My posts from over 2 years ago about interest rates and APRA

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Tenex, 22nd May, 2019.

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  1. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    This is silly...Morrison and Josh are absolute idiots...they should have started the pump on spending...it might be too late now.

    Based on what I can see...the initial hiatus in Sydney seems to be cooling....albeit slowly. Rhe banks might ease up but serviceability and confidence is the real issue.

    There will be a cut most probably Tuesday next week....and the RBA is already signalling this might be too little too late. Interesting times indeed...if there is a major correction in the stock market in Oct/Nov it will get even more interesting.

    No body seems to understand the real issue...which is that 250-300k baby boomers are retiring over the next 10 years or so. This represents a huge pull back in spending..as they have driven consumption over the last 40 years or so. Interestingly....Gen X are a smaller group and are more indebted and the millenials are more conservative or do not have the capacity to drive spending like the past. This is what is affecting the economy....unfortunately...there will be slower growth over the next 10 years or so with lower inflation....but demand for smaller homes will be huge...anyone buying McMansions are going to be in a world of hurt. Small is more now.....in particular in coastal areas.
     
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  2. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    Follow the grey hair army - their spending power will determine the outcome.
    As well as China - the whom we must not talk about.
    Keep the ear bashing to the minimal, Right?
     
  3. Blueshoes99

    Blueshoes99 Well-Known Member

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    I need to see evidence on how you got to this assumption and then use your evidence against you to ensure I am right.
     
  4. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    "if there is a major correction in the stock market in Oct/Nov"

    Hi @sash. Do you mean the regular slump before Christmas, or something else, bigger than usual?

    Secondly, in my circle, every Boomer I know has no plans to spend any less in retirement than we do already. If anything, we are collecting inheritances and paying off our Equity Mates mortgage redraws so will eventually have the same spending capacity as we do now sans mortgages.
     
  5. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Nope the world is tethering on the edge....and I reckon there could be a shock around the corner. I have put my Super into more conservative assets.

    Well...you circle must be getting big inhertances...most boomers out of Sydney will struggle to keep up with their spending patterns. Maybe it is different in Brissie.

    The other thing is people who earned more modest wages say 80k combined..and keeping say 70k after tax would find that their retirement would be easier as they would probably have replaced 80% of their income. With say super of 300k and a small inhertance of say 300k. They would probably be able to have 55-60k in income. In Brissie that would still provide a nice lifestyle for a couple.
     
  6. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    What is your point exactly? :p:D
     
    Last edited: 26th Sep, 2019
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  7. Rex

    Rex Well-Known Member

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    C-mac, ChrisP73, Sackie and 1 other person like this.