October Corelogic Data

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by berten, 1st Nov, 2018.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,018
    Location:
    canberra

    Yep.. even after the price fall Syd/melb could have a long stagnation period like before, may be recovery by 2025?

    Perth is quite interesting,
    It has not yet crossed the peak reached in 2006/7, infact as per CL its still 10% lower then that peak, many outskirts doing even worse.

    Has inner ring area crossed its 2006/7 peak?

    I saw a tweet today pointing to rising 90+ arrears on banks books originating from WA, will try to find the source.


    I was getting impression that Perth is closer to bottom from the chatters on perth thread, thought any one who was desperate would have got out many years ago, but looks like there may be some more pain left, what do you think?

    Was looking at some inner middle ring suburbs, can't remember the name, some of it had a mini boom sort of in 13/14/15 but looks like some of those regions have given back the rise.

    Is it due to Credit tightening?
    or IO2PI in play? (I understand you discount the impact of this but no harm trying ;))
    or something else (jobs?)
     
    Last edited: 1st Nov, 2018
  2. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,087
    Location:
    Perth
    I am not sure but I believe not. @MTR, has Mt Lawley gone back to 2006/7 peak prices yet?

    Depends on the area. Inner ring is definitely warming up. Demand is on the rise and stock on market is tightening. I know 2 people who bought inner ring recently and both had to pay over asking to secure a deal. I believe that some outer suburbs will continue to fall. i.e. Baldivis and Butler. Bad news. I don't think they have reached bottom.

    The mid ring mini boom suburbs are where I invest so know some areas well from participating in the market. The bottom line here is they way overshot prices. I was at auctions where prices exceeded the price record for the area and the property was still passed in. Prices were not sustainable and had to come back. I believe some areas are still a little over priced and some have come back to fair value. Where I want to buy next I could get better deals last year than this year. Prices seem to be firming to me.
     
    icic and TheSackedWiggle like this.
  3. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Jun, 2016
    Posts:
    769
    Location:
    Australia
    I wouldn't say busts last longer. In Dublin prices peaked in 2006, had their "minor blip/downturn" in 2007, and 2008/2009 were the tough years with the biggest falls. Recession hit in 2009-2011, and it's only been up from there.

    Most decent assets were done falling by 2009, and fell far less than some. We have to remember median falls aren't uniform. The crappy new half-built estates and flats often fell 100%, but good assets fell far less and recovered more quickly.

    I'd say if this is a crash, it'll be good buying by 2020. By the time the economy starts to go bad, it'll be almost over.
     
  4. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,764
    Location:
    My World

    No not necessarily, its dependent on product and price points
    Still oversupply of apartments
    Period homes big demand but not 2007 prices, better market today than 18 months ago
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  5. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,764
    Location:
    My World

    Check out Australian boom/bust cycles... not Dublin.

    Busts do last longer than boom cycles, some as long as 7 years, Perth, Syd, Brisbane, Tassie

    Melb - I think last bust cycle was shorter 3 years.

    Melb actually boomed in 2008 GFC, I know I was buying unlike other States
     
  6. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,787
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Another 7-8% drop for Melbourne and Sydney and then we get into a 3 year stagnate.
    Only way to make money after around mid next year will be value add....so actually being a proactive investor.
     
    2FAST4U, MTR and Perthguy like this.
  7. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    623
    Location:
    Brisbane
    “Nationally, the highest value quarter of the market has led the downturn with prices falling 6.6% while lower quartile values have recorded a 0.5% rise,” Lawless said.
     
  8. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,764
    Location:
    My World

    So will you play in Melb market
     
  9. QldKoolies

    QldKoolies Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    28th Sep, 2018
    Posts:
    45
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Its a disaster, its all going down down down. Sell sell sell. So i can buy buy buy.
     
  10. QldKoolies

    QldKoolies Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    28th Sep, 2018
    Posts:
    45
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Middle ring north side Brisbane, CoreLogic by suburb from Nundah to Ashgrove all dropped by 2-7 % from the peak in Jan 18 with the exception of Alderley (which just steadied then is now rising). For most suburbs in that ring the bottom looked like August based off most recent data. This is just plain old seasonal cycles poor stock during the winter. Ground truth from my weekly auctions and opens is the good homes continued to go strong. What bubble? What boom? If we didnt have national news Qld wouldnt know whats going on down south.
     
    kierank likes this.
  11. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Feb, 2017
    Posts:
    264
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I will. It will be a PPOR. Sometime next year.

    Probably the longest I can hold out. We need to move at some point.

    I already held my wife back 18-24 months. I think making her wait near 3 years will be the max.
     
  12. SOULFLY3

    SOULFLY3 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    111
    Location:
    MELB/HAWAII
    I am in same boat minus the wife, already getting hassled by agents and only started going to opens 2 weeks ago.. will buy next yr Bayside Melb PPOR- development potential no rush thats for sure.
     
    WandereringTribe and MTR like this.
  13. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Mar, 2017
    Posts:
    490
    Location:
    Sydney
    RE investment is interesting thing - prices go up - good - we become richer, prices go down - even better - lots of opportunities to buy and to be rich.... so whatever happens - same outcome :D

    Time to rewrite the books... the only one thing left to remember is that cycles is the observation of the past, not the rule or law for future performance;)
     
  14. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,787
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Ofcourse ;)
    Melbourne has the most long term upside of any Australian Capital city.
    Pulled out my shopping money this week and it’s parked until mid next year and then I’ll look to grab a development site.
     
  15. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,764
    Location:
    My World

    Just don't do some investors do, buy a deve site and cant source the finance.

    Speaking to an experienced Melb developer today, turns over stock regularly, its a tough gig at the moment. He is getting offered many sites from re agents, no one is buying and as he said developers cant source finance its a tough gig atm
     
    SOULFLY3 likes this.
  16. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,787
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Not an issue. As I have said time and time again, if you want borrowing capacity then you just need to increase income.
    Most people focus on cutting expenses which does ZERO.
     
  17. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,764
    Location:
    My World

    If it were that simple? Its dependent on asset base, income, development size. Apparently some lenders wont lend resi over 2 units now
     
  18. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,787
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I honestly believe increasing income is actually easier than cutting expenses. I find most people fail to value their own worth to their employers.
    Or that people become complacent and don’t upskill and just expect a pay increase outside of inflation.

    Everyone should be constantly upskilling (even at their own expense) and using this in pay reviews.
     
    SOULFLY3 and kierank like this.
  19. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,018
    Location:
    canberra
    Nov 18 Update

    [​IMG]

    Sydney Houses,
    Peak CoreLogic Index = 182 (Oct 17)

    end of Nov18,
    corelogic sydney index fell by 2.34 point,
    CL sydney house price Index = 163.41
    (from 165.75 last month)
    Fall from peak = 10.2%

    Monthly Rate of fall increased to an all time high of 1.28%,
    when extrapolated yearly Nov18 fall is at the rate of 15.4%..
     
  20. kitdoctor

    kitdoctor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    130
    Location:
    Darwin
    I approached Corelogic and asked them whether they'd make more of their back series data available. That is, via the rolling 365 day data set for "home values" which I assume is for houses and units combined by extending it to all the data they have since introducing the index. Anyway no luck - as expected. 365 days is insufficient to analyse.

    So what I've done is analysed the ATO's quarterly data which starts from 2003. It's not ideal as it's too coarse at quarterly but nevertheless best I have have. Anyone interested in a thread on this?