October Corelogic Data

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by berten, 1st Nov, 2018.

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  1. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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  2. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    That’s nothing

    My share portfolio has dropped 7.62% in the lat 3 months.

    No panic here ;).
     
  3. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    Sydney Houses,
    peak CoreLogic Index = 182 (Oct 17)
    Current CoreLogic Index = 165 (Oct 18)
    Fall from peak = 9.3%
     
  4. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    where in corelogic site you got this graph?
     
  5. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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  6. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    I see its for houses. looks like its going to reach the 2015 level soon. Looks like good opportunities for first home buyer and upgraders.
     
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  7. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    it was in one of the reports,
    you can google core logic index sydney in images,

    I inferred 182 from this chart.
     
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  8. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    I put up a post couple of days ago emphasising exactly this point.

    Scenario
    • 1. Sydney falls by 23% from its peak by 2021,
      • CL index will be at 140, we are looking at late 2014 prices.
      • i.e. Prices have to rise by 30% just to reach its previous peak
    • 2. Sydney falls by 30% from its peak by 2021,
      • CL index will be at 127, we are looking at late 2013 prices.
      • i.e. Prices have to rise by 43% just to reach its previous peak
    Personally I think by 2021,
    scenario 1 is highly likely and Scenario 2 is less likely but possible,
    but very many highly experienced investor disagree as they think its normal cyclical corrections like before,
    I respect their opinion but struggling to logically comprehend their view given the headwinds in next 2/3 years like
    • Credit tightening being the new normal (Actual expense, DTI caps, Extracting equity is getting challenging etc)
    • IO2PI rollver of 360bn by 2021,
    • OTP settlements
    • Ng reform
    • FONGO selling
    • Rising Funding pressure due to International Bond yileds

      unless gov intervenes.

      The bullish arguments for syd/melb are even applicable now
      Sydney infra spending is already firing on all cylinders, migration is higher then avg, IR at all time low and yet we have extent and rate of fall even visible on Index and we are not even half way by when all headwinds will pass.

      I been visiting lots of local auctions in Canberra, just to get a feel, There is a visible slow down but yet to reflect meaningfully in price.

      PS: I lack the intuition of many experienced investors here and going by just logical projections, hence looking very closely to see how this pans out and learn from it.
     
    Last edited: 1st Nov, 2018
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  9. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Share falls and surges of that magnitude are a daily occurrence. These property numbers are of significance because they represent the sharpest falls in 30 years and they seem to be accelerating.
     
  10. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    @TheSackedWiggle, I agree 2021 is the time to really seriously watch the Sydney market. Have you had a close look at the house prices in Sydney from 2003 to 2013? The market didn't move much but did decline and move up during that time. I'm not sure the next recovery will take so long because populations and economic conditions are different.

    For price drops you can study Perth. There wasn't a widespread drop of 30% because sellers refused to sell at such a discount. They simply left houses on the market or withdrew them. A few forced sales does not crash a market. Sellers have a floor price and most won't go lower than that. These are things you need to factor in when considering a 30% drop scenario.
     
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  11. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Price drops = buying opportunities. I wasn't quick enough to pick up VAS at a nice discount. As soon as I'm set up I will buy regardless. It's still a good price. Hope it drops more ;)
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Hang on - Bust markets last longer than boom markets.

    Why buy when a market is falling?? what you think it a bargain today …. tomorrow will be a case where you paid too much

    Logic tells me you need more than infrastructure spending for a market boom..... and APRA aint going away yet, and interest rates are rising

    I will sit back and watch, I am not buying a primary residence and I am not interested in 3% yields while markets are falling/going sideways and interest rates are rising.
    Will be Lucky to keep up with inflation, which in real terms means you are losing money
     
  13. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    Patience is a virtue :)
     
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  14. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Maybe a single share but hopefully not a whole portfolio.

    One of my shares dropped 25% in one day last week, up nearly 17% since yesterday morning.

    Good old AMP
     
  15. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    The last Sydney boom peaked near the end of 2003 while I was still a student. I picked up my first property at the end of 2007 for at good price in a divorce sale and used the equity for subsequent one in 2009 in a bank sale after the builder gone bankrupted(Truly bottomed due to GFC aftermath). Although it kinda when up a little, but not until 2012-13 where we saw the boom under way. If the last boom is any guide, 2021 might still be a little too soon, but again depend on how far it falls and how the lending environment, wage growth and the economy plays out.
     
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  16. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    But I am not in accumulation phase, I am an old farty pensioner :D.
     
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  17. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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  18. Deck

    Deck Well-Known Member

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    if you were leveraged at 95% that would not be pretty ;-)
     
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  19. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    no different to any asset class, unless its positive cash flow and not costing you anything I guess.
     
  20. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Lucky all shares are cash buys, no debt
     
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