NSW Newcastle 2018

Yes i realise you have done that but u specifically said a few years ago being 2015 for 280k sorry but that didnt happen.

 

My apologies but I did not say 2015 anywhere.
My idea of a few years ago turns out to be older than that as it turns out. I'll take the excuse that I'm old Nevertheless, it was not as long as 10 years ago - only 8.

 

One thing we both agree on is that mayfield has seen exceptinonal growth since 2012 any smart and seasoned investor should of identified this would be killing it now.

I do feel sorry for the Fhb who grew up in newcastle and is now working there lifelong job to pay for there purchase who has just thrown down 600k on a little cottage on 300sqm.

Knowing 5 years ago this was worth half is hard to swallow.

 

Yeah but won't we all be saying in 10-15 year's time, Gee I wish I had bought more of those $600K homes that are now selling for over $1M??

I know I was buying terrace houses for clients in Dulwich Hill a few (OK some) years back for $600-650K that you now have to pay $1.1-1.2M for......and they need/ed a lot of work.

 

Hmmm what you have described is the greater fool theory that property continues going up up up as the next person pays more. Maybe if there was continued mass immigration , prosperous employment and pay rises this could work.

But the reality is the average fhb is already stretching themselves massively spending 600k when most people in newcastle earn the average wage of 1000k a week and all jobs will be through recruitment companies soon.

 

I still do think opportunities exsist in newcastle and surrounds to add value and make some dollars only thing is you have to be extremely on the ball and no the little tricks of the trade.

 

I'm not a subscriber to the theory of "it is all going to be different this time". I've been buying property since I was 23 yo. and (for me at least over the last nearly 40 years) with the properties I have purchased, I have seen real estate do its doubling thing every 7-12 years. There always seems to be a different reason why - cheap money, easy credit, immigration, etc etc but it keeps doing its thing. So I thought I'd jump on the bandwagon rather than try to hold the tide back with a stick.

 

Gotta be in it to win it

 

haha me too. I ended up reading it really fast like Willy Wonka and wondering if its how it is in Alds head.

 

5 years ago no one wanted to live or buy in Mayfield, even in 2017 I still had people telling me that they wouldn’t buy in Mayfield. 6 months later they would end up buying there as they were priced out of surrounding areas.

It will be interesting to see the next suburb this will happen to, Gateshead and Cardiff south have a similar feel as to Mayfield in 2012z

I paid $300,000 for an ordinary house on a corner block in 2012, this same house had sold in 2006 for $289,000. My brother in law purchased a place right near it 3 months earlier for $289,000 and I thought I was over paying.

 

Any body looking to develop in NCC i have

Good buy,

But u said it urself from 2006 to 2012 nothing much happened at all, and then from 2012 to now it has doubled people who think this will continue are delusional. If only windale could be changed to redhead west and gateshead to charlestown south it would boom!!! Lol

 

What you say ALAN is true, and I suspect the property will still rise next summer even further.

But could you please explain to me what will happen when property prices reach the ceiling that a $220k joint salary can pay for at 3.6% and then the interest rate rises to 7.6%?

Why was nobody paying today’s prices in 2012? Why was everyone saying that property prices were too expensive in 2012?

 

Sorry mate but the scenario you have just described is Australia. Except for the pay rises. Sydney population has gone up by 120k in 2017. Melbourne has gone up 140k, Brisbane population 60k. Unemployment is record lows.

I don’t understand it. From May last year stock exchange was doing nothing and all of a sudden everyone is optimistic? Newcastle house prices are going bananas because cashed up millionaires from Sydney are moving in buying houses for cash thinking it’s cheap.

But Newcastle definitely has the poorest quality old garbage houses of anywhere in the country. In Perth what you can get for 2 million dollars and in what suburb is incomparably superior to Newcastle and not a single bogan in sight. Why everyone is coming to Newcastle is beyond my understanding.

 

So Allan you really believe that in 12 years time NEWCASTLE prices will be double what they are now?

Could you shed light on a question I have?

Do you know if PERTH has traditionally been over the last decades generally a city that has had a higher median house price than Newcastle? I would really like to know.

 

Firstly, when applying for a mortgage these days with record low interest rates, borrowers are assessed at ability to repay based on interest rates of 7-8%. So they should in theory be OK.

Secondly, when prudent people see interest rate rises on the horizon, they take evasive action and lock in a fixed interest rate for a number of years.

Thirdly for the masses, they generally start making noises about getting wages increased as they see it as a basic Australian right to be able to afford their own home. Home ownership is still around 69-70% even today. Unions start strike action and employers begin to pay more.

 

This is what I see every boom cycle. Locals who purchased for $200K can’t believe that their property is worth $400K now. People that cannot afford $400K moan about how unaffordable housing is these days. Other buyers come in and buy for $400K. These buyers can’t believe their good fortune when the local REA comes knocking 10 years later and tells them he can get them $800K if they want to sell now......and on it goes.

 

For me to believe differently you have to get me to believe that:
1. History does not repeat (ok I am only going on my last 60 years of living on this planet)
2. It’s all different now because <insert 2018 excuse>.
3. Banks in 12 years time will not be interested in making money for their shareholders by loaning money at a profit margin to home buyers.

There’s always a chance it won’t happen but odds are in my favour that it will carry on as before. I prefer to position myself for the status quo to be maintained and life as we know it to go on. Better to light a candle than to curse the darkness.

 

This my LMC prop as you can see prices dont always go up looking at the chart. Same buy in price but hasnt seen mayfield growth by 100k.

Only thing is i got a good brick house with land area and double garage whereas mayfield would of got you a poor house which needs money constantly thrown at it and small land.

 

Was this you @Ald ? Remember you saying fletcher was a great suburb and you are looking.

 

What do you think it’s worth now?