NSW Panania area on the rise

Some pretty crazy results for seller in the Padstow/ Panania/ Revesb recently. Block with duplex potential have been bid aggressively since new year. I attended an auction last night, price guide was 920k (not that this is any reliable) final bid came at $1.25m. Another with price guide $1.175m went for $1.6m. Late 2016 these kind of blocks would have scored much less, I’d say over 100k less. Non-duplex site has also been rising but at a slower pace. Duplex supply is seriously going through the roof with the numbers of duplex site being built and snapped
https://goo.gl/4NwWTx 1.25m
https://goo.gl/7kwlk9 1.6m

Seems like more investors and OO have realised the potential of houses in this area (named in YIP recently as a heating suburb) with express train line, large blocks, development potential and affordability (not so much now), especially when the media is bombarding the overpriced apartments. Anyone experienced in/ looking at these areas? What’s your take on this? Have they got more steam or this is close to the peak?

I personally am juggling between the knock-down duplex idea vs. a granny flat at our PPOR in this area as the first development project. There’s heaps more around numbers/tax to consider than the below but on a surface, what’d you favour? My thought process:

Duplex (budget 800k+ all up):
- should be more rewarding?
- speculation on price continue to rise
- require large capital, will be tight
- 1.5 to 2 years timeframe
- no development experience (but will learn a lot through the whole process)
- many duplex being built in the area

2 bed granny flat (budgeting 125k all up):
- More manageable fund required
- More manageable 6 months timeframe
- Less complex project
- Extra income will fund the upcoming interest hikes plus increase the serviceability
- Not sure about the CG in the short/medium run given the front house is clad 70s built

 

I work in this area and can vouch for this! 600m2 block in dowding st went for 1,178,000 Panania North.

Also $1,823,000 for a brand new house in picnic point 410m2 block!!! Ridiculous

Our office also sold a 45yo original house on the water in picnic point w water damage needs major major work or complete knock down. Massive potential - reserve was 1.9m and on a torrential rained out sat morning 32 registered bidders and 150 people watching on....went for $2,515,000 thanks for coming haha

 

This is the area I'm looking at for a PPOR when Sydney market cools down. Cannot justify paying these prices atm, will sit on the sidelines and see what happens in the near future.