No Need to Speculate - Lets Look at the Facts

Im seeing 7% overall decline in 4 years

 

You can not rely on these stats, they are never going to tell you the true/real impact on property, I never look at this stuff, I only look at the numbers on the ground, that is how I keep it real. Stats are way too broad.

Imagine if you purchased in Mandurah, we are talking perhaps more than 30% drop from 2007, it has not recovered. See what I mean

Stats become meaningless, kind of like smoke and mirrors

 

....jobs seem to be coming back

 

Mandurah is not really Perth.

 

Mt Lawley is and median has dropped around $150-200K from 2007. Also shoots down the myth that blue chip is bullet proof, nothing is.

I could start working through it but it takes time, I am just randomly picking suburbs. I take no pleasure in the fact that the market is down, I have property in Perth

 

what can I say I live in Mt Lawley, if I don't know my own market, someone needs to shoot me

 

There's an article in Greg Jericho's Grogonomics column about the housing boom coming to an end.

Will the end of the housing boom come with a bang or a whimper? | Greg Jericho

Jericho states that housing finance growth is a leading indicator of price moves, generally a drop in lending is followed by drops six months later. So he's not confident about the market picking up in the near future.

This graph is for lending to investors, growth to owner occupiers is still positive, but dropping off.



Another point that's made is that houses have appreciated far more than apartments in Melbourne in recent years, whereas they should move in sync.



Jericho speculates that this might make houses in Melbourne and (to a lesser extent) Brisbane more susceptible to a downturn than apartments.

 

Doesn't surprise me. $1.2 million in places like Heidelberg Heights was never sustainable.

1 Calola Street Heidelberg West Vic 3081 1 Calola Street, Heidelberg West, Vic 3081 - Property Details

 

Houses have appreciated much more in this Melb cycle than units/apartments... Not sure why, too many apartments/units?? Don't know

Interesting the Melb boom cycle of 2008 - older units in inner city were the star performers. Stats probably wont show this as they are always too broad, but I was playing in this market

MTR

 

What affordable parts of Melbourne do you suggest with 10 year prospects.?

 

I like these charts- what site are they from?

 

Lets see....fast forward 18 months, markets in general slowing down, flat lining or falling

Syd and Melb, more supply coming to market

I guess Steve McK was right, he generally provides evidence/data to support his claims

Mtr

 

Just wait. It’s just the start. Mass amount if IO going to PI.

 

I’ve heard people say they will hold until they have to sell. But it’s too late when you wait until you have to sell. Market sentiment is a strange thing and property is an illiquid asset.

 

Coles got it right too.! Down down prices are down!

 

The problem is that buyers usually do not HAVE to buy.

 

Well, I will hold and won't have to sell. All but one of my loans has already switched to P&I which I have been preparing for for 3 years. I know other investors who are also prepared. Not all investors will be forced to sell.

 

That's exactly what I think when I look at property prices in Perth.

 

I get the feeling that because so many people are expecting a huge bust, a huge bust won’t happen.