One does not simply "recover" from a virus

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Lizzie, 5th Jul, 2020.

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  1. Casteller

    Casteller Well-Known Member

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    Mortality rate highly dependent on age and underlying health. For most people it's better than 99% survival rate. Here's an online calculator of risk

    COVIDAge Risk Calculator™

    For me chances of dying if I get Covid is 0.23% (99.77% survival), chance of hospital 5.2%, chance of ICU 1.6%. So if 30% hospitalisations have long term health effects chance of that about 1.6%. But really there no "long term" data yet.

    I entered some other combos
    Healthy 30 year old, chance of dying 0.04% (99.96% survival)
    Healthy 20 year old, chance of dying 0.02 % (99.98% survival)
    Healthy 65 year old, chance of dying 0.45 % (99.55% survival)
    Overweight 70 year old, smoker, high bloodp chance 7.3% (92.7%)
    90 year old with all the underlying conditions, chance 21% (79%)
     
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  2. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    True - the risks of "dying" are lowish - around 1% of those infected - but this thread is about the ongoing affects of exposure to the virus ... much of which is not yet known or understood.

    Examples of how a virus can lie dormant and adversely affect someone years - decades - later can be found in the original post. Nothing to be taken lightly
     
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  3. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    Did you read this?
    Seems Allan not to for of the mark:rolleyes: Even a healthy 65 year old has a 99.55% chance of survival, even I would not have believed that not to long ago.
     
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  4. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    This thread is not about the death rate (which is still 10x the flu death rate) ... but the ongoing health issues suffered by those who have "recovered" and how those health issues can potentially haunt survivors for decades to come

    Have no time for the fossil Jones and his divisive BS
     
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  5. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    Ok I will leave it at 99% of cases are mild.
    I suppose it will take decades before we know the answers of long term damage from this Virus but in my opinion people should just get on with a good healthy and happy lifestyle and live there life. There are so many things that cause long term health issues but the world must go on. Most of these things cause a lot of enjoyment too, but why focus on that...
     
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  6. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    You're still wrong.

    1% die ... 20% end up in hospital ... 5% end up requiring some form of icu breathing assistance ( included in hospitalised figure) ... the other 80% range from chronically bedridden for weeks but not requiring hospitalization, down to mild

    Approximately 40-50% of those that have "recovered" have ongoing health issues

    So please, stop touting 99% mild as that figure is blatantly false propaganda
     
    Last edited: 1st Sep, 2020
  7. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    It is my opinion. Ongoing health issues is a very wide term. We could honestly talk about anything having long term health issues. I don't want to live in fear for the rest of my life and neither do the people who have contracted and successfully recovered from this virus.
    You say 50% have ongoing health issues, that sounds really scary. Nearly 17million people have recovered. Are you saying half of them are going to have ongoing health issues?
     
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  8. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    While a healthy 66 year old male has a .5% chance of dying, he has a 5.9% chance of hospitalisation.

    If he's a bit overweight, with moderately high blood pressure (being treated) and an inside person not getting much Vitamin D, he has an 8% mortality and 14% chance of hospitalisation.

    So looking at healthy individuals is fine, at least half of men are overweight, and probably with some blood pressure issues.
     
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  9. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Not what I say ... not what some politician says ... it is what what the experts in their respective science fields say ... try reading some of the previous links on this thread to educate yourself.

    It can be scary and one should be aware but not alarmed
     
  10. Shazz@

    Shazz@ Well-Known Member

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    I wasn’t talking about immunity. Simply that those aged under 40 who have ‘recovered’ versus those who have not (for whatever reason), will pass on these genes to their offspring. If/when the virus comes around again, their bodies will be better equipped to deal with the consequences and may for e.g. recover quicker, or may not be impacted at all. Who knows.
    I agree, vaccine is the short term answer, but long term, it could be evolution. Darwin saw natural selection with his finches in his life time, so it may happen in a generation or 2. We aren’t talking monkeys to humans :)
    Back to topic.. we don’t know long term effects..but considering all the stuff humans have put their bodies through (junk food, obesity, alcohol, tobacco etc etc.. ), on average we still live a pretty long life.
     
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  11. TAJ

    TAJ Well-Known Member

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    The OP put up numerous viruses and their long term health issues. Why would anyone think it would be any different for Covid 19?
    My point which was obviously missed, was that it would be nice to hear some positive statements instead of the continual negativity.
     
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  12. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    I believe one should only look at closed cases, ones with a definitive outcome.

    For the world, 4% of closed cases have ended in death, not 1%.

    Australia has done better than the world by 25% (surprise! surprise!!) with 3% of closed cases have ended in death.

    Out of interest, USA has done worse than the world by 25% (surprise! surprise!!) with 5%.

    One does not know with active cases as some of these will probably die (how many?) and the remainder will recover. Some of those who recover (how many?) will probably have long term health issues.

    Both the world and Australia has 1% of active cases rated as “critical or serious”. There is definitely more deaths to come.
     
    Last edited: 3rd Sep, 2020
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  13. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I suspect the 1% (as quoted by the UK stats office) is because it is suspected diagnoses is at 10-20% of actual infections ... based on random trials of antibody tests.

    ... and here's another little virus sucker that can have long lasting effects

    Deciphering Zika Virus Transmission From Mother to Baby
     
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  14. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    The point of the OP was to counteract the many people who were saying "most people make a full recovery" by pointing out that "not dying" is not the same as "no impact" and being infected can still have long lasting impacts even if you are no longer infected by the virus and are thus considered "recovered".

    Again, the point of the messaging is to make people understand just how serious this virus can be and to not take it lightly.

    If the authorities run around saying "it's just a mild virus - most people make a full recovery" then that dismisses the real risk that people will become complacent, get exposed to the virus and then end up with long term health issues (or die!). Or worse - spread it to vulnerable people who die because of the complacency brought on by the "positive statements".

    It's kind of like saying "only one person out of 6 playing Russian Roulette will die - so it's all good" when the reality is that one person who decides to play is actually going to die. The only winning move is not to play.
     
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  15. TAJ

    TAJ Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough.
    I do think the majority of people understand the severity of the virus, as well as the possibility of long term health issues, which can arise from most, if not all viruses.
    I guess I am just fed up with the constant doom and gloom outlook.:(
     
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  16. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Hang in there!!

    The next golden age is on its way!!!
     
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  17. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Yes, although I am not particularly scared of getting the flu - I am very much concerned with getting COVID-19 given I am potentially in an at risk category (although hopefully young enough to have a good chance of survival).

    I hear you.

    I think once we manage to get the Victorian outbreak under control and down to NSW levels of daily new cases (or better!) then I think there will be a lot more cause for optimism. Until then, we (or more specifically, the Victorians) have to continue to put in the hard yards.

    If it helps, Australia's chart is looking really good - I think we should be proud of what we have achieved - Australia is back down to #75 in the world for average daily cases.

    upload_2020-9-3_17-52-6.png
     
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  18. TAJ

    TAJ Well-Known Member

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    I hope I live long enough to partake in this golden age you speak of!:)
     
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  19. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    I decided to ask 3 random people today what there outlook on covid was.
    To my surprise each of the 3 thought there had been tens of millions of world wide deaths due to covid. Not 1 of them believed me the current world wide death toll stood at under 900 thousand.

    I showed one on my phone and he didn't believe it, said you cant believe the internet lol and he new there were millions and millions of deaths and this virus was wiping out nations.
     
  20. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I'm not that surprised by this - I've found that the majority of the general population don't really have a good grasp of what's going on anywhere in the world.

    They get their news from social media and make assumptions based on headlines (or clickbait fake news) and don't understand what is actually going on, let alone know what it means.

    Critical thinking and a knowledge of the world and history is not a high priority for a lot of people. Similarly, understanding how to research a topic and to judge the veracity of claims being made is also something a lot of people simply don't have.

    To be fair, I would know a lot less about this pandemic if it wasn't for my wife's work in the NSW Health Counter Disaster Unit - and especially if I didn't also take the time to read a lot of the detail being published by various authoritative sources.
     
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