Nathan Birch defaulting on IP mortgages...

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by hash_investor, 5th Jan, 2018.

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  1. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    Mum was very fit, and walked everywhere, but she's got osteoarthritis & needs a hip replacement. Was booked in to have it done years ago, but they discovered an aneurysm in her brain, so they won't operate. She's now in constant pain & highly immobile.
     
  2. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    I also hold Covey in the highest esteem. His book (7Habits of Highly Effective People) really clarified my 'paradigm' at a youngish age.
    (Sorry, not meaning to interrupt the nursing home discussion).
     
    Last edited: 16th Jan, 2018
  3. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Yeah very sad. Rather check out than suffer. Just surviving is not living.
     
  4. Brian84

    Brian84 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not defending them in any way but maybe she sold one side of the duplex to help fund the build.
     
  5. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    other half refers to her significant other:D
     
  6. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Yes that's possible... if she can actually get it built. Which means if she can borrow enough money ( I reckon 850K at best, but closer to 900K ) on a 63K income...

    And if she can achieve an alomost 250% ROE in 12 months.....

    And maybe she can... but I doubt it. Especially when there was absolutely zero evidence provided, zero numbers provided to explain how.....

    Here's why I consider it unlikely at best, and why I find NB's entire "thing" to be completely suss .

    She already holds the debt for the house she purchased. I don't recall them mentioning how much she paid. I'm going to assume 250K . That seems to be where NB clients play... She has to service the interest on that already. Initially she can rent it out as she waits for her duplex DA to be approved, but eventually it will be vacant as she has to knock it down to build...

    She will also then need to qualify for and service the repayments on a construction loan for the build... this will be an additional 550-600K in all likelihood. The entire 550-600K wont be drawn down on Day 1, but she will nevertheless have to service more and more debt as the build progresses, all with a 63K income ( or @49.7K net) ad with no rental income...

    if that's not already starting to sound pretty much impossible for someone clearing less than 50K, consider this; before any of that happens, she's going to have to fork out 5-10K for a cookie cutter set of plans, drawings and council submission etc... and it could run as high as 20K if she is doing a design from scratch. Where's that coming from?

    Oh, and she's going to pay 20-30K for site clearance costs... where's that coming from?

    And she will get little or no help along the way from mr Taxman as the dwelling is old and will offer bugger all depreciation... so.....

    Now, at a stretch, it's not beyond the realms of possibility using Liberty's "actuals" calc...except they dont offer construction loans , so that rules that out :)

    And then... even if she finds a way to defy all of the above , there's the question of 500K profit? Really? Now Im not saying it cant be donbe, but perhaps its worth considering that if those sorts of returns were possible every developer with 205-210K would be doing them... 205-210K of cash gets you
    20% of 250K "knock down" = 50K
    20% of 550-600K duplex build = 110-120K
    30K site cost
    5-10K cookie cutter fees.

    Remember, that's 210K in for 500K out in less than a year? Or looked at another way, that's @250% net ROE per annum, People with far more money, far more experience and far more knowledge than her cant get close to those numbers... geez, if even half of those returns were possible with such little risk ( its resi lending not commercial, so no presales required ) the banks would stop banking and start doing duplexes... insurers would stop being insurers and start doing duplexes... every super fund in the country would be doing them.

    I dont make these observations to be a hater. I dont have any tall poppy syndrome in me. Im all for celebrating success... but Im also all for openness and scrutiny and challenging BS when it is presented as genius. You will all know I sell a lot of property and like NB I am a huge fan of CF+... but what you'll also notice is that I can and do lay out in great detail ( for any and all to see ) exactly how the numbers work ( previously for NRAS and now for Dual Occ ) and whatever else your views are on me , my business or my views on property... I am completely transparent and accountable... I dont like that NB's numbers are swiss cheese erroneous at best ( full of holes) and deliberately misleading at worst. I dont like that he cant produce real people to corroborate what he offers them.
     
    Last edited: 16th Jan, 2018
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  7. JamesP

    JamesP Well-Known Member

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    Good on him. It takes a lot of courage and balls to go hard like he did.

    Anyone envious of his current position should've went out and did what he did. Obviously.
     
  8. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Yes I think there is some tall poppy seeds syndrome going on.

    The poor fella has been buried and the dirt patted down and yet all his vitals are still strong.

    So, if someone sneezes you grab a excavator, dig a hole, throw them in and put a slab of concrete on top?

    Maybe in the Druitt for an unpaid tab. But not NB.
     
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  9. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    @euro73 do you think that there'd be any merit in the girl preparing the site for development, and then selling it ready to go?

    Nathan strikes me as being more of a speculative investor, rather than someone interested in the fundamentals. His move into cryptocurrencies would seem symptomatic of that. It'll get you rich in the good times, but I'd be concerned how it'll bear up during a downturn.
     
  10. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

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    Context changes everything :)
     
  11. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Watchas...youse sayin'.....the NSW/Federal keystone cops banned growing poppies tall in the Druie....they reckon people were growin' it and using it to make heroin/morphine....that resulted in unemployment to go up from the usual 12% to 30% in the Druie....dems fair dinkum....:p

    The only slab they know about in the Druie has to do with beer.....:D
     
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  12. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    IIdon know what business he was doing in regards to crypto currency

    But surely whatever his "new" idea was it cant be looking too good now that crypto has had a mini/semi crash over the past week
     
  13. eletronic_exp0430

    eletronic_exp0430 Well-Known Member

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    Too many haters on here. At the end of the day Nathan Birch will buy out each and every single one of us 10 fold maybe even 100 fold.

    Stop hating on people especially young people doing extremely well and be happy for their success.
     
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  14. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    That's what he will tell you anyway, just like he told us to buy bitcoin when it was 100% higher than it currently is.
     
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  15. DaveM

    DaveM Well-Known Member

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    It's not that he is young and wealthy that people here have an issue with. It's the method by which wealth has been created that's the issue.
     
  16. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    .. and some people on here think he is full of ********!!
     
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  17. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  18. eletronic_exp0430

    eletronic_exp0430 Well-Known Member

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    Don't matter man. Business is business. As long as he is not killing anyone or dealing drugs seriously its not a big issue.

    Some of the biggest and most successful people in the world would have had to do some not so straighty 180 things to get to where they are today - but that's another arguement.

    Like I said at the end of the day he is where he is and majority of us are were we are. It doesnt matter what you say or do he will still buy out everyone on here 100x fold. Simple.

    There is some seriously bitter and envious people around when you are very successful.

    Be happy for what he has achieved from a young age and where he came from. He has done extremely well and congratulations to him. Hope me makes another few 100 mill.
     
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  19. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    I believe that I saw one person on here had 70 properties, so Nathan is going to have 7000 properties, is he?
    Completely disagree.
     
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  20. Westminster

    Westminster Tigress at Tiger Developments Business Member

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    I wouldn't even care if he had just kept using the method for himself. I'd give him the kudos for reaping the system for fastracking his own wealth.

    I have extreme issues about the riskiness of the method and that he used it on clients and I'm 99% sure they were unaware of what his method was.

    I help people spend their hard earned money on IPs. I take that with an extreme duty of care and I play it safer than my own investments unless they are adamant that they want a high risk project and then we go through it together with eyes wide open. No bogus valuations to make it seem like a BMV purchase has been made which allowed equity releases to purchase next IP. His clients could effectively have ended up with 120% or more debt on a property.
     
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