Next Crisis ...

Silverson you and I are actually thinking along the same lines. I'm just describing what the bust will look like by way of examples e.g. fall in DJIA from 26000+ to a value with 3 at most 4 digits. You're right, once the bust is out of the way comes another boom.

I'll explain further over the coming days. By the way no offense taken. Off to bed now.

 

What a calamitous and remarkably specific macroeconomic forecast, I'm intrigued.
Assuming you put all your assets and leverage into shorting the Dow, you should be a billionaire by the mid 2020's if this all pans out...

 

I have started a new topic explaining why Labor will very likely win the upcoming election.

 

I'm also thinking along the same lines or a slow burn down...

 

methinks a crash of significant magnitude is extremely unlikely given there is too much "noise" and commentary/reporting/research into one, imo true crashes become crashes because they come out of left field, are black swan events, or after a huge run-up in asset values (bubble)

In saying so, on stocks, I once read that once every couple of years there's a correction (10%), once every half-decade there's a bear market (20%) and once in a while there's an actual crash - those odds are much more likely to appear...

 

100% with you on that.

 

What a load of crap.
1. The way things are going it will probably take 2-4 days rather than 2-4 years for djia to achieve that.
2. We are so influenced by overseas market, even God can’t predict where asx200 will be in 2021.
3.turning into cash I’ve been doing that too. Always easy to think how clever it was in hindsight. I’m not clever at all, it’s common sense to do that late in a bull market.
4. Allelection results and cricket results. Go to any betting website, look at the odds. They will concur. Based on poll and results of last matches. Not any rocket science predictions.
5.with real estate that is the big unknown.

 

Sorry I reread the post. Total load of crap. So OP is suggesting djia is to fall from current level of 22000 ish to between 577.6 to 1051.7 , representing a 95% fall.

 

India has won the test series 2-1. First time in 71 years. My prediction was made without reference to any betting statistics, following any form guide etc. etc. I don't even watch or follow cricket.

 

The above was your prediction, not India won the test series 2-1.

How about I also make a prediction.
My prediction is Australia’s summer will continue to be hot.
And on a 42 degree day, I will declare I am right.
By the way I don’t work at bureau of meteorology or listen to weather forecast. I’m not a greenie either.