NSW Nowra? Shoalhaven

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Mumma_K, 24th Jun, 2016.

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  1. babyboomer1

    babyboomer1 Well-Known Member

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  2. radioactive

    radioactive Well-Known Member

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  3. BuyersAgent

    BuyersAgent Well-Known Member Business Member

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    @radioactive where is that one sourced? Some inconsistencies from the regional plans I have previously downloaded
     
  4. JLK

    JLK Member

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    Illawarra-Shoalhaven Regional Plan circa 2014.

    Interesting that Manyana gets a specific mention as a dispersed green field site. According to census data (and observation) the existing dwelling stock is 63% unoccupied. Halfway between major towns and a fair way off the highway it doesn't seem like a good candidate.

    There is a lot of R2 zoned land and some infamous B1 zoned land there which whenever a sign goes up it seems to be graffitied over the same day.

    Sub-divisions are underway which I've heard aren't selling too well. Anecdotally there seem to be an increasing number of adjoining properties coming onto the market.
     
  5. radioactive

    radioactive Well-Known Member

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    I think it is from governments Illawarra regional plan. Should come up if you google.I will try to post a little bit later from pc.
     
  6. BuyersAgent

    BuyersAgent Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Hmmm, didn't see that image anywhere on the current pdf version or online version of the regional plan hosted on planning nsw website, perhaps it is an older version which was superseded.

    The lot numbers quoted in the plan are as follows:

    "Of the 37,600-lot capacity in West Lake Illawarra and Nowra-Bomaderry release areas, 19,200 have now been zoned for development: • the initial stages of West Dapto, with capacity for 6,900 lots (rezoned in 2010); • a majority of Calderwood, with capacity for 4,800 lots (rezoned in 2010); • the Tallawarra site, with capacity for 1,000 lots (rezoned in 2010); and • six precincts in Nowra-Bomaderry, with capacity for 6,400 lots (rezoned in 2014). Since the 10-year low of 218 dwellings in 2009-10, there were three consecutive increases in annual greenfield housing production to 2013-14. Seven neighbourhood plans have now been endorsed in West Dapto with approval for 2,250 housing lots, with 1,140 lots under construction"

    So... they have stated a theoretical maximum of 37600 for the entire coast BUT this will require new LEPs and rezoning of land. They have a current max (including Illawarra which is where the bulk of lots are) of 19200 BUT they had only actually built 1140 since 2009 (at the time of writing which has now past so one would expect the current number to be higher since publication)

    Remember rezoning land way out in the sticks to residential does NOT equal new developments completed and built housing in existence with thriving communities. Manyana mentioned above is an example of some new blocks of land with minimal infrastructure and the market reluctant to pile in and build. Eventually there will be some lovely homes near the beach which will probably hold their value but progress is slow. Land releases in Mollymook and Dolphin Point (alternative examples where the infrastructure is already in place) have sold much quicker and locals and boomer immigrants more than willing to build new homes and move in en masse.

    Even with a few thousand more being built if you look at the population numbers forecast there is an undersupply in the equation from what I can see. I am modelling population figures in consultation with the Shoalhaven Council Economic Development Officer - for the purpose of the Ulladulla High School Catchment currently (I am involved in a consultation with DET over the new school redevelopment) and there are forecast population growth of over 4000 (the high school catchment area only) with only around 7-800 available blocks of land in current LEP. The Shoalhaven total forecast is for 23000 more people.
     
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  7. JLK

    JLK Member

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  8. BuyersAgent

    BuyersAgent Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Thanks @JLK Ok yes this is the "Illawarra" Plan which was published earlier than the "Illawarra & Shoalhaven" plan so there are some discrepancies. I could be wrong but I believe the "Illawarra and Shoalhaven Regional Plan" is the main one these days and has a downgraded number of lots in Nowra. The progress report (2017) is available on planning nsw website here https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/-/m...al-plan-annual-monitoring-report-2017-11.ashx
     
    Last edited: 11th Jan, 2019