 

No booms!
But the actual towns and the larger areas around them will continue to thrive with this new infrastructure. The building and maintenance will provide jobs for locals and more experts; plus the farmers will have easier, cheaper, faster and more reliable access to ports and major citiies.
I was hoping it would reduce the number of trucks on the roads around Parkes but now I'm thinking that they'll just keep coming from all directions. Parkes is already somewhat of a transport hub and I imagine it will become the transport hub of all transport hubs with this railway line which will one day be followed up with other railways. I see on the map that there's already one going west to Adelaide though not sure how much it's used.

All stops will be transport hubs. What kind of jobs will they create/ expand?

• Obviously, rail work: welders, labourers, engineers.
• Also administration and office work: lots of it, including liaison with farmers and shipping.
• Heavy lifting: changing carriages and loads around, transferring from truck to train, etc.
• Security: staff only plus protection of goods while not in motion.
• Everything that goes with a larger workforce: human resources, counsellors, middle managers, canteens and cafes, etc.
• More farmers?

In Parkes alone ,the roads and hospitals have already been improved in the last few years and it will need to be on-going. Schools, restaurants, etc, etc.
What else is happening in the area: a major solar farm Oh yeah, and copper mining.
The same questions could be asked of every stop along the way.
Do your own due diligence and ask your own questions but don't listen to the 'whoop whoop' froth and bubble.

 

Orange is marked for boom city the housing development is booming, new residential estates. I'm told to stay away from around BCF, although Electrolux did close down the mines are kicking off as well. Mudgee has also been flagged as a boom city people from Sydney are locating there to escape the riff raff. In Orange new 4 bed houses $375k this is also a good city to flip properties. Can get below market properties. Orange has a low vavancy rate. Watch this space.

 

Any update @Serveman ? How have Orange, Mudgee and Dubbo progressed since 2017?

 

Good question.
I really didn't expect to see such high demand and high price tags on Parkes & Forbes property so soon - time passes so quickly - that's 4 years ago.

 

Regionals are going bonkers - how market has changed in last 4 years! How much left is the question I guess