NSW fires

This thread was posted in the Property Market Economics forum and was about the impact on the property market.

Alas, it has become yet another proxy climate change debate - and for that reason I will close it.

I will leave the thread with one last comment directly addressing the NSW fires and assertions from some that the majority were deliberately lit based on scaremongering reports from some parts of the media.

This article providing information from the NSW Rural Fire Service clearly backs my position that the majority of major fires burning in NSW were started by lightning.

We crunched the numbers on bushfires and arson — the results might surprise you

Only about 1 per cent of the land burnt in NSW this bushfire season can be officially attributed to arson, and it is even less in Victoria, the ABC can reveal.

...

While it is true firebugs remain a legitimate and serious threat, we crunched the numbers provided by police and fire authorities around the country.

...

NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) Inspector Ben Shepherd said earlier this week lightning was predominantly responsible for the bushfire crisis.

"I can confidently say the majority of the larger fires that we have been dealing with have been a result of fires coming out of remote areas as a result of dry lightning storms," he said.

In Victoria, where about 1.2 million hectares has burned, only 385 hectares — or 0.03 per cent — have been attributed to suspicious circumstances.

This state-by-state breakdown reveals the true impact of arson this bushfire season.

... (read more)
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The article continues with specifics about each fire - not general broad comments - but actual specific data gathered from the police and fire investigators who were on the ground. This is what I was trying to summarise in my own posts - actual real data from experts - not broad statements from journalists.

I will also say that there were two more deliberately lit fires yesterday morning in Lane Cove North - we were setting up for Little Athletics when a lot of fire engines went past. We checked with authorities who assured us that the fires were under control and so we continued with our carnival. Later in the morning the police helicopter did a slow pass overhead at low level - they were obviously searching the area. News reports have since indicated that police are treating these fires as a crime and have been searching for the people involved.

I will state once again - yes, arson is a problem - no, the big fires that are burning in NSW were for the most part not deliberately lit (notable exception being one in Northern NSW which was large, caused a lot of damage and was deliberately lit).

Arsonists tend to start a lot of fires - but they are typically brought under control quickly (presumably because they are mostly started near metropolitan areas, not in remote bushland).

If you count fire activity purely by the number of fires - I can see how you might come to a conclusion that the majority of fires are started by arsonists.

However, if you count fire activity by the size of the fires - hectares burned or buildings destroyed and so on - then you get a very different picture. This is the danger of relying on headline figures and statistics - you need to understand the raw data behind them to understand what picture they are actually painting.

With that - I will bring this discussion to a close.