National growth trends forecast - Qld to lead growth

Some good data below for longer term investment planning...

Projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics put the nation’s population at 40 million within the next 40 years, more than double what it was a decade ago.

The ABS projects WA’s population to more than double in the next 40 years from 2.6 million to 6.1 million, and Queensland to grow 85 per cent to 8.9 million.

NSW is projected to grow 45 per cent to 11.2 million, Victoria 64 per cent 10 million, South Australia 35 per cent to 2.3 million, Tasmania 9 per cent to 567,000, the ACT 80 per cent to 711,000 and the Northern Territory 77 per cent to 434,000.

Queensland is projected to grow 85 per cent to 8.9 million people by 2057 — with Gold Coast leading the explosion.

The city welcomed twice as many people in the past year than the also-booming Sunshine Coast, and conclusively outstripped Brisbane’s growth rate.

The rapidly growing Gold Coast is fuelling a national population surge, amassing enough new residents to fill a suburb every six months.

Social researcher Mark McCrindle said the Coast was growing far more quickly than the breakneck national and state averages — up to seven times faster in some suburbs.

“In the past 12 months, growth in Australia has been 1.4 pe r cent, greater Brisbane has had 1.6 per cent — but parts of the Gold Coast, like Coomera and Willow Vale, have had between five and seven per cent,” he said.

“Growth in Queensland really is a story of growth in southeast Queensland specifically and the fastest growth in Queensland has been on the Gold Coast.”

Regionally-specific data, including for the Gold Coast, will be released at the end of MarchMr McCrindle said while the nation’s capital city growth had been primarily natural — by having more births than deaths — and through international migration, the Gold Coast had an additional two “green lights”.

“There is interstate migration — there are more people coming into the Gold Coast from other states than are leaving, and you have intrastate migration — where you have people coming to the Gold Coast from elsewhere in Queensland,” he said.

“The Gold Coast is not only the retirement capital of Australia, it has got good affordable housing options for families that you don’t find in other cities.Knight Frank Australia director of residential research Michelle Ciesielski said growth on the Coast could also be boosted by first home buyers who had been priced out of southern markets.

“They’re saving for a deposit and they’re just unable to achieve getting that foot into the market,” she told the Property Council Gold Coast market outlook lunch yesterday.

“It is frustrating living in Sydney right now so I think that you’ll be seeing people that have been sitting on deposits looking to this market especially because of the price point.”

Mr McCrindle said the Coast was likely to continue to experience increased growth.

“Things like the Commonwealth Games are putting Gold Coast on the agenda — I would expect growth rates in the year ahead will be at least as strong or stronger.”

 

40 year projections! We'll have at least 2 more GFCs.

Maybe the high speed rail between Melbourne and Sydney takes off and few million people will live along the line to have access to either city.

 

Yes. Bring on the hyper loop!

 

How many people on PC scoff at people when they ask about investing in Coomera?

 

don't know how many? just joking

 

Hang on....40 million in 40 years?

Say we're at 25 million now...that's another 15 million in 40 years.

That's 100000 every quarter. For 15 years.

Are we really building a Cairns every 3 months?

 

Yep immigration...is about 200k per year on average pa....and natural growth is another 200k.

Divide that by about average family of 2.5 and you will need about 160,000 homes per annum.

 

Wow. I had never thought of it like this.

 

On top of that, bear in mind that cities with a growing tourism market will additionally need an increased supply of hotels and serviced apartments and also short term rental houses.

 

Most of those 200k+ a year (soon to be 400+) will get off the planes and head straight to Sydney or Melbourne, many with dodgy visas fast forwarded by agents and fake resumes.

It just means more strain on infrastructure and the only winners are the politicians besides the property owners in the cities. I know property investors. capitalists will love mass immigration but it's terrible for Australia. In the long term we could end up in a terrible situation. Think of Syria with all those bombed apartment buildings

if we could redirect the mass traffic to outback towns it would be much better.

 

Actually the 200k is mostly skilled migrants with serious skills and money. Sure some studies to work here. The dodgy visas have been cracked down hard...the days of doing a cooking course and getting a visa is gone...

 

Not sure about immigrants flooding in and getting 200k.. But do agree that thosr that do will be the cream.
And yes, as above, they will likely not fool with the likes of Brisbane - will goto Sydney and Mel.

 

They will as it is harder for them to get approval if they select Sydney or Melbourne as their city of preference.

 

Select regional Oz and the barrier lowers greatly...

 

But they do not want to go there, too many racist skips who are not crippled by political correctness yet

If they do go, it is for the min required time, then straight to a big capital city.

 

Is this net or excluding the people who die leaving empty houses?

 

Net....work the numbers...by 2030 we will have about 30 million people...we are at 24m today.

So that is 6million growth.......but also need compounding. 13 years to 2030...so that is 400k people times 13 is aobut 5.2m...another 800k is compounding off a higher base....

I reckon we will be at 45m people by 2050....

 

Remember houses also "die" in that they become too old and get torn down etc and redeveloped. And apart from migration and births etc we also have a population that as a whole will be living longer.