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Newcastle NSW is absolutely booming

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Ald, 28th Nov, 2016.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    ok I give up, I am in :p
    seriously, I am checking it out
     
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  2. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    That's just last 3 months... wait till what's next 9 months had to offer..
     
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  3. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    really, you could be right, no worries I have a secret weapon...
     
  4. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Here, for Adamstown Heights I tried so hard to find a property that is :

    "Newcastle's inner suburbs and coastal suburbs have grown an absolute minimum of 120% in the last 6 years."

    Or a property that had increased 30-40% in the last 3 months..

    Can you show me a few sales in AH achieved such growth as you said..?

    105 Garden Grove Parade, Adamstown Heights, NSW 2289 - Property Details
    Sold 750k, Dec 2016.
    Last sale 525k, July 2009
    43% increase in last 7.5 years

    36 Faul Street, Adamstown Heights, NSW 2289 - Property Details
    667k, sold Nov 2016
    last sale 361k, Jan 2006
    85% increase in last 10 years,

    20 Bulkara Street, Adamstown Heights, NSW 2289 - Property Details
    740k, sold Nov 2016
    Last sale 677k, July 2015
    9.3% increase in the last 1.5 years..

    13 Boronia Avenue, Adamstown Heights, NSW 2289 - Property Details
    680k, sold Nov 2016
    Last sale 505k, May 2011
    35% increase in the last 5 years.

    74 Carolyn Street, Adamstown Heights, NSW 2289 - Property Details
    681k, sold Sept 2016
    Last sale Feb 2007 450k
    52% increase in the last 9.5 years
     
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  5. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    you should really pack your bags in Atlanta, and come to Newcastle :p
     
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    My niece is going to be upset they sold in I think Mayf e
    haha, I can do both
    I am going to check it out..;)
     
  7. samiam

    samiam Well-Known Member

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    It is really..... nothing here.....:p
    (p.s I am going to pick up one more but not in Adamstown Heights :D)
    @RetireRich101 - could you check
    Broadmeadow
    Lambton
    New Lambton
    Georgetown/ Waratah
     
    Last edited: 12th Jan, 2017
  8. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo renovating Premium Member

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    Serious question ladies, as our strategies are quite different. But wouldn't you be concerned about having missed most of the growth and possibly encountering some unforseen trigger? Of course, values could continue to increase exponentially and then you're way ahead.... but what if things slow down after July and values pull back to your purchase price and stay there for several years?
    Not saying this will happen but it happened to me with Frankston and I just had to sit pretty and pay off debt for a few (!) years.
    I would also love to buy in Newcastle but feel I've missed my opportunity this time around. Wrong approach?
     
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  9. samiam

    samiam Well-Known Member

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    I think Newcastle is actually at peak. I will only buy where there is to add value. The reason that I am buying now is simple because I live here and thinking to upgrade ppor.
     
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  10. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo renovating Premium Member

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    Best way of doing it, I reckon. (For toughies only!)
     
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  11. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    There lies the danger.. there is a high probability that a bust comes after a boom.. I know very little about Newcastle, but I know "grown an absolute minimum of 120% in the last 6 years" and grown 30-40% is a BS. If this is true I would definitely avoid the area as it's definitely peaked.
    However, for an isolated view of Adamstown I could not find a property that was sold with 120% gain in the last 6 years. Even Sydney have not done this gain. An high level overview indicates most Newcastle gain have done 40-60% in the last 6 years..
     
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  12. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Proof me wrong. You try to go to RE or Domain for the above suburbs, find the sales transaction in the last 6 months and their sale history, and come back with 5 properties in each suburb that made 120% in the last 6 years without a major reno..

    If my assumption is correct that it 40-60% in the last 6 years (more of the gain were in the last 3 years) then Newcastle still go some catching up to do..

    I think #2 is a great example of achieving this gain. However Meredith 2012 median was 712k, so I am not sure this is an corner case that buyer purchased well under market.
     
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  13. lightbulbmoment

    lightbulbmoment Well-Known Member

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    Has happened in junction areas.

    45 turnbull street 645000 sold 2012

    27 turnbull street 1320000 2016

    Both very similar, land size and unrenovated.

    If i coulf go back in time would of bought in the junction around here.
     
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  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    How long has it been booming, when did it start?
     
  15. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    yes per my post#52 I acked.

    Can you give me 4 others in the 500m radius that is purchased and sold with similar gain? Each suburb there are over 100 sales transactions per year, so this shouldn't be difficult to find.

    Not trying to derailed the post, but trying to gauge what sort of gain Newcastle actually did on a broader basis.
     
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  16. lightbulbmoment

    lightbulbmoment Well-Known Member

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    No i cant answer that,

    But there has been massive gain since 2012 everywhere.
     
  17. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    "Massive" could be big as 30% or little as 120%.

    If for an outsider that can easily find 5 examples in any suburb that didn't achieve "massive" gains in the last 4 years..

    If it's already done 120% in the last 6 years, do you honestly see it going further? It has exceeded Sydney growth...
     
  18. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    According to the stats, its been a steady climb in CG for at least the last 15 years.

    upload_2017-1-12_10-50-49.png

    Median house prices have gone from being in the $200K's 15 yrs ago to being in the $500K's and $600K's now. (I'm not sure where @Ald is getting his figures from) There are however, some standout sales results on individual properties that he may be seeing (that I have also witnessed).
    upload_2017-1-12_10-54-51.png

    In some suburbs, like Sydney experienced in 2016, sales volumes are down 25-50% and this fact alone is causing price rises.
     
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  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Let me give people context...Newcastle say 10-15 klms of the CBD has been growing well for over 2 years.

    What is now happening is the growth has spread further out and people are noticing. For example some of the Maitland suburbs which are about 25-30 klms are now experiencing that wave.

    This is a normal part of the cycle...as this is the growth wave out from Sydney.

    So what does this mean? It means that Sydney growth is now over the peak....growth will now spread to other regional cities.....
     
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  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    We had the opposite in Perth in 2001-2007, the regionals were the first to go belly up and then Perth followed, we do things differently in the West.... does not mean we are backwards or slow, just different:p