On "The right place, right time"

Hi everybody, I used to hear a lot about the concept of a "right place, right time". I heard many stories about people who were not necessarily looking for something big, or even trying notably, but were in a good position to spring up into the stratosphere because of a "right place right time". What you don't hear a lot about, is how you can calculate the right place right time, or at least get better at predicting it.

Here is an analogy that I came up with to explain my line of thinking.

There are 3 swimmers:
1st - Mediocre Swimmer: He has great swimming technique, but is not a strong swimmer
2nd - Advanced Swimmer: He has excellent swimming technique and is a strong swimmer
3rd - Novice Swimmer: He has not swum much before, but enjoys a splash at the beach.

All 3 swimmers are at a beach, and some waves roll in.

The first few waves are small waves, and the 1st and 2nd swimmers are able to catch onto them and go a few metres with the wave before it tapers off. The strong swimmer is able to go a little further with a bit more work than the mediocre swimmer. The 3rd swimmer just kinda stays there with the wave, mucking around.

Then, the HUGE waves come, these don't come every day, and don't come often, but when they come, they are full of energy and power:
The mediocre swimmer has good technique, and thus is able to ride the wave all the way back to the beach, the wave does almost all the work, the swimmer is just there, in the right place at the right time.
The advanced swimmer is also able to ride the wave all the way back to the beach, again the wave does almost all the work but the technique means the swimmer does well at getting back.
The novice swimmer... probably stays where he is, barely able to latch onto the wave due to poor technique, he has a chance to potentially drown, as he is not very experienced, he also might "luck out" and kinda do the right things to go all the way back to the beach.

The technique of each swimmer, is related to your experience, or knowledge, the power of the swimmer is analagous to how much assets, power or influence they have to draw from. The waves, the waves are like opportunities, sometimes you see an opportunity where you have to work really hard to get a decent result, and sometimes the opportunity is so large, you only have to do the right things and let the wave carry you forward. The beach is like the context, as specific or as broad as you want, perhaps the beach is the tech industry, or real estate, or the Sydney real estate market in particular, or whatever.

If you want to maximise your chances of "right place, right time", its best to be the mediocre swimmer, learn whatever you can that is conducive to success, and start looking out for beaches where the biggest waves come. Then, when you see the wave, you will have the right knowledge and experience to ride it all the way back to the shore, even if you don't have a lot of influence, power or capital behind you.

 

The game of soccer / football taught me a lot about this, even though I have very little interest in the game.

If you put the best teams in the world against an average team, a lot of the times you'll still find a 1-0 score. In the premier league it's not rare to see a lot of 0-0's, 1-1's etc. A lot of games come down to the wire...a penalty kick, a fluke.

It seemed to me to be almost random that you could have the best teams in the world playing a crap team and so much of it came down to luck and randomness. I never liked soccer because of this.

But over the long haul, even though each game can come down to the wire, there are certain teams that consistently win. There's a reason why Man U etc have such big names. This changed my way of thinking about the sport.

It made me realise it's not about smashing it out of the park every time and the absolute best football team isn't one characterised as being able to win every game 7-0, it's about a slow and steady push forward which will by law of probability put you ahead of the pack most of the time. In investment terms, every deal doesn't need to knock it out of the park, but just by being in the game and pushing forward, that deal of the century will appear from time to time, again simply by law of probability.

 

I don't get it?
Why would you choose to be the mediocre swimmer instead of the advanced swimmer?
Is this more about the 80:20 rule?

 

Yup agree. It's similar in the jobs scene I've found. I've seen 2 people with same background , same education , same attitude, same experience.. Etc..in same roles, and one is a star and consistent performer and held in high regard, whereas the other flops badly.
They did a similar study on the performance of similar US Navy ships and crew a while back. Interesting when 2 pretty much equal entities get wildy different results on a consistent basis.

 

Good point, nothing wrong with being the advanced swimmer. But the point I was trying to make is that its most effective to focus on the technique (experience, practice, knowledge) and learn how to observe approximate timing patterns for when opportunity will come knocking and contexts that attract big waves that you'll be able to ride. This way you're maxing out your efficiency.

The advanced swimmer has probably spent a lot more time swimming, but the mediocre swimmer has probably freed up a lot of time he could have spent swimming on other things. Obsession with something productive will do you well, but I'd rather taper it down once I get good at what I do, if I don't need to keep the obsession high.

 

You need to go to the beach first... And know what beach to go to, at what times, with the best waves.