Oil prediction, $150

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Sackie, 24th Mar, 2022.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,035
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Predicting oil to hit $150. I'm trading oil long.


    Opinions on oil?
     
  2. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    7,438
    Location:
    WA
    upload_2022-3-26_15-45-8.png

    upload_2022-3-26_15-48-5.png
     
    bmc and Silverson like this.
  3. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    6,675
    Location:
    Mt Druuiitt
    When oil went back under $100 the other day I thought that was the end of high oil prices. But no, back up she went.
     
    Redwing likes this.
  4. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    7,438
    Location:
    WA
    upload_2022-3-26_16-20-36.png

    upload_2022-3-26_16-21-7.png
     
    datto likes this.
  5. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    6,675
    Location:
    Mt Druuiitt
    So, people do make money out of wars.
     
  6. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    6,776
    Location:
    ....UKI nth nsw ....
    I would say there is more of a possibility that it goes into the $1-30 range then back below $95-00
    Big corporations have one overriding objective :maximising shareholder value..
     
  7. No_Limits

    No_Limits Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    10th Jan, 2021
    Posts:
    394
    Location:
    Sydney
    There's a war ongoing so who knows. But I'll throw my hat in and say it won't go to $150. Nobody is blowing up oil fields, Russian oil is safe just sanctioned. Say they produce ~10mbbl/day and ~ 2-3mbbl/d are being kept from export due to sanctions. I think even that 2-3mbbl will find its way to market eventually.

    Keep tabs on what the shale producers are doing. I think there's something like ~3mbbl/day they could bring on fairly easily but haven't to date due to fiscal discipline (shale has basically constantly lost money since starting circa 2013, before consolidating into a few more disciplined majors in the last couple years). All production, shale, even Canadian oil sands, going to be well in-the-money at $100/bbl. Most of it requires investment with long lead times, but not shale, so like I said I would watch that, especially if Biden decides the US is going to solve Europe's energy crisis and actually incentivizes his producers. The oil/gas is there.
     
    Sackie likes this.
  8. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,035
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Update:

    Been trading oil long since I started this thread and added 6 times over the last few months my oil holdings.

    I predict it could reach $150 or close to it. I purchased from $101 to $107.

    Anyone else have opinions on oil?
     
  9. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Nov, 2018
    Posts:
    1,481
    Location:
    Sydney
    Biggest regret of my life was not purchase oil options on trading platform for $1 at beginning of Covid. Was going to throw a lazy $5k on it.

    Anything could happen with Oil given current international developments. Russian oil will just get processed via China, India etc and resold to market.
     
  10. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    6,675
    Location:
    Mt Druuiitt
    Seems like oil at about $120 is the tops then it just slip slides away.

    "Slip slidin' away
    You know the nearer your destination
    The more you're slip slidin' away"

    Just thought I'd add that from Paul Simon singer. Seems relevant
     
  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,035
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    Yep, over the last many years there is a ton of selling pressure at $120 mark. I've tightened all positions greatly over the last 2 days.

    The very first peak you see did get to the 140+ range. So well see.

    Screenshot_20220531-141613_TradingView.jpg
     
    datto likes this.
  12. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    8th Nov, 2015
    Posts:
    3,770
    Location:
    Brisbane - Sydney
    Who benefits the most out of this conflict?
    Good old USA that is who.
    Sell more wheat
    Sell more gas
    Sell more oil
    Sell more weapons

    All while no boots on the ground and zero American casualty.
    winner winner chicken dinner
     
    Doncossack likes this.
  13. No_Limits

    No_Limits Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    10th Jan, 2021
    Posts:
    394
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yep, prompt is up $12 in the past week to $122. Haven't followed why, but I'm guessing the EU is getting serious about the Russian oil embargo, which would see all EU countries buy no Russian oil by the end of the year. I think they deliver ~4mbbl/day to EU via pipeline now. I previously said the sanctions weren't enough because the oil would just end up at Chinese and Indian refineries anyway. Well those refineries are almost at capacity now, and they can't take more of that type of oil (heavy, sour). If all EU countries sign on, then it will actually be too much for Russia to just re-sell elsewhere. But I still highly doubt it goes to $150.
     
    Sackie likes this.
  14. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    30th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    4,081
    Location:
    Margaritaville
    I like Olive oil. Not the vegetable oils that make you go blind.
    Crude oil is a bit sour on the salad and stinks in the pan, so I wont be buying any..

    It has been higher twice before and the strange thing is that there's plenty demand for that oil.
    The embargos are achieving the opposite of what was supposedly intended and RU is making many more billions per month.
    And if they crash it, the US loses many more as they are still one of the largest producers. And cheap doesn't make people buy electric cars.
    And if people are weened off Oil then demand decreasees and prices can't be sustained.
    Or maybe it's just a short squeeze.
    crude-oil-price-history-chart-2022-05-31-macrotrends.png
     
    Sackie likes this.
  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,035
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    If we can get close to the $135 mark I'd be super, super happy. Beyond super.



    Screenshot_20220609-090317_TradingView.jpg
     
    Tofubiscuit likes this.
  16. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Nov, 2018
    Posts:
    1,481
    Location:
    Sydney
    I read the other day that key 3 items are putting pressure with pricing
    - Oil
    - Micro chips
    - Fertiliser

    This to me is scary for the world. These things are feed into everything. High inflation may be here to stay which will continue to push interest rates.

    Oil at $150, ouch for Developed world..... this is Brent Oil prices. The oil prices from Russia, Iran etc will be cheap and being taken up by China, Turkey, India etc. They will be able to have lower inflation and produce cheaper
     
    paulF likes this.
  17. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    25,035
    Location:
    Vaucluse, Sydney.
    The world has always been a scary place tbh. I choose to live in my own world..much, much happier that way:oops:

    Not wanting to sound preachy, but at the end of the day we are as content as we allow ourselves to live in a reality we choose.


    Most people who go to the petrol pump and see prices up are frustrated. I'm more than happy to go to the pump and pay more:oops:
     
    Last edited: 9th Jun, 2022
    sharon and Tofubiscuit like this.
  18. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Nov, 2018
    Posts:
    1,481
    Location:
    Sydney
    Being trying to convince the mrs to buy a plot of land in the mountains and become a hermit. She didn't entertain that
     
    sharon and Sackie like this.
  19. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    6,175
    Location:
    Australia
    I posted this on another thread. Hopefully microchips and fertiliser prices will continue to drop. Oil will probably drop also.

    Inflation Is Poised to Ease According to These Three Key Indicators
     
  20. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Nov, 2018
    Posts:
    1,481
    Location:
    Sydney
    Hope they come off. May take some time to flow through, but with the geopolitical environment I believe there is high probability high prices on all 3 will persist for some time
     
    paulF likes this.